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sdrealtor
ParticipantYou could change the byline and put my name, my neighbors names or most of my friends names in there. There are more people like us out here…lots more. I suspect that many people here have come to SoCal to live the lifestyle a few years. But there are many of us committed to making this our home and improving the communities we live in. Without people like this, a place lacks community and permanency. I applaud you as I too am living my dream also. I have no desires for bigger/better homes and one of my children will be blessed by the legacy of raising their family in this home.
ParticipantNot many $1.5M homes selling. In genereal, those that are selling are being bought by wealthy people who can buy whenever and whatever they want.
ParticipantAlmost sold out. Very succesful development. Early speculators taking profits with a half dozen or so resales on the market.
ParticipantIt wasnt gathering steam it exploded. The homes I sold were listngs NOT buyer sales. I priced them, put them in the MLS and negotiated with what was presented to me. The truth is I represented very few buyers since mid 2004 because I didnt like what was going on and knew trouble when I saw it. The buyers I represented all bought about 50K below the comps or are still waiting to buy until after this Summer.
These are just a few areas, i’m sure I could many others around the county. If there was any appreciation after the end of 2004 it was minimal at best. Check the trend lines….
ParticipantThats part of the problem…there was no realtor present.
ParticipantDocteur,
I beleive there may be cultural differences that would make these difference in opinion impossible to resolve. Different cultures value different things, which makes how you or I feel about our homes vs how powayseller views hers neither wrong nor right…just different.ParticipantI’ll address this but the most important point is being overlooked. That sale in Escondido was not a fair market sale it was blatant exploitation!
Bugs…please step in and let them know what you would do with a comp like that.
ParticipantI went through the MLS and looked at sales that went into escrow in early to mid 2004 to find sales that would have been impossible to replicate after that. Alga Hills in Carlsbad, Mar Brisa in Carlsbad, Rancho Carillo in Carlsbad. Harbor Pointe in Carlsbad. La Costa Valley in Carlsbad. San Elijo Hills in San Marcos. Encinitas Ranch in Encinitas. These are just a few of many. Prices peaked and held steady until late Summer/early Fall 2005 and then started coming down. Sure there were some exceptions and prices may have gone up another 1 to 3% some places. But if you had a place to sell in Spring 2004 and had the nerve to put an obscene price on it…you could get just about anything!
ParticipantMost of them! There are always exceptions. For example beach properties have continued to do well.
ParticipantI just checked out that sale and it was about as egregious as they come. It was a FSBO entered into the MLS and the deal was consumated with no licensed real estate agent representing the buyer or seller. The seller took complete advantage of an unrepresented hispanic buyer who finaced 100% of the purchase. There was not and has not been a single comp within spitting distance of that sale.
As for the market peaking between Spring 2005 and Fall 2005 you are 100% correct if you say the Market Median prices peaked then and I wouldnt disagree. The problem is the statisitcs are flawed in many ways. I sold a half dozen homes in Spring 2004 which each had about 6 to 10 offers on them. NONE of those homes could ever have been sold for more than they did in Spring 2004. Furthermore, there are already a few homes in my neighborhood that sold in Spring 2004 and subsequently came back on the market selling for less in 2005 and 2006. It’s nothing you’ll find in summary statisitcs but only something someone with their feet on the ground would see.
ParticipantThe 990K in Summer 05 was a number pulled out of thin air with no analysis or support. The market peaked in most areas by the end of 2004 not in the Summer of 2005. It was an assumption that was completely invalid. It was chosen because it fit in with the “I want to beleive prices are down 10% across the baoard already” stance of the author not because of anything that was researched.
As for the price paid being the only one that matters that simply is not true. In most areas there is a fair market value as determined by prevailing previous sales. I have seen homes sell way more than they should because an out of area agent comes in and does not understand a specific local market. When it happens everyone in the neighborhood say “can you beleive that person paid $XXXX”! Invariably the next sale is back in line and the unfortunate owners are the comp everyone uses to refinance. It’s kind of like lightening striking once and as we know lightening never strikes twice…….
ParticipantYour assuming a peak of 990K is not a reasonable assumption. The price they paid in late 2004 was the peak and they may have over paid at the time. 5% reduction seems far more reasonable.
ParticipantFYI, Prices in Poway are only 5 to 10% cheaper than the coast for a comparable home in a top school district. No more…no less
ParticipantThe problem with the just getting started argument is that this is not a linear. The last major jump in prices occurred in January 2004 and there was a very significant inflection point. The price trend line looked a lot more reasonable prior to that. So as my barber says “we might just get away with a little off the top”. The truth is I dont know whats going to happen nor does anyone on this board or otherwise.
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