[sdrealtor]

Beebo,
You are an idiot. Plain and simple. There are many explanations as to why trading up can be a reasonable strategy even today. Your 20% decline example is a ridiculous as your constant harping on the median.

The truth is, smart people and good agents transact to beat the market not match the market. