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sdrealtor
ParticipantPretty much every bottle of wine I drink is free. By the time I drink them I bought them so long ago I dont remember when I got them or how much I paid. So when I drink them? They are free to me that day
Participant[quote=JPJones][quote=Rich Toscano][quote=sdrealtor]Rich, you really need to get out more.[/quote]
Well, you nailed that one.[/quote]
Even a blind squirrel…[/quote]
Two great answers lol
ParticipantRan into an old friend yesterday who bought in 2014 but couldnt refi because his ratios were out of line due to support payments. His oldest just turned 18 putting him back into compliance to refi.
He was stuck at 4.125% and thought he had missed the boat. His LTV is around only 30% and he figured he’d just ride it out. I told him about Mission Fed. He went over this morning and was able to lock into a 10/1 ARM at 2.625%.
Between the lower rate and his recently improved cash flow he’ll have it paid off in less than 10 years.
Participant[quote=barnaby33]
I was actually pretty spot on but then again when wasn’t I?
At church, 2 weeks ago.
Josh[/quote]LOL
DB is turning 65 next Saturday. Gonna host a little dinner. Grab the Mrs and your neighbor and join us. Will see what I can do to make amends
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
First of all this is no bubble. Second they weren’t greedy or over leveraged they just bought homes for their families. Third they could afford and we’re not recklessly investing. Last they are responsible hard working folks that saved, worked hard and won’t just walk away. Your bitterness and jealousy has no bounds. They are the majority[/quote]
LOL, yes no bubble here! Just keep the blinders on, you probably said the same think in 2007 too.
When you say “They” are you referring to Blackrock, Zillow, Redfin, Open Door, or similar speculator? Actually the ibuyers have and will be the first to walk away, already started with Zillow. Just look at the stock prices for these companies is all you need to see.[/quote]
You’re delusional and bitter and jealous. I was here in 2005 calling this a bubble and you know that to be true. That is well documented as well as my nailing just about every prediction ive ever made while you have missed on them for a decade.
They are the vast majority of hardworking, regular folks that bought homes for the families not the one failure at that here.
The companies you named are not the housing market. The vast majority are regular hardworking folks you envy and wish bad things upon. You just arent a person to be looked up to in any regard.[/quote]
Bullshit, show me one post from you in 2005 (or 2006) where you called a bubble and predicted a crash.
Again, cheering for housing prices to go down is not wishing bad things on people. It is a good thing for society as a whole, and particularly for the younger generations. Should people who invest recklessly lose money, yes of course. You are probably in support of all the bailouts in 2009. If you invest in risky overpriced assets and you take the risk of getting burned.[/quote]
It’s all there in the archives. Are you that incompetent that you can’t handle the search function Larry?
Ok I’ll help and dig up my first post to see how I did compared to you
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Rich,
Let me begin by saying I have firmly been bearish on RE prices since late 2003. While there is no hard data this is what I have see anecdotally.Demographic Change
Lots of high income people moving to the area who work from home and/or renting office suites. This wont show up in any booming new business or local hiring. Older long time retirees with most of their assets in their homes cashing out and moving to cheaper locales. Wealthier retirees with substantial assets replacing them. Net effect is retiree population stays flat while the composition changes.Changes to SD
Rich, you really need to get out more. I just spent a nite at the Westin Horton Plaza to get away from the kiddies for a night and was astounded at how the city has changed. The very cosmopolitan city I found was a far cry from the ghost town I caroused during pub crawls in the mid-90’s before getting hitched. Drive around Carlsbad/Encinitas where I moved in 1997 and It is unrecognizable today. Good Restaurants back then were Taco Shops and a good dinner required a drive south to Del Mar or Downtown. Not any more! I grew up back east and SD might have well been on Mars when i told my friends I was moving out here in 1992. Now every one in the USA know what SD is about!Not that this justifies the price spikes we’ve seen but they certainly are a major factor in rising prices and shouldnt be discounted. As you know, RE is sold on the margin and while every house on my street couldnt sell for close to a $1M, one or two a year can. For the record, I think prices will return to 2003 levels and then settle there for a few years.[/quote]
Here you go Larry. My very first post and I put it on the record!
“ For the record, I think prices will return to 2003 levels and then settle there for a few years.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA
Sure looks like prices went down to about 2003 levels and settled there for a few years
I was actually pretty spot on but then again when wasn’t I?
Participant[quote=deadzone]I disagree that people with money don’t use leverage. In fact, people with money should be using leverage. If the bank is going to give you a 5% mortgage (or any other loan), a savy investor can easily make much more than 5% with other investments. Why should they pay cash for a house, that is stupid. I’ll gladly accept that 5% from the bank and turn it around into the stock market. I bet that in the long run I can make 10-15% easily with stocks or other investments. That is basically free money.
