Sell

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]

That’s real estate. The original post was about the stock market.

What you could be seeing right now is either people moving $$ out of stock and into hard assets like homes, or perhaps people rushing to beat the rate hikes. Also, home prices are usually sticky on the way down so they’ll be a trailing indicator.

But the stock market could be in a momentary blip. It could return skyward tomorrow. Who knows.

[Escoguy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]

I have one in 92078, owned now since 2014.

Same model as mine, just increased today by $154K and is pending at 1.45M.
3400 sf 5BR

While it does feel good to see these numbers, it isn’t entirely unexpected that this could happen (one day), the speed is the surprising factor.

So, yes, this market looks like it has a ways to go. The home had 136 saves and over 3000 views.

If all 136 of the saves are out of town buyers, then all sub 1.5M inventory could be gone soon.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Escoguy][quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]

I have one in 92078, owned now since 2014.

Same model as mine, just increased today by $154K and is pending at 1.45M.
3400 sf 5BR

While it does feel good to see these numbers, it isn’t entirely unexpected that this could happen (one day), the speed is the surprising factor.

So, yes, this market looks like it has a ways to go. The home had 136 saves and over 3000 views.

If all 136 of the saves are out of town buyers, then all sub 1.5M inventory could be gone soon.[/quote]

A lot of saves could be market watchers including agents and neighbors. Many are not real buyers but more than enough are. There is demand for everything decent/priced fairly that comes on the market. Multiple buyers for everyone

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Ive seen what happened with the few properties that have hit the market so far. Its far from over[/quote]

That’s real estate. The original post was about the stock market.

What you could be seeing right now is either people moving $$ out of stock and into hard assets like homes, or perhaps people rushing to beat the rate hikes. Also, home prices are usually sticky on the way down so they’ll be a trailing indicator.

But the stock market could be in a momentary blip. It could return skyward tomorrow. Who knows.[/quote]

Actually the original post was all risk assets which includes real estate. He addressed real estate a bunch in his manifesto. He meant everything!

Stocks are responding to higher interest rates right now. Its earning season and lets see what happens. The bears have been wanting a pullback and are pushing what levers they have. not gonna say market will come storming back but I think this sell off will prove to be overdone and short lived

What Im seeing is massive pent up demand that was not satisfied last year with new demand piling on top. Buckle up!

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]

Stocks are responding to higher interest rates right now. Its earning season and lets see what happens. The bears have been wanting a pullback and are pushing what levers they have. not gonna say market will come storming back but I think this sell off will prove to be overdone and short lived

What Im seeing is massive pent up demand that was not satisfied last year with new demand piling on top. Buckle up![/quote]

I just can’t imagine home prices going much higher. We shall see. WSJ said that the two largest insurers of expensive homes in CA (Chubb and AIG) are scaling back and dropping customers. They said replacement policies through other entities are costing 3 to 5 times the prior year’s cost. The article said typical homes over $10M often pay $20-40K per year and homes north of $30M pay over $100K. It is not clear if those are the old annual costs or the new annual costs.

As for the stock market, it probably won’t crash but we will probably see a correction (drop of at least 10%), not only due to rising interest rates but also due to massive valuations on companies that have never made a profit. Even the WSJ says that investors are getting real and pulling out of unproven companies. That is overdue.

That being said, if we just see a correction of 10%, that would only put the market back where it was when this “Sell” thread started which would make the prediction basically meaningless. To make it an accurate prediction, a much bigger drop would be needed.

[sdrealtor]

I can’t imagine them going much higher either but couldn’t imagine what happened last year. I’m done trying to predict anything more than direction. With so much demand we can only go one direction. Last year I talked a lot about where I live changing. I expect that to continue but don’t know how far or how fast. Either way I’ll be following from my front row seat and sharing what I see

When this thread started the S&P was at 3000. Even with a 5% pullback the last few weeks it’s still 50% above June 2020. Another 10% drop would not even scratch the surface of getting us close to even from there let alone a major crash from that level. Now with the benefit of hindsight it was one of the worst calls ever on this site.

[scaredyclassic]

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
Yogi Berra

[The-Shoveler]

IMO I still maintain that from now on no long term crash will ever be allowed to happen ever again.

The fed will just fire up the money printing presses, buy bonds to lower rates and send out stupefying amounts of helicopter money.

Only play they seem to know.
Inflation be damned

[sdrealtor]

Hard to argue against that

[Rich Toscano]

I don’t think it’s hard to argue against that. They were able to stimulate so much in previous cycles because inflation stayed low. Now inflation has blown well past their target level. They can’t use the same playbook UNLESS inflation behaves and comes down on its own pretty quickly.

I disagree with the idea that the Fed doesn’t care about inflation and will just pump no matter what. They take inflation quite seriously; it’s 1/2 of their dual mandate (and it’s an issue voters care about, so politicians will hold their feet to the fire). They’ve been wrong about the transitory-ness so far, but making a mistake is different from not caring about it.

So, I think “the Fed is just going to print money and let inflation run wild” is actually a pretty easy thesis to argue against.

I guess we’ll see.

[The-Shoveler]

Sure now that we are onto their game plan they will have to change Just kidding LOL.

I don’t know an economic downturn starts developing and push comes to shove I guess we will see like you said.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I don’t think it’s hard to argue against that. They were able to stimulate so much in previous cycles because inflation stayed low. Now inflation has blown well past their target level. They can’t use the same playbook UNLESS inflation behaves and comes down on its own pretty quickly.

I disagree with the idea that the Fed doesn’t care about inflation and will just pump no matter what. They take inflation quite seriously; it’s 1/2 of their dual mandate (and it’s an issue voters care about, so politicians will hold their feet to the fire). They’ve been wrong about the transitory-ness so far, but making a mistake is different from not caring about it.

So, I think “the Fed is just going to print money and let inflation run wild” is actually a pretty easy thesis to argue against.

I guess we’ll see.[/quote]

The part that I think is hard to argue against is the fed stepping in and bolstering the economy rather than let it crash.

[The-Shoveler]

Hmm how would the fed step in without firing up more inflation?

But maybe a deflation of sorts would set in if a downturn started, then I think we would come full circle and be back where we started.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdrealtor]
The part that I think is hard to argue against is the fed stepping in and bolstering the economy rather than let it crash.[/quote]

That wasn’t the argument though… it was that the Fed would act to prevent a stock market crash, inflation be damned. (Or that’s how I read it anyway).

[scaredyclassic]

Pretty sure the govt will just redefine the basket of goods to calculate inflation to only include cellphones and day old pastries.

Was shopping for a fancy faucet at Pacific sales. Everything was pretty much 500 to 1000 with a few outliers including a really bitching faucet for 6k. the whole experience left me feeling very poor. On the other hand, the 6000 faucet made the 500 faucet seem like a steal.

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