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sdrealtor
ParticipantWeek 3 of January, all caught up
New 8 (8) –
Pending 16 (13) –
Thats -8
Closed 6 (6) –
Total houses on the market 54 (55 last year) with a median of 2.45M (2.1M). Two years ago we were at 21 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 50.
So much for the bump in listings, we are back to where we were last year in new listings and inventory level. The bumpy road continues.
ParticipantLast week (3rd week of Jan) all caught up!
New listings 4 (2) –
New Pendings of 6 (5)
Thats -2
Closed sales at 4 (5)
Total houses for sale 8 (7) with median of $1.08M (1.0M). There were 2 on the market 2 years ago.
Another decent week of new inventory but things are selling here as fast as they are coming on the market. Any decent updated house in MM is now $1M+. Houses below that get snapped up mostly by flippers. This is a healthy market that continues on its path of gentrification we’ve been watching the last few years.
ParticipantWeek 2 of January
New 14 (8) –
Pending 7 (13) –
Thats +7
Closed 14 (7) –
Total houses on the market 59 (58 last year) with a median of 2.3M (2.15M). Two years ago we were at 29 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 51.
A nice bump in new listings and we would need to keep this up to build inventory. We are where we were last year. Next few weeks will determine whether we can get enough to give buyers a stronger position or not.
ParticipantWeek 2 of January
New listings 6 (3) –
New Pendings of 4 (5)
Thats +2
Closed sales at 1 (1)
Total houses for sale 9 (11) with median of $1.09M (1.035M). There were 2 on the market 2 years ago.
Another solid week for new inventory. Still behind last years count but catching up
ParticipantSays a guy who did exactly the same thing
ParticipantHe can correct me if Im wrong but Id surmise nearly all of his net worth and retirement income was from real estate, Many of the folks I see leaving fit that profile. They have not properly planned for a retirement income to allow them to live here comfortably. They cash out, buy a nice big house (nicer than what they had here), bank the rest and try to convince themselves they are better off and its CA fault for being so darn expensive.
Many if not most of the CA refugees I see that left complain they got priced out here. But they lived here when it was exceedingly inexpensive. Had they stayed put and not given in to the temptation of refis and living beyond their means they would have been fine. Most are self styled conservatives that blame liberal CA without taking personal responsibility for their own failings. How ironic! The secret to living in CA long term is live the life you can afford and stay put.
I consistently saved and invested for many years, paid down my primary and kept expenses low. I am enjoying a very modest cost structure as I head toward retirement. I’m living where I have always dreamed of being and at no risk of having to leave.
ParticipantThis is a simple case of laziness by Econ prof. He throws out the rich people are leaving because a few high profile billionaires like Elon musk, and some Hollywood types stomped their feet on the way out. But of course the data like that you provided paints a very different story. He likes to throw around threats of data, but he has none to prove his case. All he has is his lazy rhetoric based on his political footstomping
ParticipantYou talk about data but never provide any. You present arguments that make no sense.
Pro Tip: Higher income folks dont rent U-hauls
Here is some data
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-plains/summary/blssummary_stgeorge.pdf
Wages 34% below national average
Top Employment sectors
Transportation (trucking)
Education and Health Services (non profit much of it government!!)
Leisure and hospitality (low wage waiters, cooks, busboys and dishwashers)
Government (more government!!)
Mining (digging holes)
Noticeably absent – Financial, Tech/Info services, Manufacturing
And nice of you to mention Phoenix, Las Vegas and Texas which are the 3 markets showing soft real estate markets in the country
People leave, people come. Ive been reading that same “everyone is leaving CA” article that gets dragged out periodically for the last 30 years. Prices are high so some cant hang and others who didnt plan take the money to fund a retirement. The winners stay and more come. The truckers, miners and dishwashers are heading to St George where wages are almost 34% below the national average with no growth industries. Moving there is a dead end. Give it a few years and you’ll have all the things you fled in spades
And you refuted none of what I said with data because you cant
ParticipantThis could be the most poorly constructed case you’ve ever come up with.
So high prices here are a problem but $800K there is not?
