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sdrealtor
ParticipantI agree there is much incompetence in my profession. I see it every day. I also see it in just about every other profession. The only way to survive with a flat fee structure is very high volume. Unfortunately, you will have to pay your employees very little and the competence level would get worse. With volume falling you wont be able to do the high volume part. Sorry but flat fee structures are already here and they are struggling mightily.
By the way Powayseller, sorry for the attack. I’m sure you have good explanation. Just wanted you to see what it feels like to be attacked by someone unjustly
ParticipantI have no voice in the media as no one ever asked me but I have consistently voiced my concerns to my piers and my clients. The answer if its a good time to buy really depends upon when it was asked and what the individuals specific reasons are. For some the answer was yes. For many, the answer was no. I have about 6 clients that I have discouraged from buying. They are waiting on the sidelines per my recommendation and will buy when the time is right. You know nothing about me and your inferred attacks are unwarranted. gFear of getting priced out was never a good reason to buy and I’ve never sold a home to a client for that reason. All my clients buy homes for their families to live in and I’ve never serviced the investor market.
Its clear you despise realtors and blame them for rising prices. When a house sells for too little it’s the realtors fault, when prices skyrocket you blame realtors. You truly give us too much credit. This is America and it is a free market economy. Supply and demand drive prices. Excess demand sent prices up and excess supply are now bringing them down. Sorry but I dont have the ability to manipulate prices. Do you despise car dealers for selling over priced luxury vehicles that depreciate 30% the minute you drive them off the lot? Do you despise the fast food restaurants that are poisoning our children? Do you really beleive a major crash will “benefit ALL of us” or just the folks out there that got out and are hoping to buy back in at lower prices. Do you really beleive widespread foreclosures and bankruptcies would be for the greater good? I for one do not wish that on anyone.
Sorry for the rant, but you back me in a corner and I’ll come out swinging………
ParticipantPowayseller you should feel guilty about the sale of your home. You find it easy to attack me, my ethics and my profession. How do you justify selling a “Poway Home” with a Lakeside mailing address (per the tax records) and advertising it as having 2293 sq ft when its listed in the tax records at 1658 sq ft? It was advertised as 1658 sq ft when you bought it in 2000. Perhaps there are unpermitted additions but I don’t see them mentioned anywhere in the listing. Of course, you probably emphasized that is was “quality construction” and “built to code” after pulling a buyer in under the false pretense of a larger home. How did that feel? How do you sleep at night?
ParticipantWebsites are often wrong. The prices listed for Wisteria Place are anticiapted pricing starting in the low 800’s while while Primose Point which has higher priced, nicer, larger homes on larger lots says they are anticipated to start in the upper 700’s. Clearly the reference to Wisteria Place pricing is erroneous.
ParticipantLast time I checked a 13% decline or even a 5 to 10% decline sounds like alot to me. Frankly, I still have a hard time beleiving a Wisteria Place home sold for 875K. The only explanation I can see is that it was a model home. A lot of the information on the Bressi Ranch sales flip flopped between Wisteria Place (the cheapest neighborhood) and Heather Court (the 3rd most expensive neighborhood after WP and Primrose Point)which share the same street names and are located adjacent to each. Many of the sales refereed to were in Heather Court where prices where considerably higher and homes much nicer. If you haven’t been there, Wisteria Place homes are essentially dettached townhomes with garages behind the homes accessed via shared alleys. The have no driveways and no backyards (really!) and are priced lower because of that. Heather Court homes are you more traditional house with backyards, driveways accessing your garage.
Frankly, i’m not trying to make it sound anyway…..just reporting the facts. We all have opinions as to what is going to happen (and I share many of yours) but they are opinions. Some will be right and some will be wrong. Forbes Magazine had a cover story in 2002 that really estate prices were going to crash and that no one should buy real estate. It was their opinion. Those that didnt listen experienced rapid appreciation and the opportunity to take advantage of 30 yr fixed rate refinancing in the low 5%’s. They will give back some or all of that appreciation but they will keep their 5% fixed rate mortgages if they were smart enough to get them….I did!
I do not promote myself as a financial expert forecaster, it’s just not part of my job. My job is to help people who want to purchase a home find the best one for tthem and to get them the best possible price and terms. Housing is a basic need and everyone needs it. If everyone decided to rent there would be people on the streets as there isnt enough rental property out there. Furthermore, most people would not be happy living in a property they dont an ownership interest in. I encourage people to buy what they truly need, what they truly can afford today and to finance in such a manner that they will not be faced with rising mortgage payments they might not be able to afford. If they say they a merely looking to buy to make money, I express my opinion that its unlikely to happen anytime soon.