The problem we are in now is that lower middle class people are leverging themselves. In the past, these ARMs and interest only loans were only used by speculators who had plenty of money, they were just taking advantage of the system. What’s happened in the last 5 years is that loan standards have decreased so much that regular people are using these products. The difference is that they are using these out of necessity because they can’t qualify for conventional loans.
So bottom line, leveraging is smart for people who have money and know what they are doing. But today most of these loan products are being used by people who can’t afford a conventional loan, that is exactly what is going to cause the house of cards to fall (I agree with your 40-50% prediction in san diego).[/quote]
Post number 2
“I’ll gladly accept that 5% from the bank and turn it around into the stock market. I bet that in the long run I can make 10-15% easily with stocks or other investments. That is basically free money.”
Did not get 5% money from the bank, did not make 10-15% a year in the long run with stocks
“So bottom line, leveraging is smart for people who have money and know what they are doing.”
Hurray! You got one! Too bad you did not take your own advice. But we all did!
Participant[quote=deadzone]The better question is why are you even considering hiring an agent?
Most realtors I know personally are honest and intelligent people. However, the fact is in todays modern world real estate agents don’t serve much purpose. I would never go through a traditional agent to buy or sell a house, why would you? Why not go through a discount agent such as IPayone? Or even do the deal yourself? You will save tens of thousands of dollars at todays prices.
Nowadays regular people can get access to all the information on the MLS, the realtors have lost that monopoly. If you have access to sales history, comps, etc. why would you pay a realtor thousands of your hard earned dollars?
The fact is, traditional real estate agents are going the way of the dodo bird. This industry will be completely changed in the next few years. What amazes me is that it is taking this long for people to get with the program.
As a comparsion, look what is happening with cars sales. Nowadays every major dealer has an Internet sales department. You get your quote from the Internet, at a fixed discount price, and there is absolutely no haggling or shady dealing when you go to test drive and purchase the car. Both car sales and real estate sales are in the process of major reform, and it is great for the consumer.[/quote]
Your first post here 16 years ago.
Use iPayone?
LOL long gone
Traditional real estatre agents going the way of the dodo bird and gone in a few years?
Im still here as are the rest of us but you still dont have a house
Car sales completely changed? Maybe a little but mostly the same and today you get to pay over MSRP and as much shady dealing as ever
3 strikes on that one. Lets see if you did better the next time?
Participant[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]AMD crushed earnings..
No surprise there.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-delivers-upbeat-forecast-sells-202842121.html
[quote]
AMD predicted second-quarter sales on Tuesday of roughly $6.5 billion, compared with an average analyst estimate of $6.03 billion. That helped the shares up as much as 8.3% in late trading.The outlook helped allay concerns that the chip market is slowing — and signaled that AMD is making further gains on Intel Corp. The company, which for years lagged far behind Intel in computer processors, is on pace to end 2022 with almost four times as much revenue as in 2019. New products and better execution have helped AMD win over customers who were once skeptical about its capabilities.
AMD’s outlook contrasts with a recent forecast from Intel, which was hurt by an accumulation of inventory at some of its PC customers. The return of Covid-related lockdowns in parts of China also has squeezed the supply of components needed to complete devices, Intel said. Other chipmakers, such as Texas Instruments Inc., have said those disruptions are hurting growth as well.
AMD’s forecast includes a boost from its acquisition of Xilinx Inc., a deal it completed in the first quarter.
“Each of our businesses grew by a significant double-digit percentage year-over-year,” AMD Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said in a statement. Growth of the existing business and the Xilinx acquisition have both contributed to stronger full-year expectations, she said.
[/quote][/quote]So are you putting more money into AMD or similar stocks at this point? Sounds like a screaming deal right?[/quote]
No, because I still have a few shares that I bought around $12…if I held on to all of those and the ones that I bought under $3, it would have bought a heck of a lot more rental properties even at today’s prices.
That was another example of an opportunity of a lifetime since most people wrote them off for bankruptcy before Dr. Lisa took over But I was happy selling some at $25, then really happy at $50 and then really disappointed that sell half strategy each time sort of didn’t work that well when it went over $100, since I didn’t have as many shares…. But as the saying goes, better realize a smaller capital gains than realize a larger capital loss carryover.
