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spdrun
ParticipantGovernor Prettyboy ordered parks closed, too. Here’s the question: California’s medical system isn’t overwhelmed, so what’s the goal here? Complete eradication? Even Newsom admits that it’s unlikely.
Beaches and parks being open shouldn’t be about businesses. It should be about people being able to enjoy themselves as much as possible, even during a time of crisis. Also, outside of very packed outdoor settings like stadiums, outdoor transmission has been deemed unlikely. When was the last time that you’ve seen groups of people within 6′ of each other on a beach? Groups usually have at least one person’s height between them.
Sweden has the right idea — accept some deaths as the price of not robbing everyone of their civil liberties, but have common-sense restrictions in place (high schools closed, no gatherings > 50 people, encourage WFH even if it’s not explicitly mandated).
Why are quality of human life and psychological health being discounted, and only mere length of life is being considered?
ParticipantWell, COVID spread seems to be declining in California, but Prettyboy Newsom decided to close beaches and parks anyway. I understand the need to close indoor places and crowded outdoor venues like stadiums, but thi is just Newsom being drunk on power and/or bowing to pressure from alarmist do-gooders.
“What we’re doing is working, but let’s kick people when they’re down.” Ugh.
Participant.
ParticipantI’m not discussing IT support at all, BTW, haven’t been in that world on a serious level for a few years now.
I’m only discussing products and services. This thing created an initial surge of demand due to WFH requirements, but this doesn’t mean that the surge is sustainable.
Businesses need customers to continue buying products and services. If the virus scares customers away from (e.g.) restaurants, they won’t be buying audio systems, won’t be paying for cloud reservation management systems as much, won’t be paying for builders to fix their dining rooms, won’t be paying for signage, won’t be paying for Office365, etc. Delivery can be done from a commercial kitchen in a back alley of an industrial area, why have a restaurant at all? Delivery services like Uber Eats may be net winners, but staffing levels may be lower, so there will be a ripple effect.
It’s not just one industry; I’m using restaurants as a simple example, since everyone is talking about it. It’s also not even about rules. I suspect that even after distancing rules formally go away, customers won’t be comfortable being close to others for months or more.
ParticipantShouldn’t a Braille club appreciate certain parts of the human anatomy more than most?
ParticipantThe tech sector doesn’t exist in a vacuum … service business owners and employees are a market for their products and services. Once temporary unemployment and bridge loans run out…
If a large portion of the population stops using service businesses because of fear of being infected (even after “reopening”), this will have knock-on effects that will come months to a year from now.
FOR NOW, certain segments of tech are doing well because there was a buying surge — people needed equipment and services to be able to work from home. This many be balanced out by increased unemployment and underemployment in the near future.
ParticipantThere’s no actual rule in NYC against going outside, though, and people are still going outside. Parks are still open.
Maybe thankfully, the virus is still spreading, albeit more slowly and petering out. Mass testing in NYC now shows about 25% of people exposed from 3-4 weeks ago (due to delays in development of antibodies). Error bound is probably +- 5%, so 20-30%. Hopefully, we’ll see 50% or more immunity in the next month — at that point, the thing will have difficults finding non-immune hosts with even basic hygiene measures.
Cuomo isn’t talking about herd immunity explicitly, but is de facto, since he’s said that 40 to 80% of people will get this, and he wants to keep reproductive number between 0.8 and 1.2 (linear spread).
My problem with what the state has done is that they haven’t done enough to protect the truly vulnerable. Thousands (up to 5000) of the deaths in NY have been in nursing homes. A state policy in March required hospitals to discharge COVID + patients back to nursing homes. This kind of policy is criminal, and I hope the people responsible for it stand trial.
Participant“Cold still be…” is that a Freudian slip since nipples are involved? Also, sheesh, if you want to see real-life nudists, just hike down to Black’s.
ParticipantThey’re nipples. We all have them. Most of us have used them for various purposes. Why “shocking?” Look in the mirror: you’ll see four eyes looking back at you.
ParticipantFiH, everyone is slowly moving towards herd immunity and seeing a vaccine as a backup plan. Cuomo just today discussed keeping the R-number of COVID between 0.8 and 1.2, which implies control vs total suppression.
Participant^^^
Because injecting bleach is soooo much cheaper and more effective.
ParticipantI’d be careful with the NY data.
Let’s look at NYC:
21% of people tested positive. That’s about 1.75 million.The test they used is (supposedly) an IgG-only test, where detectable antibodies may take up to four weeks to develop. We could be looking at data from the middle of March — spread didn’t stop when restaurants and some stores closed, just slowed down to an R0 of about 0.8.
We could be looking at exposure rates of close to 50% at this stage. Death rates could range from 0.8% to 0.3% assuming 15000 deaths.
NY state is also very split between the NYC area – 21% exposure in the city, about 15% in the burbs, and upstate, where it’s more like 3 to 4%.
As far as the disparity between basic R0 and household attack rate, is it possible that some people have either innate (T-cell) immunity to this thing, were exposed to other coronaviruses in the past that created antibodies that can also attack SARS CoV2, or they could have a strong enough innate response to clear the virus?
ParticipantIs that pronounced with a silent “k”?
ParticipantCardiovascular issues? Exacerbated by coronavirus perhaps?
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