Have you been here lately? The economic expansion going on is mind boggling. Drive around the economic cores of SD (Golden Triangle, Downtown and College area) and things are booming. There are so many massive construction projects going on you cant count them all. There are cranes everywhere around UCSD, UTC and Sorrento Mesa. The airport expansion is masive and remarkable! Those who have not driven up to terminal 1 past what will become the new airport are in for a shock. It is massive! SDSU is expanding all over the place too.
If you see a 25K builder price reduction on houses like yours what you are not seeing is at least another $50K decline hidden via interest rate buy downs, free upgrades and more. The absolute last thing they do is drop prices! Things must be even worse than I thought!
The average working family buying in MM is working at UCSD, a tech company or in the life sciences core. They are buying a modest size home remodeled to current standards on an extremely valuable piece of land. When prices rise here it is the land component that appreciates not the house. In St George for a house to appreciate 250K where land is abundant and virtually unlimited they are paying that extra for a rapidly depreciating house. That is a horrible situation for someone that “I’m sure has heard of the idea that supply and demand determine prices” It is a recipe for a crash of the worst magnitude
The best paying jobs Jobs there are building homes which is entirely unsustainable. When that slows look out below. There is no long term economic engine there. Its just not economically viable
Sure we are losing some residents due to high prices but that pendulum always swings back here because we have a location people covet and a massive economy fueled by the most vital and sustainable industries (tech, medicine, biotech, telco etc) and the military!
People dont need 3200 SF. They dont need forever views of emptiness. They need a livable home and good jobs the later of which SG lacks.
Finally, you mention our property prices will stay high because we have so much more demand than our limited supply. Even if you want to live there its just not prudent to invest in such a fragile situation with endless supply. Its not a safe investment. Diversification!
ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite thread here.
On another forum I participate in here is some commentary from a local realtor in Southern UT (comments not my own)
At the end of 2022 we had 220ish homes on the market.
At the end of 2023 we are over 1600! I see articles saying builders cant keep up with demand. Yeah right
I am starting to see short sales hit the market in St George.
New listings starting to flood the market. Price reductions left and right!
Price discovery has come to rentals as desperate landlords need to get their places rented ASAP
Looks like all is not so well out that way. Of course, all entirely predictable. (This is my commentary 🙂 )
ParticipantNew 8 (6) –
Pending 8 (6) –
Thats 0
Closed 14 (7) –
Total houses on the market 52 (63 last year) with a median of 2.42M (1.95M). Two years ago we were at 21 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 52.
New listings still seem kind of anemic to me. Im not seeing any rush to the exits. Seller confidence is solid and buyer demand growing
ParticipantNew listings 9 (1) –
New Pendings of 6 (2)
Thats +3
Closed sales at 2 (4)
Total houses for sale 5 (14) with median of $1.15M (1.03M). There were 4 on the market 2 years ago.
We got a nice big boost on new inventory. Most of it is from flippers who bought during Fall when prices were subdued and want to get ahead of the market in case new listings start to flood. As unlikely as that is they need to keep their money moving as they are paying hard money rates and want to find their next project.
We are still starting way below last year with lower rates
ParticipantYear end wrap and how we begin
New 1 (3) –
Pending 5 (5) –
Thats -4
Closed 7 (6) –
Total houses on the market 45 (57 last year) with a median of 2.65M (1.995M). Two years ago we were at 18 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 45.
And so we begin 2024. About where we started 2021 and to a lesser degree last year. Gonna be a slugfest. My early sense from what Ive seen the first week is no one is rushing out of the gate to list their home here
ParticipantThis is how we ended the year and the start 2024
New listings 2 (0) –
New Pendings of 1 (1)
Thats +1
Closed sales at 3 (1)
Total houses for sale 4 (13) with median of $1.24M (1M).
There were 2 on the market 2 years ago.
MM has been on a gentrification push a few years now. Ive long believed gentrification takes a while for enough homes to be fixed up enough to really impact the market. neighbors need to see other neighbors enjoying their remodeled homes and be confident the values will support it. Rates need to be such that those with little to no mortgage will refi out cash for a full remodel. I think we are at or about to hit that point. MM has a very bright future and I see it accelerating its gentrification. It should be unrecognizable in 5 years.
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