- This topic has 815 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 10 months ago by
Coronita.
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March 7, 2022 at 5:00 PM #824135March 7, 2022 at 5:52 PM #824136
Anonymous
Guest[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=deadzone]You can’t compare the 70s to today. The current asset bubble and subsequent inflation were caused directly by the Federal Reserve QE policy which has only existed since 2009. This was an experimental policy intended to recover from the 2008 financial crisis (and with real purpose to bail out the bankers and wealthy elite). But they clearly took this QE too far and the entire economy has been addicted to the Fed like a crack whore ever since. Then the Fed went into hyperdrive during Covid when the Fed nearly doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years
[/quote]Sorry, there is nothing in the history of monetary policy that compares what the Fed has done with QE. So if they do in fact reverse course, it will be an absolute blood bath in the markets.
March 7, 2022 at 5:54 PM #824137an
Participant[quote=deadzone]Sorry, there is nothing in the history of monetary policy that compares what the Fed has done with QE. So if they do in fact reverse course, it will be an absolute blood bath in the markets.[/quote]
I doubt that would happen. So, IMHO, you’re talking about the improbable probability.March 7, 2022 at 5:59 PM #824138Guest[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.
Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don’t understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.[/quote]
It doesn’t bother me at all. Why you might ask? Well the Answer is those personal investment decisions made 10-20 years ago that you think are irrelevant and I know are life altering. And you could’ve bought anything anywhere. I only use NC tract houses because that’s where I live. Had you bought anything anywhere here you would’ve capitalized on the opportunity of a lifetime[/quote]
Jesus f-ing Christ you are a broken record. The current financial situation in the world has nothing to do with me or any financial decisions I made or did not make. I am one person out of billions. It is just so important for you to make everything personal. It is not about me. The market will crash with or without my cheerleading, just like the bubble was inflated with our without your cheerleading.
March 7, 2022 at 6:01 PM #824139GuestWell if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.
March 7, 2022 at 6:12 PM #824141Participant[quote=deadzone]Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.[/quote]
Inflation was much worst in the 70s and the American people handled it for many years. We barely just got started.March 7, 2022 at 6:33 PM #824142CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone]Gold was under $1000 in 2009. And it was a good investment. In hindsight sure RE would have been better investment. But hindsight is 20/20. And frankly I am not and never was interested in being a landlord so it is a moot point and under no circumstances would I have been interested in living in a suburban NC housing tract.
Anyway, the point now is to address the current situation and possible bubble popping. My personal investment decisions 10+ years ago are completely irrelevant to the current situation. Not sure why you insist on bringing that up other than to deflect from your fear of the prospect of a market crash? I really don’t understand why the idea of it bothers you so much.[/quote]
It’s really convenient you picked Gold price in 2009 because that doesn’t tell the entire story of gold. Gold was $1000 in the beginning of 2008, dipped as low as $750 and ended 2008 around $800ish. In 2009, it bounced around $1000/ounce throughout 2/3 of 2009 and towards the end of 2009 there was a lot of gold speculation by folks that we running for cover to safety that pushed gold prices at the end of 2009 to $1200/ouce before settling somewhere around $1150…Gold hit peak prices in middle of 2011 around $1900/ounce… But since hitting that peak middle of 2011, gold went into a decline from 2011 to 2016 when it hit $1050/ounce.
Between 2016-2019, gold didn’t do shit. It moved between $1100-$1400/ounce back and forth.
It reached another peak in the middle of 2020, around $2100/ounce before falling back and now hovers around $2000….
You only made sizable gains on gold if you market timed and sold close to the peaks, but holding long term, it hasn’t really done that well relative to everything else…
[img_assist|nid=27533|title=gold|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]
It’s not really that great of an investment. It’s “safe”, but falls well short of what the stock market and real estate markets did…no doubt about that…. For example, here’s a subset of what prices of 1 ounce bullion was. It’s not that great of an appreciation.
