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sdrealtor
ParticipantWe could see those numbers but this year will likely take a premium lot and location. I’m interested to see what buyers do on that lot. Wide range of possibilities there
ParticipantAgree, Napa was great last weekend and Vegas was great this weekend even though we lost the game. Did not run into metrosexual slumlord either
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Really interested to see what that house ends up going for as it is really the perfect lot to add an ADU and there’s a very good chance the buyer is looking at it that way. Would help to get an idea as to what someone would value a lot like that over and above what the house alone would sell for.
In case anyone is interested this is the house in question
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2878-Avenida-Cereza-Carlsbad-CA-92009/59308886_zpid/%5B/quote%5D
House in question just closed for $2M. Just wow
ParticipantYou won’t see it for resale in areas where people don’t buy it as often like in OB. You should check up here. I see high end stuff all the time
ParticipantNew listings 4 –
New Pendings of 10 –
Closed sales at 7.
Price reductions at 0.
Current inventory at 12 with median price of $912K.
Most of what is active is in multple offers or tenant occupied which is slowing down the sale – Leased through June 2022, uncooperative tenant wont allow access, shown with accepted offer only…good luck with those. There is virtually nothing for sale here and the 912K median is skewed by a couple overpriced properties languishing on the market but come Spring that could be the new normal.
ParticipantNew listings 15
New Pendings of 19 – less and less to buy
Thats -4
Closed sales at 31 –
Price reductions at 2
Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.4M
Almost sleepy time
Participant[quote=gzz]
*My periodic searches for rent data suggest the data quality is pretty low, with huge gaps from the various sources.
My guess is that Zillow will eventually have the best rent data, though the monthly rent estimates it sends for me on my condo have ranged from 2400 to 3500 in the last year, and swings wildly.[/quote]
Yes just like the sales data which may be even lower quality. But for rents they use big complexes that are homogenous units and about the best one can do. They dont sepak for the entire market but they are a good proxy and consistent over time which is much more than I say for sales data of heterogenous homes with complex terms more often than not inaccurately reported
Zillow will never have the best data. unlike sales there is no public recorded data on rents unlike sales. The big complex data is and always will be the best we can do.
BTW its ok to say I was mistaken from time to time you should try it some time
Participant[quote=gzz]
The decline in spending on travel, entertainment, and the like is temporary, so the “nothing else to spend it on” effect has already diminished and will disappear entirely.
I disagree that we’ll ever get back to pre-COVID levels on a lot of these issues.
I think these broad “fun outside the home” areas that ranges from trips to France to Applebees, will never recover.
Older people, even fully vaccinated, are frequently afraid to resume these activities. Others don’t like the additional hassle, like covid tests before you can come home from a trip abroad.
And on top of just older people, you have a lot of younger people who consider themselves immuno-compromised, and young people who are in regular contact with elderly relatives.
Then there’s the labor shortage issue. Restaurants in general have worse service and higher prices than before.
Here’s one way the new “nesting in a bigger home” is permanent for me. I spent a ton of money setting up a full home gym. This has both saved me money on gym membership and transportation costs to get there, but permanently increased my demand for residential housing.
What percentage of the population will never go out to the movies again because they upgraded their home theater system with high end speaker and an 60-inch TV or even a projector setup?[/quote]
I cant begin to tell you how big the resale market is for unused home gym equipment. Much of it is given away or tossed within a year or two
ParticipantWell that’s one way of looking at it but not the right way. I talked some friends out of buying and others into selling. So that’s not a case of them doing much better but rather missing out on windfall profits.
As for the cyst, it wasn’t there before it was there after. We’ll see after I get in to see ortho what’s necessary. It was a great show I thoroughly enjoyed but next time I’ll fly if I’m doing a one day turn around.
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=sdrealtor]
As for the “totally wrong” you followed it with a litany of excuses. You were wrong, dead wrong, not close by a long shot. I don’t understand why people can’t just take their lumps and move on. We all make mistakes[/quote]Mistakes unaccompanied by some form of explanation – good or bad – are pretty much nonexistant. Reasons, excuses, tomatoes, tomahtoes… where you stand generally depends upon where you sit.
Indeed, we all make mistakes. I’m sure, for example, you’ve made many mistakes over the last 15 years… could you point to a single one you’ve acknowledged here? Just curious… enquiring minds and all. You raised the issue after all.[/quote]
Sure! I’ve admitted to not foreseeing the rise in real estate over the last few years many times. It caught me completely off guard
Heck just this past weekend I thought why not take a drive up north to pick up some wine, catch a concert, grab a drink with a friend and drive back the next day. Five hundred miles each way. I’m too old for that. Now I’ve got a cyst in my left knee the size of a marble I’m gonna need to get cut out. I’m such a dumbass sometimes
October 18, 2021 at 9:48 PM in reply to: Zillow bought a house in a neighborhood where I’m active #823382ParticipantYoure correct. They seem to have been overpaying. As long as values are skyrocketing it was ok. Once things slowed they were likely losing money. I think they may have learned a lesson. It’s not easy and success flipping comes in the trenches
Participant[quote=davelj][quote=sdrealtor]The passage of time is what allows for those interventions.[/quote]
Agreed but that’s not what you wrote so I assume it’s not what you meant. Without the intervention the passage of time alone is helpful but generally not sufficient (over any reasonable time horizon). [See: the Great Depression and Japan 1989-present.] Interestingly, in the case of Japan, despite decades of massive ongoing intervention, the Nikkei is still down 25% from it’s peak… in 1989. But what’s 32 years between friends…[quote=sdrealtor]
Saying I’ve been totally wrong would’ve been enough;)[/quote]
That’s what I said in my previous post, verbatim. This last post was in response to your “passage of time” comment.Just to clarify, of course.[/quote]
I’ve written on this many times here. More than I can count over many many years. Doomsayers all too often look at things with a myopic short term view. Things which seem impossible in the here and now are quite possible given the passage of time. Time for interventions, time for discounted dollars, higher wages/inflation, lower interest rates and more.
As for the “totally wrong” you followed it with a litany of excuses. You were wrong, dead wrong, not close by a long shot. I don’t understand why people can’t just take their lumps and move on. We all make mistakes
ParticipantRich I beleive the asking rents you posted (you can correct me if Im wrong) are for large complexes which dont wait until next year. They are always on the bleeding edge of rising or falling rents so I think that takes care of #4 also.
ParticipantEmpathy
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