[sdrealtor]

Thank you! You have a better way with words than myself and I agree with everything you say. Comments like “prices WILL drop (fill-in the blank)% are utter nonsense. No one knows what is going to happen. I for one am constantly amazed by the market and how long/how well it has held up. Like everyone else here I am a housing bear who just happens to have a front row seat. I will not let what I hope will happen get in the way of my analyzing what is happening and encourage those that are letting their hopes guide their opinions to open up their minds to competing theories.

[sdrealtor]

With stellar credit, high ficos and plenty of equity you should be able to get Prime minus 1% on a HELOC.

[sdrealtor]

Marketing cost s scale with the price because the higher the price the higher the clients expectations of what marketing should be. Anyone with a house above $1.5M wants to see their home in Dreams Homes magazine which costs a grand or more. They expect professional photographers at 500 to 1000. They expect color display ads in the UT.

As for liability, any agent who has been in the business for any length of time will end up in arbitration/mediation/litigation etc. Even good and honest get sued because of dishonest clients. The comission is built inot the market because the system is what has created a fairly efficient market. Take out the variable incentives and lower the compensation and prices will drop. Most of you would argue that is a good thing….that is except when you become the seller that wants top dollar.

Personally I would love to work for a set guaranteed rate where the client bears the burden for unreasonable expectations (i.e setting too high a price and not selling).

[sdrealtor]

What I heard was they thought the last two years were speculation (as Rich astutely has pointed out) but that there were reasonably good fundamentals in place until late 2003 (as I have thought intuitively). My impression was you could take away what ever you wanted. My friends are looking through fresh cleaned rose colored glasses while yours are a bit darker and foggier;). So I think it would be great to hear what someone with your beliefs interpreted their report to say rather than what the realtor driven media has spun out of it. This is not a loaded a question.

By a 180, I mean Anderson was predicting a melt down and they seemed to back away from that to a soft landing with flat prices until 2011. My question for you is whether this is what you heard or was it just media spin?

[sdrealtor]

Thanx, I’ll keep them in mind.

[sdrealtor]

Just wondering how you managed to move for $2,000. I’d love to share how with my clients.

[sdrealtor]

PS,
I as well as most others on this board are anxiously awaiting your report on the Anderson Forecast. I know you were very excited about going but you have been rather quiet on the topic. Can you share your secrets and let us in on what they had to say? They seemed to do a 180 turn from what they were saying only a month or two ago. Was this media spin or did they really predict something else?

[sdrealtor]

I would gladly work for $10K/house if I had some sense I guarantee that I would get paid. Heck, I’d work for half that if the client would cover all marketing costs upfront and assume all liability.

[sdrealtor]

Tend to agree with you. Bressi has put many of their standing inventory into the MLS and sell them at big discounts. The worst thing for a builder to have is an unsold and completed house. They will do alot to get them sold. I have heard of people negotiating 100K plus discounts at the Bay Collection + landscaping allowances+ lender bonuses etc on standing inventory. I dont know if you’ll find a pool size lot with an ocean view in the BAy Collection as standing inventory but if that is where you like there are deals to be had. Have at it!

[sdrealtor]

Actually my experience has been that right or wrong, people buy the house they want to live in and not necessarily the cheapest one. If the 599 is the one they like the best for some reason that it makes it unique to them then that is the one they will buy. A difference of $25,000 or less typically wont sway people’s choices. Renter’s dont put so much emphasis on the house because they dont expect to be there more than a year or two. Most buyers expect to remain in a house longer than they probably will actually stay there.

Everything you say makes logical sense but people buy homes emotionally and their decisions often dont make sense. I cant tell you how many times a buyer has told me what they NEED and what they WONT buy only to buy exactly what they say they didnt want.

Same thing with cars….you go in looking for the economical car and leave with Sports car touring edition.

[sdrealtor]

Same community
5XX Via De Caballo
4BR/2.5BA, 2172 sq ft, pictures show zero upgrades
closed on 4/26 for 585K with a 15K credit to buyer for closing costs.
Thats a net sale of 570K

They are all different and every situation sill be unique

[sdrealtor]

You two are too much. I pointed out that buying gas today rather than putting it off until tommorrow when prices are higher has saved me money. I debated your idea of buying only 20 dollars at a time as being ineffective and rather filling up often as being more effective when prices are going up rapidly. Pennywise, poundfoolish is name calling? You two are just silly. Uh oh…I called you silly.

[sdrealtor]

Rich is a skilled analyst with insight. You once again touted another realtor on this board by name w/o knowing anything about him. I’m just surprised you are so gullible to fall for someone just because they say what you want to believe.

[sdrealtor]

The differnce is you are talking in the hypothetical world full of assumptions and I am talking in the real world. I dont know where they are working just that they keep on turning up to look at my listings. I have listings in the 800K to 1M range that have been shown an average of more than 1 time/day. I speak with their agents all the time and thats what they are, young professional families moving into the area. $75K is not a high paying job most make at least double that. Some work for major companies, some work for mid size companies, some work for start ups, some work from home, hell some dont work at all and just surf all day. All I know is they just keep coming. I know many are leaving too but as the market disintegrates many who would have bought would prefer to rent. I have a list of 6 families desperately seeking a nice SFR to rent in a nice neighborhood with good schools. If I have that many, so do other productive agents. In my immediate neighborhood, there are 6 rentals. Three owned by investors that bought in the late 90’s with 30 year fixed mortgages that wont sell anytime soon. Two people that moved up and kept the house as an investment. The last moved out of the country and is holding onto the house so they can come back someday. All have owned for more than 6 years and based upon the size of their loans, their taxes and insurance and market rents all are cash flow positive about $500/month. They typically rent within 1 week when they come on the market and I could personally rent all 6 out today.

[sdrealtor]

Interesting because I have been doing the opposite and it has worked to my benefit. I keep my tank full because prices keep going up. I can buy gas cheaper today than tommorrow. When it starts going down I will have overpaid on my last fill up while saving on my last dozen or so fill-ups. Sounds like you are being pennywise and poundfoolish.

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