[img_assist|nid=27534|title=gld|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]
Also, I don’t know about you. But unless you spend money to store your physical gold in an escrow account, it’s a pain in the ass to store it at home….
Also, oil is only good because of the war. It was in decline. You’re market timing…versus people like my parents my parents who had CVX since the time Texaco filed for bankruptcy in 1985 and keep them for the good dividends. Which is a great thing..
March 7, 2022 at 6:47 PM #824143Guestyes gold is not a convenient investment and really is more of an insurance policy in case the Fed goes totally rogue. That’s in fact why I loaded up on it at that point, because Fed was going rogue in 2009 with QE, bailouts, etc. Well it turns out Fed got away with parabolic money printing for about 12 years. Their run of luck does appear to be running out. You knew it couldn’t last forever.
March 7, 2022 at 6:48 PM #824144Guest[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.[/quote]
Inflation was much worst in the 70s and the American people handled it for many years. We barely just got started.[/quote]Yeah and the stock market is already tanking with just a hint of mild interest rate increases on the horizon. Again, nothing even comparable to the 70s.
March 7, 2022 at 7:26 PM #824145CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone]yes gold is not a convenient investment and really is more of an insurance policy in case the Fed goes totally rogue. That’s in fact why I loaded up on it at that point, because Fed was going rogue in 2009 with QE, bailouts, etc. Well it turns out Fed got away with parabolic money printing for about 12 years. Their run of luck does appear to be running out. You knew it couldn’t last forever.[/quote]
But gold has not performed well. Gold didn’t perform well up to and and until the Ukraine/Russia war, which was not predictable. In fact, when the fed announced raising interest rates, gold did not really move that much on that news. Gold moved a lot recently based on the Ukraine/Russia war.
So I guess where gold makes sense is when we have more wars???
March 7, 2022 at 7:37 PM #824147CoronitaParticipantDZ, don’t be like Larry 🙂
March 7, 2022 at 8:24 PM #824148Guest[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]yes gold is not a convenient investment and really is more of an insurance policy in case the Fed goes totally rogue. That’s in fact why I loaded up on it at that point, because Fed was going rogue in 2009 with QE, bailouts, etc. Well it turns out Fed got away with parabolic money printing for about 12 years. Their run of luck does appear to be running out. You knew it couldn’t last forever.[/quote]
But gold has not performed well. Gold didn’t perform well up to and and until the Ukraine/Russia war, which was not predictable. In fact, when the fed announced raising interest rates, gold did not really move that much on that news. Gold moved a lot recently based on the Ukraine/Russia war.
So I guess where gold makes sense is when we have more wars???[/quote]
Well gold wasn’t doing badly before the war.. but it would mostly take off if Fed does NOT raise interest rates. If Fed actually tightens that should hurt gold in theory. But on the other hand, if fed tightens, the stock market will crash and where would people move their money when they pull it out of stocks? Gold could benefit here too. Who knows, but agree overall Gold has been mildly disappointing but like my baseball cards I like having it and I ain’t going to sell it anytime soon.
March 7, 2022 at 8:26 PM #824149GuestI love Larry David and Curb, only thing funnier on HBO was Silicon Valley Season 1. That was comedy gold.
March 7, 2022 at 8:26 PM #824150Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]Well if the Fed does not reverse course, at least my gold will go through the roof in that scenario. But we’ll see within a matter of months, just how well Americans can handle this level of inflation before there is chaos in the streets.[/quote]
Inflation was much worst in the 70s and the American people handled it for many years. We barely just got started.[/quote]Yeah and the stock market is already tanking with just a hint of mild interest rate increases on the horizon. Again, nothing even comparable to the 70s.[/quote]
That’s fine, real estate more than make up for the stock market decline.March 7, 2022 at 10:14 PM #824151GuestThere is no way stock market crashes without taking RE market with it, and vice versa. Both bubbles were fueled by the same source.
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