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sdrealtor
ParticipantJust noticed the post two up about layoffs. Im not gonna talk about layoffs because thats outside my realm but the idea there are widespread 7-10K mortgages is pretty suspect. A $1M loan at 7% is $6600. Up until the last couple years loans above that were still fairly rare and most taken out at much lower rates. In CA about 80% of mortgages are at 4% or lower. A $1M mortgage between 2.5% and 4% is $4 to 5K/month. Still a big nut but not $7 -10K.
In my hood of 1000+ homes only 16 homes sold this year which is about 1/3rd of normal. Sales volume is very low here and everywhere around town. Of those a quick check shows maybe half are $1M plus loans. So 8 homes this year. Sure there could be layoffs but even if all were subject to layoffs that just isnt impacting the market materially. And we have seen there are tools to fight this. Those folks still came in with big down payments and could be put in a 10/1 or 5/1 interest only loan to weather the storm. I just dont see a big distressed market happening anytime soon
ParticipantTwo weeks ago
New 4 (6) –
Pending 12(9) –
Thats -8
Closed 8 (11) –
Total houses on the market 67 (77 last year) with a median of 2.5M (1.95M). Two years ago we were at 31 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 66.
Seasonal pattern is holding. It looks like we will start the year with low volume and rates are trending down. Im thinking it looks like another year of low volume and prices should hold relatively flat.
ParticipantTwo weeks ago
New listings 3 (1) –
New Pendings of 2 (2)
Thats +1
Closed sales at 4 (7)
Total houses for sale 7 (17) with median of $1.125M (999K).
Seasonal slowdown continues.
There were 5 on the market 2 years ago with a 959K media.
We are where we were 2 years ago heading into next year with ultra low inventory. Difference is we dont have ultra low rates this time. Nonetheless its looking like next year will be another low inventory and low volume year.
ParticipantIve got 3 weeks data to catch up. Might as well do it all in one post. Hope the format works for anyone trying to follow it. I’ll start with 3 weeks ago and go forward from there
New Listings
9 (6)
3 (6)
10 (7)
New Pendings
11 (18)
5 (5)
10 (11)
Thats
-2
-2
0
So seems more in balance this year. Last year inventory was selling faster as there were more discounts due to uncertainty of further rate increases
Closed Sales
15 (14)
9 (5)
9 (13)
Same as last year
Total houses for sale with median of :
82 (82) median of 2.25M (1.9M)
83 (85) median of 2.2M (1.95M)
78 (85) median of 2.25M (1.99M)
The story here is it seems like there is far less panic selling among sellers and less discounting. There is no fear of rates going higher and if anything the sentiment is they will fall or stay the same. It should continue being a sluggish slow market into next year. Good for home values and another tough year for the industry with low sales volume
ParticipantIve got 3 weeks data to catch up. Might as well do it all in one post. Hope the format works for anyone trying to follow it. I’ll start with 3 weeks ago and go forward from there
New Listings
3 (3)
1 (1)
6 (2)
New Pendings
3 (2)
1 (3)
5 (2)
Thats
0
0
+1
So small data set but seems very much like last year in terms of balance
Closed Sales
8 (6)
4 (7)
8 (6)
Same as last year again
Total houses for sale with median of :
10 (23) median of 1.017M (984K)
6 (22) median of 1.017M (999K)
8 (18) median of 1.087M (999K)
Overall the story is similar action as last year but with a lot less inventory on the market. That seems likely to persist
ParticipantYour timing is exquisite as the new Case Shiller was just released! Long story short…. prices in blue states and cities are up and prices in red states and cities are down!
Especially here 🙂
now, what was that thing about demographics and destiny?
ParticipantAnd last week
New 5 (8) –
Pending 10(9) –
Thats -5
Closed 10 (17) –
Total houses on the market 83 (88 last year) with a median of 2.25M (1.925M). Two years ago we were at 47 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 101.
I think we are getting a little more clarity about what next year may bring. Not much coming on, new pending holding up higher than new listings and inventory falling as we head toward year end. It looks like the stalemate with low volume with continue and prices should hold relatively flat. Will keep watching as always
ParticipantLast week
New listings 2 (1) –
New Pendings of 5 (7)
Thats -3
Closed sales at 5 (3)
Total houses for sale 12 (24) with median of $1.06M (999K).
