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sdrealtor
ParticipantAnd if you have a better one Im all ears
ParticipantGold was not under $1000 in 2010 and that is more than 10 years and at best 2X not close to the 10X opportunity of a lifetime. Here you go this one up here closed almost exactly 10 years ago to the day on a 1/4 acre lot. In 2011 and 2012 over 50 homes in this neighborhood sold under $800K. Opportunity was everywhere. Zillow is probably about $200K low on the current value and it would easily rent for $6500 now. This one is closer to 13X
https://www.zillow.com/homes/2903-Camino-Serbal-Carlsbad,-CA-92009_rb/16712446_zpid/?
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got “liquid” assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry[/quote]
I definitely agree with you regarding RE as a good hedge. But you continue to throw out the tired opportunity of a lifetime line. As if someone’s life is incomplete if they don’t own a tract home in suburban NC San Diego. Sorry, not feeling bad about that. Feeling very good about my gold though.
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Just over 10 years ago you could buy a house in my hood for $750,000 putting $150,000 down. You would have enjoyed 10 years of stability in a wonderful place. Your PITI would now be about 50% of the current rent. Your principal would now be about $460,000 after paying a monthly amount lower than rent for the home. Your home would be roughly $2M so your equity would have gone from $150K to over $1.5M in about 10 years so thats 10X. You are locked into affordability and have created a good amount of generational wealth for you family. If that isnt the opportunity of a lifetime I dont know what is.
Or 10 years ago you could have bought Gold. It was about $1650. Now its around $2,000. How could you possibly feel good about that?
ParticipantWhat you keep passing over is the majority of homeowners sitting on fixed rate mortgages of 3% or lower. Most people would just stay put or rent out their home even if that meant having to rent elsewhere. Even if rents came down (unlikely to any large degree) we have inflated so much homes will cash flow very nicely. Whos gonna give up a 2.5% fixed rate mortgage when rates are 5% or higher? I’ll wait
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Ok you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime[/quote]
Not talking myself out of doing anything. You have a one track mind, the entire world doesn’t revolve around investing in real estate. My investments in precious metals are on fire. My baseball cards are up big too. But they will definitely crash hard soon. Don’t care, not giving up my vintage cards.[/quote]
Who said anything about RE, Im talking about everything. Ive got “liquid” assets that are up 20X in 5 years too. Good luck selling those cards, the posted prices are very different than what they sell for and unless graded 9 or above you most likely have nice things to look at. Ive got my share as well. But getting back to RE it is the most important hedge one can have in life. No matter what happens costs are fixed, tax treatment is favorable and ya gotta live somewhere. I would counter that anyone w/o at least an 8 figure net worth has not planned well if they arent hedged with RE. It clears the way to focus on everything else with minimal worry
ParticipantOk you just keep talking yourself out of doing things while I talk myself into buying more fermented grape juice than I could ever drink in a lifetime
ParticipantOnce again the passage of time gets dismissed. W dont need a crash to fix this. A moderate correction over several years would take care of it also.
Im fine with whatever and have myself locked in everyway I’ll ever need. Just heard Total Wine is coming to Encinitas. I may consider picking up a p/t gig so I can spend more time talking about wine. Certainly wouldnt do it for the money
Participant[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]
That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]Lol, just because we don’t agree with you that RE is going to crash for the reasons you say they will, doesn’t mean we are afraid of it crashing. Like I said, we don’t *need* real estate crash in order to have the opportunity to buy.
Bring it.
But since you previously talked about “selfishness”, it’s mightly selfish to wish others would have a financial turmoil just so you would personally benefit from it, after missing out the previous opportunity, right?
But *if* the economy crashes, it would interesting to see who can buy, if everyone ends up jobless..Hypothetically, if the economy crashes, and you end up unemployed DZ, would you have the financial means to buy a home? Because… For the finance turmoil you are hoping for, you are kidding yourself if you think you would magically not be affected…There’s always a financial ladder pecking order. It’s a question of who falls off the ladder first and how long people can hold on before things get better . Just like the real estate meltdown in 2008-9….Those that were properly capitalized then were able to buy then…Not everyone was able to though…Those that were able to hold on, are doing fine now….So…Be careful what you wish for…[/quote]
Good point FLU.I lost count of how many doctors and lawyers I saw move from Carmel Valley/Encinitas/Carlsbad to RSF, DM and LJ during the downturn. They kept their old homes as rentals until things recovered. A bunch I know sold them for more than the trophy homes they bought during the downturn.
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=an]sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready![/quote]
That’s the spirit!
A crash/correction will be a good thing for the country. I don’t understand why it hurts SDR and some others so much to think about it. If his financial ducks were in a row, he would be able to get behind a crash too! But I’m just pointing out the obvious signals are flashing RED right now.[/quote]You called? My ducks are very much in a row and my best years by a very large margin were in downturns. Who said Im not behind it? Im just pragmatic and reporting on what I see out there not what Id wish for
ParticipantOne thing I think gets missed is how small our market is. It only takes about 5 to 10 new buyers a month to collectively change/support our strongest markets. We dont even need new folks coming here to WFH remotely. Simply a change in preferences from local hybrid workers to want to live in a bigger/nicer home changes our market. There is so much going on here
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops[/quote]So these ibuyers, big Wall St. investors like Blackrock etc. are not influencing prices of RE? Plus all of the other mom and pop flippers and investors purchasing investment property? Give me a break. Didn’t you learn your lesson in 2008 that RE is susceptible to speculative bubbles? After all of these bubbles in RE you still believe RE is just a Main St business? You can’t possibly be that stupid.[/quote]
I cant speak to the country only here. They bought a small amount of mostly crap at vastly inflated prices. Had they not many of them wouldve gone to flippers. When they tried to sell them at above market prices they sat last year until lowered to FMV. Now that the market has spiked again they are getting bailed out to some extent which is actually IMO an investment opportunity for their stocks. Iv e sold hundreds of homes and have seen exactly how the market operates from street level over and over. You are sitting in a crappy rental praying for divine intervention having missed the greatest opportunity of your lifetime
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]
Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]
Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.[/quote]There is a difference between recognizing market conditions as unfair to many and taking advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime. Its not selfish or greedy its smart to take advantage of fabulous windfall profits. We cant change the market ourselves. Its not our jobs. Enjoy whining away Ive got a tee time to get to
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.
Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.
So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.[/quote]
Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops
ParticipantSD was on fire before COVID. Has the COVID market had an influence here? Absolutely and no one here has ever said otherwise. What we have been saying all along is that there is a lot going on here. Not one thing but multiple things that have been building for quite some time. That is why so many here hopped onto the opportunity of a lifetime between 2009 and 2012 that are now reaping rich rewards. I spent my morning running around CraneTown and counted a dozen massive cranes working in the Golden Triangle. They aren’t building houses, they are building jobs while others missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime
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