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sdrealtor
ParticipantBefore I post my update I just got this data from local board of realtors. Here are median sales prices the last 5 months for both detached and attached homes in North County (which is a wider area than my report covers but not a bad comp)
Attached
April 22 740K
May 22 698K
June 22 690K
July 22 682K
Aug 22 673KThats down 9.1% in 4 months
Detached
April 22 1.1M
May 22 1.1M
June 22 1.08M
July 22 1.02M
Aug 22 985KThats down 10.5% in 3 months
Ive been saying for a few over a month prices are down about 10% from peak and now have the data. I think once the properties that went under contract in Aug close in Sept it will be a few % more. By year end we should be down close to 15% from Spring peak numbers.
This data should reach the media soon. I suspect they will focus on the fact that prices are up year over year rather than what has happened the last few months. Will be fun to watch how they report this.
ParticipantDont worry the increase in rates is transitory
ParticipantThis is my home market. I have lived here almost 30 years and sold real estate here over 20 years. I know the area like the back of my hand. If you want my opinion of value you can PM and of course privacy will be fully respected. I also know some appraisers that have lived and worked here even longer than I
Participant[quote=matt]My LCO rental property zillow estimate is down 9.8 percent (232k) in the last 30 days. yikes :)![/quote]
Yes prices that people are getting now seem 10-15% what a few folks got during peak frenzy. I think this is good for the long term health of the market. I have said it s few times. I expect us to muddle through next few months then a solid but unspectacular Spring followed by another rough summer/fall. Then we can return to normal appreciation patterns
Zillow shows me down 9%. It takes a while for data to catch up with reality
ParticipantSmart investors land bank things like that. You could split it under sb9 and then build two very nice houses each with an adu and jadu. That’s 6 units. It’s worth what the right person will pay for it
ParticipantNew listings 14 (14) – still low they usually tread water now until Mid Oct and then drop so more
New Pendings of 22 (26) –
Thats -8
Closed sales at 12 (20)
Total houses for sale 122 (66) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M).
I dont think we’ll see inventory levels on par with last year here. I could see us getting below 75 but we ended up under 20 at year end last year. Thats why things exploded so much in Spring and why the give back has been and will continue to be so quick IMO.
ParticipantNew listings 8 (8)
New Pendings of 10 (10)
Closed sales at 8 (13)
Inventory at 32 (24)
Prices are down a nice bit the last few months but enough long time owners are willing to take what market bears. Inventory is staying flat for now but I still think we will see flat y-o-y on inventory here by end of December.
ParticipantI think we are entering a new era where “alt degrees” will be more common. There will be more online options. There will also be more “tech trade school” options. One of my nephews was extremely bright and thought he wanted to go to law school. Racked up some student loans, graduated with honors and once he finished realized he did not want that. Ending up tending bar for a few years while he figured things out. A couple years ago went to coding boot camp and now works in that field. He’s not gonna compete with the coronita and an’s of the world anytime soon but he’s on a track he likes, earining decent money and on his way. He’s a very bright guy and with time capable of whatever he cant get the training and experience to do. He’s also in a more affordable part of the country where he does not expect or need CA income. I expect more of that slower route in tech industry
ParticipantI loved FC. We’re still learning here there are just a lot less of us
ParticipantMy daughter may get it. Would cover half of the loans i told her to take out hoping something like this might happen. Her career might qualify her to have the other half forgiven. She’d get a helluva graduation gift
ParticipantI only follow SeH peripherally. In general 92011 should be pretty sticky. Most who bought two or more years ago have loans between 400 and 1m. Throw 3% interest on that and your looking at 1000 to 2500 interest per month. Rent for a 1br is now 2k plus. The drop in buyer counts will pull things down but i wouldn’t expect huge declines there
Participant106 still zero Apple jobs
ParticipantNew listings 14 (19) – still low they usually tread water now until Mid Oct and then drop so more
New Pendings of 19 (31) –
Thats -5
Closed sales at 14 (28)
Total houses for sale 124 (68)
Inventory still about the same. Not much new on the market, not much selling will be interesting to see when folks start giving up.
One thing I have noticed is quite a few sellers that have owned 1-3 years. This happened when I moved into my neighborhood in the early 2000’s when prices jumped. Bunch of folks new to the area saw gains they never saw back home, took the money and went back to live like a king/queen. My kids lost a bunch of friends that way
ParticipantGot a first ever this week
New listings Big Fat 0 (8)
New Pendings of 4 (9)
Closed sales at 8 (12)
Inventory at 32 (26) with median of 952K (867K). In line with an commment last week median is about 10% above last year.
I cant remember a week with no new lstings. Inventory stays flat with some falling out of contract and some that took a week or two off coming back to try again.
Gonna make a prediction. With new listings as anemic as they are at some point betyween now and y/e we will be at least flat y-o-y on inventory here. That would bode well for at least flatsville next Spring
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