Again, you’re really fixated on one hit wonders, while I think most of us are just mostly doing DRIP style regular investments into index funds ….. That’s what I’m doing right now even this day bimonthly contributions to index funds… Take the guesswork out of trying to always be right and in the end falling behind my peers …over the past 20 years….well, with the exception of my kids 529k and custidian investment account. That’s sitting 60% in cash right now since (hopefully) we will start using it in 2 years and we don’t think we will need more than what we accumulated and grown for college, and hence don’t need to take on higher risk for higher returns at this point. We’ve reached our financial goals for saving/investing for college. Actually, given how well things have worked out for the past 20 years for passive investments, we’ve exceeded our goals for college. Of course the irony right now would be if my kid goes to a 2 year JC first or gets a merit scholarship because then the question will be what happens to the 529 account lol. But at least the custodial account can go towards a new home purchase out of state or a good down payment in state..[/quote]
After losing so long he so desparately wants to feel like a winner but alas there is no gold medal at the finish line for him. All the while my dividends roll in and get reinvested to buy even more when we get pullbacks. Smart long term investors win both ways and build wealth over time. They dont buy gold teeth to melt down at the swap meet to make a gold participation medal
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
First of all this is no bubble. Second they weren’t greedy or over leveraged they just bought homes for their families. Third they could afford and we’re not recklessly investing. Last they are responsible hard working folks that saved, worked hard and won’t just walk away. Your bitterness and jealousy has no bounds. They are the majority[/quote]
LOL, yes no bubble here! Just keep the blinders on, you probably said the same think in 2007 too.
When you say “They” are you referring to Blackrock, Zillow, Redfin, Open Door, or similar speculator? Actually the ibuyers have and will be the first to walk away, already started with Zillow. Just look at the stock prices for these companies is all you need to see.[/quote]
You’re delusional and bitter and jealous. I was here in 2005 calling this a bubble and you know that to be true. That is well documented as well as my nailing just about every prediction ive ever made while you have missed on them for a decade.
They are the vast majority of hardworking, regular folks that bought homes for the families not the one failure at that here.
The companies you named are not the housing market. The vast majority are regular hardworking folks you envy and wish bad things upon. You just arent a person to be looked up to in any regard.
Participant[quote=EconProf]Thanks Flyer, and completely agree. COVID plus the ability to work remotely from home has upended decisions of where to live in many ways. It’s not just a San Diego vs. St. George issue. People are fleeing the big cities for both outer suburbs and ex-urbs (example–LA to Riverside County).
St. George has a building boom of big houses near our airport because of direct daily flights to LA so CA workers can check in once a month or once a week with their employer.[/quote]But none of that has anything to do with why you left. You constantly put forth subterfuge and strangely, like many, choose to take repeated pot shots at a California that treated you very well in life’s journey. I’m pretty certain you already or someday will look back and cherish your time here. You left to be with family and that’s a wonderful reason! There’s no need to justify it any further. You don’t have to put a beat down on California to make you feel better about leaving. You had the best reason already. All kidding aside I hope you and they are doing great
ParticipantNew listings 26 (26) – back up as we head to May
New Pendings of 21 (33) – pretty much in line with most of this year but it feels a little light. We have had a bunch of new listings hit recently and this should be up a fair amount next week unless the winds have shifted strongly which is a possibility
Thats +5
Closed sales at 22 –
Total houses for sale 42 (57) with median of $2.45M ($1.86M)
We got more inventory I was hoping for and pendings still feel light. With mutliple offers it can take longer to come to agreement but its feels like more than that. I think this is a bellweather week coming up. I can feel the cooling and think we will see further softening. But Im gonna let the market decide that one way or another. My feeling is it will and then the question will be how will sellers respond if it does. Will they lower prices or stand firm? Will they take less or take it off the market?
ParticipantI don’t say that the BLS says that. Take it up with them
This isn’t about Utah or California in this case. You left San Diego for St. George in the name of greener pastures!
Breaking news! Meth contaminated house sells for record price!
In San Diego you may ask? No but how about California? No! See for yourself!
In the home of the good clean government and lots of it!
Participant[quote=EconProf]Good question Coronita, and a simple answer: condos have no yard maintenance for me, are easily rented, appreciate at the same rate as houses, and are less likely to have families with kids.
sdr: not sure where you are getting a 10% appreciation rate here–mine have gone up 21.5% since July, and I’ve heard 20% is the norm. This will probably be a lot less from now on due to rising interest rates.
We are still getting an influx of Californians and the builders cannot keep up with the demand. Utah has an unemployment rate of 2%, so they are coming for the jobs, as well as low taxes, good schools (which largely did not close), clean government, and cheap housing.
But before you remind me–yes, I miss the San Diego weather.[/quote]As mentioned above it was per Redfin. So 20% lags SD which has been 30%. Id expect you to lag even more as your market should be more interest rate sensitive without the type of employment we enjoy here. Keeping up with demand is tough everywhere with supply chain issues so no surprise there. Unemplyment back under 5% in CA and 3.4% in SD as of March so same story here.I did find it interesting that UT has a high percentage of government workers than CA. Who wouldve thought that!
New state motto should be.
Come to Utah! Good clean government and more of it!
There always have been those leaving CA who couldnt make it here. No shame in failing, at least they tried
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