Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
sdrealtor
ParticipantJust some data to ponder over. I have been tracking 2 markets this year.
Mira Mesa has a population of about 85,000. There have been 33 houses placed on the market this year most of which are in same price range.
The NCC area I follow has about 125,000. THere have been 82 houses placed on the market of which about half are basically trophy properties above $2.5M so about 40 that would be purchased by typical working folks living in the area.
Long time owners are locked into mortgages with rates in the mid 2% range with a low prop 13 tax basis and many are sitting on gains above the capital gain exclusion level. THere is no major relief in supply coming anytime soon no matter what happens with the economy. My mortage plus taxes, insurance and hoa is less than the rent on a 1 BR Apartment around here now. I am not unique here.
It doesnt take everyone in a WFH job to buy the 5 to 10 regular homes that hit the market each week in either of these areas. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things but no good thing ever dies
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]That has been true since 2009. However, with 7% inflation they cannot get away with dropping anymore helicopter money. I HOPE we see the Fed is actually allowing a crash/recession this time. However, ultimately no doubt they will make sure the banks are bailed out as usual.[/quote]
FIFY[/quote]
My hope has nothing to do with it. Fed can’t print money forever. Sooner or later there has to be a crash in order to have another rescue and re-inflate the next bubble. That’s how bubble economies work. TPTB (i.e. WS bankers) control when the crash happens. Whether this is THE crash or not is yet to be determined, but there will be a crash.[/quote]
Bookmarked
Participant[quote=deadzone]That has been true since 2009. However, with 7% inflation they cannot get away with dropping anymore helicopter money. I HOPE we see the Fed is actually allowing a crash/recession this time. However, ultimately no doubt they will make sure the banks are bailed out as usual.[/quote]
FIFY
ParticipantPlease let us know when your rent goes down
Participant[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. [/quote]I seriously doubt if remote work has driven the housing market much. If it had, then for every area that went up, another would have gone down. But that didn’t happen. Prices are up everywhere. (Well, okay a bit of a drop in St. Georges Utah, but let’s not quibble about details.)
So claiming the end of remote work is going to kill the housing market doesn’t make any sense. If you really want to claim that, you’ve got to provide some data that shows the recent surge in prices is in fact the result of tech workers moving from SV to other places like San Diego. And sorry, but just because some people say that’s what has happened, doesn’t make it so. Show real data that the recent growth in prices is the result of tech workers moving out of SV if you want to make this claim.[/quote]
Gonna stick this here hoping someday we get an update to compare this to
https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/metros-sending-the-most-people-to-san-diego/amp/
ParticipantHad coffee today with a QCOM friend. April 1st they want them back two days. He’s contemplating whether he’ll agree. Key member of his team moved up north and another to North Carolina. Neither are coming back to office
ParticipantOcean beach is a tiny market. There are actually more Beach houses on the market along the NCC than there have been in a while. They are just mostly $3-4m up to 12m
2011 was outlier. The decline you see there from 2020 is the same in most of SD
ParticipantBookmarked
ParticipantX
Participant[quote=SurfAndTurf]Hey All –
Just informed by our realtor that our offer was accepted. A townhouse a couple blocks off Adams Ave in Normal Heights. We’re over the moon.[/quote]
Congrats! Something must be in the air as I just got my first time buyer clients in escrow today also. There were 20 offers and listing agent said he heard countless sob stories of buyers trying up to a year. I know they are paying a premium but they are buying at least 200k below what they qualified for and are near family who watch kids for them. It’s brutal out there and there are 19+ who will now face this new comp.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.[/quote]
Had a friend who just took the trip through St Goerge up to ski counry in Utah and it reminded me of our old pal EP. I figured id check in to see what is doing there. Todays weather is in the 30’s all day but at least he has his conservative politics away from CA liberals and his skyrocketing home val……ooops. Looks like they have hit a little speed bump. It looks like median price is down about 4% year over year. Well he’s got his family and that is why he really went after all. Hope they are all doing well.
https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market
February 23, 2022 at 9:55 AM in reply to: CA Fair Plan only insurance option in fire risk zone #823892ParticipantI have clients in Carlsbad that had to go this route 3 years ago. They got an amazing canyon/ocean view home and figured other options would become available as the impact of those NoCal fires pass over time. I’ll see them Friday night and ask them for an update
ParticipantMore of the same with market about half of what it was last year
New listings 12 (23) – running about half of last year
New Pendings of 19 (39) – multiple over asking buyers
Thats -7
Closed sales at 11 –
Total houses for sale 25 (49) with median of $2.35M ($1.99M)
Not as much overbidding on this weeks closings but may reflect the homes (more fixers then weve seen in a while). It looks like we are starting to get more of the bread and butter 4/3 2200 to 3000 sq ft homes than weve had in a while which should cause those prices to rise with bidding wars. It seems like yesterday those were 750 to 900. Now they are 1.4 to 2M up here
It seems like the market is competitive up into the 2.5 range and slows down some between 2.5 and 4M . There doesnt seem to be true relief from competition until you get to around $4M.
Side note, my client that is buying here will be putting his place up in OC on market mid March. Will be interesting to hear how it goes. Ill update once it does but suspect market there is much like here
ParticipantNew listings 4 (5) –
New Pendings of 10 (12) –
Closed sales at 3 –
Current inventory at 4 (5) with median of 945K (750K)
More of the same. It seems like 1/3rd of sales are off market fixers sold direct to flippers and 1/3 of listings are remodeled flips of the same. I remember shoping with clients Fall 2020 and we would run into the same 10 buyers on every new lsiting. Its gotta be 20 to 30 now. No relief in sight and median price should continue ascent
-
AuthorPosts
