[sdrealtor]

Agreed, FWIW I just did a pre-check on what my inventory update will look like tomorrow. The top line preview is no one wants to sell their house

[sdrealtor]

Correct, the stock market is forward looking. Quite often when the event happens the market soars because it was not the worst case priced into the market

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=sdrealtor]
The part that I think is hard to argue against is the fed stepping in and bolstering the economy rather than let it crash.[/quote]

That wasn’t the argument though… it was that the Fed would act to prevent a stock market crash, inflation be damned. (Or that’s how I read it anyway).[/quote]

I guess I read it differently and think we will have a Fed actively working to prevent major market and economy crashes for quite some time

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I don’t think it’s hard to argue against that. They were able to stimulate so much in previous cycles because inflation stayed low. Now inflation has blown well past their target level. They can’t use the same playbook UNLESS inflation behaves and comes down on its own pretty quickly.

I disagree with the idea that the Fed doesn’t care about inflation and will just pump no matter what. They take inflation quite seriously; it’s 1/2 of their dual mandate (and it’s an issue voters care about, so politicians will hold their feet to the fire). They’ve been wrong about the transitory-ness so far, but making a mistake is different from not caring about it.

So, I think “the Fed is just going to print money and let inflation run wild” is actually a pretty easy thesis to argue against.

I guess we’ll see.[/quote]

The part that I think is hard to argue against is the fed stepping in and bolstering the economy rather than let it crash.

[sdrealtor]

Hard to argue against that

[sdrealtor]

I can’t imagine them going much higher either but couldn’t imagine what happened last year. I’m done trying to predict anything more than direction. With so much demand we can only go one direction. Last year I talked a lot about where I live changing. I expect that to continue but don’t know how far or how fast. Either way I’ll be following from my front row seat and sharing what I see

When this thread started the S&P was at 3000. Even with a 5% pullback the last few weeks it’s still 50% above June 2020. Another 10% drop would not even scratch the surface of getting us close to even from there let alone a major crash from that level. Now with the benefit of hindsight it was one of the worst calls ever on this site.

[sdrealtor]

I’ve seen agents use that language for over a decade. Now Next Door allows you all to see it too

[sdrealtor]

New listings 17 (14) – encouraging start to see new listings back up

New Pendings of 13 (22) – not much to buy and will take a little more time to catch up with last year

Thats +4

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 29 with median of $2.2M.

In some ways its encouraging to see more new listings but most are high end, very small or pushing price. Just looked for 4/3 2400 sq ft + up to 1.75M in all 4 Carlsbad zips or 92078. Based upon running similar a couple days back knew I could count em on 1 hand. I still have all my fingers. Nothing

Need the tide to come in

[sdrealtor]

And so it begins in earnest

New listings 3 (6) – not many, half last year

New Pendings of 2 (11) – nothing to buy

Closed sales at 6 –

Current inventory at 2 with median of 792K. Both small and likely sell over 800K

Keep it coming!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]

That’s real estate. The original post was about the stock market.

What you could be seeing right now is either people moving $$ out of stock and into hard assets like homes, or perhaps people rushing to beat the rate hikes. Also, home prices are usually sticky on the way down so they’ll be a trailing indicator.

But the stock market could be in a momentary blip. It could return skyward tomorrow. Who knows.[/quote]

Actually the original post was all risk assets which includes real estate. He addressed real estate a bunch in his manifesto. He meant everything!

Stocks are responding to higher interest rates right now. Its earning season and lets see what happens. The bears have been wanting a pullback and are pushing what levers they have. not gonna say market will come storming back but I think this sell off will prove to be overdone and short lived

What Im seeing is massive pent up demand that was not satisfied last year with new demand piling on top. Buckle up!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Escoguy][quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]

I have one in 92078, owned now since 2014.

Same model as mine, just increased today by $154K and is pending at 1.45M.
3400 sf 5BR

While it does feel good to see these numbers, it isn’t entirely unexpected that this could happen (one day), the speed is the surprising factor.

So, yes, this market looks like it has a ways to go. The home had 136 saves and over 3000 views.

If all 136 of the saves are out of town buyers, then all sub 1.5M inventory could be gone soon.[/quote]

A lot of saves could be market watchers including agents and neighbors. Many are not real buyers but more than enough are. There is demand for everything decent/priced fairly that comes on the market. Multiple buyers for everyone

[sdrealtor]

Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over

[sdrealtor]

[quote=bewildering][quote=sdrealtor]Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not[/quote]

Does the reassessment just look at vlue of addition? Or would it include land price?[/quote]

Land would not get reassessed only the improvements built and the increase is typically well under what they cost.

[sdrealtor]

Dupe

[sdrealtor]

Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not

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