[sdrealtor]

In a more typical market a house under not close to powerlines or backing to a busy street will discount 5 to 10%. A house this close would not but might take a few more buyers to see it to get a buyer that isn’t bothered looking at them down the street.

A lot that big can easily command a 10 to 20% premium in any market. After all most of what you are buying here is land value and more land is more value.

Zillow and Redfin valuations cannot account for things like powerlines with their algorithms. Perhaps someday they will but right now the answer is they dont. The only way they could is a house one or two away sold in the same situation in which the valuation of the subject house would impacted by that comp.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]I own a rental on this street in La costa oaks. At the end of the street are power lines. Yet this one sold for 3.1m (700k over asking). Insane.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7393-Sitio-Lima-92009/home/7488506?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=control&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet%5B/quote%5D

While houses like that generally go about 2.5ish that one had a huge nearly 1/2 acre lot with pool and entertainers yard. That and views are what gets the extra 500K of juice

[sdrealtor]

Not only did the stock market react to fed recent and expected actions but loan rates have also already priced that in. If the Fed raises short term rates 2% in the next several months that does not correlate to 2% higher mortgage rates. That’s not how it works

[sdrealtor]

[quote=flyer]With all of my wife’s projects in the entertainment industry, when not Zooming business meetings, we’re in the Los Angeles area once in awhile, and we’re hearing real estate may be cooling off a bit up there as well. Our daughter and her husband live in Malibu, and they are also seeing a slight decline in demand, so, things do seem to be changing in various SoCal and other areas.[/quote]

It’s literally been only the last week and in a small way. If you are hearing things I’d suggest an exorcism or at least a good shrink

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]sdr — Good color, thank you — I especially like the point about May… I will be very interested to see how May looks.

I’m going to quibble with your forecasts though — not the forecasts themselves, but your confidence levels.

“There is ZERO chance we go back to prepandemic pricing and the betting window remains open”. — Really… zero? First of all that’s not a bet I can take unless you’re willing to offer infinite odds. But more to the point… of course it’s not ZERO chance. Prices in any market can go back to what they were a few years prior — this has happened multiple times in SD housing and it could happen again. I’m not saying it’s probable, but to say it’s IMPOSSIBLE is wildly overconfident.

And also, re your interest rate prediction. Your last rate prediction that I remember, not too long ago, was that mortgage rates wouldn’t reach 5% in your lifetime. That probably wasn’t even a year ago — and here we are at 5% already. (Hence my little joke in the OP). Given that you are a young, virile stud with decades left to go — this was a very bad prediction! But now you are making more rate predictions! I will admit that this latest one was pretty circumspect… but still, would it not make more sense to just consider that you don’t have an edge on predicting where rates will go? (I will admit here that this is the route I’ve chosen to take, but ONLY after making many terrible rate predictions in my past).

BTW I’m busting your chops you here because you have claimed to have the best predictive track record on piggington. That may actually be true, for all I know! But either way — if you are going to brag about that… I’m going to give you a hard time when you whiff one, ha ha. Heavy is the head that wears the crown! >:-)[/quote]

Honestly I don’t ever remember predicting anything about rates ever before. It’s just not something I really ever gave a thought to before. I might have said I don’t expect them to get that high again in passing but do not recall making what I would consider a firm prediction. Also rates aren’t really my wheelhouse. I don’t expect to see them hit 6% but if they did it’s not like I’d fall off my horse. On the other hand I stand by my zero chance of pre pandemic pricing around me. Not to say it couldn’t happen somewhere in SD or that someone won’t find a one off sale but the general pricing level just isn’t going back where I live. No problem with the busting of the chops either. I take none of this personally. I have spent decades positioning myself to keep doing what I love in the manner I love no matter what the future brings baring a zombie attack for which I have no response but to run 🙂

And the bet is easy. Even money we do not see pricing levels here back at prepandemic levels which DZ said that would at least return to. The bet was for him but anyone is welcome to take it

[sdrealtor]

Ok got a little time before weekly SoCal economist call I follow every week. Two weeks ago I noticed the start of it on my NCC monitor but I always want to see a follow on for a few weeks because we have had plenty of false flags. IN the 3 submarkets I follow 2 are still roaring along but in one (NCC SFR) we are starting to bring on homes faster than they sell for the first time in about 2 years.

There’s plenty in escrow with much lower rates locked that will close in next 30 to 45 days. Then that takes another 30 to 60 days to get reported. We wont see any change in reported data until perhaps July.

There are two things coming at us also with opposite forces. Things always slow down mid April as its tax season. I think what Im seeing is more than that but its not out of the question that things pick up in a couple weeks. Which brings us to May. There is no stronger market here than May. Its the annual impact of relo buyers showing up in throngs to secure a new home to move into over the Summer while schools are out. Will this be muted by the higher rates? I think it has to be but how much is a complete unknown and if its enough to have any impact equally unkown. Unless we keep getting more and more inventory it will all go quickly.

