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sdrealtor
ParticipantDon’t do the crime if you can’t do the time…..Don’t do it!
Wasn’t that the Baretta theme song?
ParticipantLooks like a gimmick to me. There property says it cant be shown Its a short sale and the 1st trust deed is about $460K. No way they write off that much with no reason to. My guess is that they are tring to create a bidding wat starting with a price way below market.
Participant211 and counting. The bleeding slowed down this week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are down to 18,070.
In the submarket I track very closely inventory is falling and pending are rising. The inventory and pending numbers are very similar this year vs exactly 1 year ago. The market is pretty much where it was one year ago so there really hasnt been a major meltdown yet. The ratio of actives to pendings has gone from a high of 6 around Labor Day to 3.5 which is where it stood last Nov 28th. The price decline has happened in a pretty orderly fashion in my area with the fluff that was piled on in early 2004 rapidly evaporating. I expect the pace of declines to slow from here on out but don’t pretend to have all the answers. That and $4 will get you a Cafe Mocha @ Starbucks.
ParticipantI didnt ask you to put faith in me forecasting “by gut”. So far it hasnt failed me so I’ll stick with it until proven otherwise. The numbers you present are “your numbers”. I have no faith in them just as I have no faith in any reported statistics. I’ve seen too much that makes me question them. Interestingly, you constantly question the voracity of reported numbers that don’t support your viewpoint (i.e. inflation rates) while accepting those that do. I don’t accept the ones that support or contradict my viewpoint.
BTW, there are a lot of different kinds of adjustable mortgages. Some will adjust soon and some still have a long way to go. I know people with adjustable mortgages that could pay them off in cash if they want. I know this might be more the exception than the rule but I think the data on mortgages out there is crap.
ParticipantYou state these number as fact so easily. I think the big early declines we have seen were easy to erase. I said so back in April if you remember. So far I have been spot on. I trust my gut and instinct more than your numbers. I have no confidence in any of the data reported for anything based upon what I have personally seen and what I see reported. I think further declines wont come as easy as they have so far. Only time will tell who is correct.
Participantagreed
ParticipantYou are correct in assuming than Jan 2004 was a major inflection point and we are already below that point in most cases. My personal opinion is that you are on the right track. I believe the 500 price is very realistic but am not so sure about the 450. It all comes down to how long it takes to get to 500. If it takes 2 or 3 years to get there, you need to continue the trend line for 2 0r 3 years keeping you close to the 500.
The bottom line is NO ONE knows what will happen. Your novice observations are as likely as anyone’s more educated ones. The best time to buy is when it makes sense for you personally and financially. Not before.
ParticipantThink again PC! We are 15% below 2004 prices. The 2005 prices and the 2004 prices were pretty much the same.
This is where its gets fuzzy. 2003 prices for these homes were in the low 500’s with the last sale happening in Late Summer. Price jumped about $100K between Sept 2003 and Feb 2004 with very low volume. Jumps like this happened just about everywhere in SD County so very few people actually paid prices between a fairly big range (in this case between the low 500’s and low 600’s). If we get back to the low 500’s in this case we will be about 30% off the peak in nominal terms. Throw in 4 years of inflation and the real decline is a bit more. Waiting for 2000 nominal prices will leave you a renter for life IMHO. I’m not saying jump now but I believe these houses wont see the low 300’s (2000 prices in nominal terms). That would represent a real decline of over 60%.
ParticipantIn Spring 2005 these golf course view homes were selling between the mid 600’s and low 700’s. At today’s prices they have already dropped 15 to 20%. Anyone who thinks prices are falling slowly, need only look at numbers like this to see the descent has been rapid. I would expect a further decline but wonder how quick and how far it will fall. IMHO, there probably is another 10 to 15% drop ahead but you will have to wait at least 2 years more to get there.
When to buy is your decision but I would say you have definitely been rewarded for your patience and this portion of the decline was relatively easy to forsee. What happens next is not so easy to to foretell.
ParticipantIn a good market anything including FSBO will work. In a tough market like we are in right now, its very hard to sell even if you do everything right. Good luck with that FSBO and remember time is money. The sooner you sell no matter what it costs you the better.
ParticipantFYI, housing prices fell rapidly this year. The pace of declines is unlikely to continue IMHO.
ParticipantBoth are nice but overall Aviara is several big steps up.
Aviara has a Four Seasons Resort with phenomenal golf course as its center piece and overlooks a lagoon. Many homes have ocean and/or canyon views. It is 5 minutes from the freeway and the beach. Elementary and Jr. High schools are outstanding. It is next to Encinitas, one of SoCals’ truly unique and great beach towns.
Calavera has some nice tract homes and some nice canyon open space around it. Good schools. No golf course, No 5 star resort, No 5 minutes from the beach or freeway but it is 5 minutes from an area of Oceanside (Lake & Thunder) with a fair amount of gang activity. For a nice new tract home in Carlsbad it is a relative bargain.
Both areas go to Carlsbad High, though a school bond just passed to build another HS that will probably end up with most of the Aviara kids.
Participant1. Aviara Point-Very high end custom homes on small lots with spectacular views. A single street with gates at both ends surrounded by Aviara Golf Course. price $2M+
2. Bella Lago-very nice tract homes built by Brookfield in Gated Community built overlooking lagoon. Price mostly $1.4M+
ParticipantAN,
FYI, the Compass Point property is a short sale. Owner paid 335K in 2002 and MEWed their way up to a 585K loan balance. The 2nd lien is toast and the 1st is $493K. Unlikely they sold much below 450K as that is the lowest sale price in the last 6 months and it is for the much smaller unit. Also 5.5% or even 6% is a very unrealistic assumption right now. think more like 6.5%. -
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