Seasonal slowdown has begun and should continue. Inventory should drift down as we head to year end
There were 14 on the market 2 years ago with a 950K media. This was when things under 900 became a bargain and the median spiked above 900K never to return
ParticipantAnd last week
New 7 (6) –
Pending 13(12) –
Thats -6
Closed 11 (15) –
Total houses on the market 89 (93 last year) with a median of 2.25M (1.925M). Two years ago we were at 48 and in 2020 during pandemic peak impact we were at 86.
Heading into sleepy time for the market. Not much going on, high percentage of cash buyers and one story homes sold. Inventory should continue dropping into year end.
There are not clear signs about what next year will bring. Prices creeping down seasonally, sales volume very low but interest rates fell a good bit last week. Large layoffs around town at some of the bigger employers like Viasat and QCOM could shake loose some additional inventory but I dont anticipate it causing distress sales. People have lots of equity and most are locked into very low rate loans. More than anything I expect volume to continue to be low and the industry to struggle more
Participantforgot to post data from two weeks ago so here it comes.
New 12 (6) –
Pending 9(19) –
Thats +3
Closed 3 (8) –
I got busy and didnt get a chance to run total actives but pretty sure it wouldve been at or over 100 and the high point for the year. Kinda of ominous for it to happen this late as it usually peaks between Mid July and Mid August. Anecdotally things are sitting and sales skew toward cash purchases of one story homes. I think we all know what that means.
ParticipantLast week
New listings 2 (7) –
New Pendings of 6 (7)
Thats -4
Closed sales at 3 (2)
Total houses for sale 12 (31) with median of $1.075M (957K).
There were 18 on the market 2 years ago with a 857K median
Gonna keep watching for evidence of a boomer liquidation but for now we should be heading into the seasonal slow down and it began this week. Shouldnt see much in the way of new listings while active inventory dwindles through sales and sellers taking a holiday break through the year end
ParticipantI really like Logan and think he does a nice job understanding things as they really are in real estate
ParticipantMy take is NAR did an extremely poor job defending the industry. There is IMO a fair bit of cooperation/collusion to keep the commission scales in place because the industry cannot survive without them. Yes the business model is far from perfect. But no sustainable and viable alternative has ever emerged to replace it.
If I had to guess there will be appeals that drag on for longer than Im around. But either way it doesnt impact me much. Ive diversified my income over the last few years. Real estate sales are an insignificant portion of my cash flow today and going forward by design. Im always a year or two ahead of the industry so I saw this and more coming. Ive been preparing for this the last 20 years.
If it does have an impact I suspect it will be felt most acutely by buyers that will have a greatly reduced opportunity for quality representation. Sellers wont save much, prices wont change because of this and buyers will get increasingly screwed over.
Sorry svelte but its not fake news to me. Its merely theatre
Speaking of which its time for a Redfin update. My original post was once again prescient. The stock was in double digits (around $14) when I first posted and has been dropping the 3 months since. It is now under $5. I profited handsomely from this all. Tomorrow is their earnings release and I am expecting a very sad ugly report. They are down over 1500 agents in the last year with lots more cuts coming. Last week they announced the official pilot of Redfin Max which is the swan song for their employed agents. You should reach out to your friend and suggest brushing up that resume
ParticipantI usually run numbers in afternoon so sorry for the break from that but Ive got time
New listings 8 (4) –
New Pendings of 3 (3)
Thats +5
Closed sales at 1 (5)
Total houses for sale 14 (27) with median of $1.025M (945K).
There were 17 on the market 2 years ago with a 900K median
The 8 new listings were a big number for this time of year and I went digging. I found something that Im gonna make an early call on at least in MM.
Of the 8 new listings, 7 of them were owned 20+ years by the seller or their heirs. The one that wasnt was a flip bought a month ago from the heirs of a long time owner.
Welcome to the Boomer Liquidation! It has begun here.
As long as Ive been doing this I have learned that when the market data is telling me something I should listen the first time. Im listening now.
Whether its a trickle or a flow is TBD. Whether it will impact pricing? Unknown. But its good news for MM. There are too many rundown homes that need to change hands for the area to continue gentrifying. This seems to be the beginning of a notable shift up in boomer liquidations. Party on!
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