Bottom line we are in a wait and see point as to what happens? Surely we have a slower market coming at us in the future. But if and how much that impacts pricing is a complete unknown right now. As always, I love my front row seat. I’ll be watching and reporting back.

I will also add that the mortgage market typically moves up quickly in big overshoot movements then settles back slowly. I think we needed to have higher rates but to have any real impact they need to stay high and for a longer time than guys like DZ think. I think the big jumps are past and while they could creep up a little more I dont expect rates to be much higher the rest of the year. Not saying its impossible but I just dont see 6% anytime soon. The movements we’ve had are enough to slow things down we just need them to stay here for a couple years.

Lastly nothing indicates large price declines anytime soon. There is ZERO chance we go back to prepandemic pricing and the betting window remains open

[sdrealtor]

Why thank you Rich! I’m out running around buying wine for the warm spring and summer nights as well as picking up tickets for a couple of shows I want to go catch. Lots of exciting things going on out there and definitely seeing the beginnings of fairly significant changes in the velocity of the market. It’ll take a few months before anything shows up in the data but I think we can pretty safely say that the completely insane sellers market is over. More to follow after I get done with the truly important things in my life But I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that 4.75% is the widely available and operators are standing by

[sdrealtor]

Jeez so quiet today

[sdrealtor]

No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Unlike you I follow data without bias and read what is happening. That’s why I have what I have and you do not. I assess things and have the confidence to put my money where my mouth is. You whine and complain while paralyzed in fear and jealous of us who have prospered. Here’s another example. When the world was frozen in place I followed what was actually going on with real estate locally and reported on it. Give it a read and you’ll see once again I was spot on in my assessment

https://www.piggington.com/march_2020_housing_data%5B/quote%5D

Again living in the past, and patting yourself on the back at the same time, two of your best attributes.[/quote]

When you’re right you’re right. Might want to follow the current up to the minute reports also. Some day those will be proven right too

There is no crash going on right now. Dems da facts

House Cat

[sdrealtor]

Im feeling the winds of change here. Still to early to say for certain but balance seems it may have shifted abruptly for now.

New listings 29 (19) – we blew by 20 this week.

New Pendings of 19 (28) – increase from last week but thats a good size drop from last year. Could be tax season slow down but we should be seeing 30+ soon. We’ll know in a couple weeks for sure

Thats +10

Closed sales at 26 –

Total houses for sale 51 (61) with median of $2.35M ($1.995M)

The slight shift I felt last week followed through and increased. Saw a nice jump in new listings. A bunch of them at what appear to be even crazier unrealistic numbers then weve been seeing.

Its been almost 2 years since new listings were 10 or more than pendings. Inventory jumped up close to last year and should be above last year next week. If pendings dont pick up and listings stay at current level we will get back to a balanced market by the end of June.

I could be wrong but i’m gonna call this the week that the extreme sellers market shifted. Nothing indicates a crash or even decline but the insane party for sellers looks to be over. In two weeks we should know better after we see what happens next.

Looking at the lower priced attached market that still seems to be red hot for now. Will keep an eye out on that also

[sdrealtor]

First signs of a change in the market appearing. Not so much here as up along NCC but next 2 weeks will be very telling.

New listings 9 (10) – this week was bigger last year also. Need to watch what happens next week

New Pendings of 6 (9) – steady with previous weeks but usually starts ramping up in weeks after tax season. Another thing to follow

Closed sales at 6 (7) –

Inventory at 9 with median of 1M. Last year it was 10 with median of 782K.

This is the time when we start seeing a step up in supply each year. Also not usual for pendings to slip a couple weeks around tax deadline before they start stepping up. Im seeing more of a change elsewhere than here but first time Im feeling the market has shifted its balance of power. Next two weeks will tell that story particularly the the second one.

[sdrealtor]

Unlike you I follow data without bias and read what is happening. That’s why I have what I have and you do not. I assess things and have the confidence to put my money where my mouth is. You whine and complain while paralyzed in fear and jealous of us who have prospered. Here’s another example. When the world was frozen in place I followed what was actually going on with real estate locally and reported on it. Give it a read and you’ll see once again I was spot on in my assessment

March 2020 housing data

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Welcome back dz… Glad you’re back when the market is down, like clockwork.

Meow.[/quote]

I don’t day trade like you, so don’t care. I point out the trends. And when RE stocks set 52 week lows, that is a trend worth mentioning on a supposed RE blog. Like yesterday Redfin set a new 52 week low. So why don’t you go buy some Redfin? I dare you!

Okay now you and SDR can return to your normal circle jerk.[/quote]

You only point out down trends never up trends. In your entire existence here I cant remember a single positive post despite being here through some of the greatest buying opportunities ever. Betting window is still open! Housecat

Two years ago I remember looking at some of the greatest companies in the world paying 7 to 10% dividend yields thinking this cant be real. Everyone is gonna buy them and loading up. If the world was gonna come to an end it wouldnt matter but if as expected the pandemic would pass it was a no brainer for all but housecats

[sdrealtor]

Just plant a tree

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