ParticipantDo you think the reason you missed the market and got $780K has anything to do with the fact that your Help-U-Sell agent initially overpriced the property at $850K when the market was a little better? (pretty resourceful….huh)
Participantlendingbubbleco,
I’m as bearish as the next and have been since I saw what happened in Spring 2004. I just want to make sure the facts are not misrepresented. Your Insight as shown by the headline of this thread is a 25% decline in Bressi Ranch whhich is clearly hyperbole. If you already live here and are invested in the area the house you buy will likely fare about the same probably better (if you buy new) than what you currently have. If you living situation changes (need more or less room, different job location, promotion etc.) why not move? Now if you are coming to the area with new money to invest in a home, that’s a little different.FYI…models are very overdone and frequently have $100 to 200K in additional upgrades. I’d never buy one but know clients that have lots of money and don’t care. All they want is a designer perfect move-in ready house. Different strokes for……
ParticipantGreat Info Bugs,
To summarize:
Everythings Included from Lennar doesnt mean you cant spend more than these nicely appointed homes come with. Flooring which isnt included can easily vary by $50K or more.The highest sales were models which were very well appointed and are likely outliers pricewise as they are in most cases.
The real decline in these homes based upon builder concessions looks to be about $70,000 which is a roughly 10% discount. Additional financing concessions and free upgrades could push this up higher and its not out of the question for the discount to be closer to $100,000.
As a point of comparison, I have seen 5 to 10% declines in the value of many resale homes (particularly those sold at the peak of the frenzy Feb 2004 – May 2004) also so this seems to be on target with what is going on around here and perhaps slightly ahead of the curve.
Sorry but no 25% Off Fire Sales……..YET?
ParticipantIf you have time to wait, watch the market. I dont know whether this scenario will ever come to pass but here is how the samrtest folks made a killing last time around. If prices come down diginificantly, wait until they are languishing at a low level for at least 6 to 12 months. Wait until everyone including the media is saying real estate is horrible investment and why would anyone buy anything….that’s when the biggest winners bought.
Of course you have to keep living so dont wait too long if you can afford it. My father spent his whole life preparing for a well funded retirement and died 3 months after retiring at age 68 after barely being sick a day in his life. He never got to enjoy it, though Mom is set for life.
ParticipantDont know much about prices there but one thing you want to check into are the Mello Roos which tend to be very high there. Many communities have tax rates nearly double that in SD so you would be paying 300 to 400 extra per month in taxes.
ParticipantIf a house in Wisteria Place sold in the 800’s it surprises me. I’ll take your word for it. It must have been a premioum lot with huge upgrades. I have a client considering a home there right now and in the mid 600’s it looks like a bargain relative to most of what’s out there.
ParticipantNo problem powayseller and I appreciate the exchange of thoughts. I work in an office (yes I actually go into my office everyday) surrounded by people that have been in the business for over 20 years. I hear the stories and have a fairly good idea of what can come down the line.
I’m a very analytical guy. My way of working with sellers is to do alot of analysis and provide them accurate data as to what is going on and what the trends are. Since most of my clients are well educated they can follow the data I provide them. Ultimately the choice as to how much risk they are willing to take is up to them but providing them an accurate picture is what I do best.
Interestingly, commissions seem to be trending up not down. While Help-U-sell and the other similar iterations of it have some good brokers most are pretty bad from what I see. I refer to the local guys in my area as Help-u-not-sell. Their success rates and falling and many of their claims are misleading. They post commission savings based upon 6% commission rates when 5% has been the market standard for the last 2 to 3 years. When you use someone like them you are saving 1 to 1.5% but generally end up with a overly priced property that is poorly marketed. When i take a listing, I invest about $1,000 the first week of my own money and continue spending on things that I know can directly influence the sale of said property. If it doesnt sell I lose. If the pay as you go, high volume guy fails you lose particularly in a softening market. The old timers tell me the discounters come and go every boom market. Without volume they perish and volume is declining. Real estate is nowhere near as profitable as the general public beleives and a very small % of realtors earn a decent living (over $50,000 net). Profitable real estate brokerages are even rarer from what I have heard. The big brokerages make their profits off ancillary services not real estate commissions.
As for me and my livelihood, I’m a pretty crafty guy. I am always on the lookout for business opportunities and am currently working on two small business ideas (one RE related and one retail business). I keep my costs low, live beneath my means and look forward to watching my children grow into good citizens of the world!ParticipantBugs,
I’m right behind you. You sound like you are in the biz also. In what capacity?ParticipantThough I sold my first house in late 1999, I’m entering my 5th year full time in the biz. I have followed it closely much longer because real estate has always fascinated me.
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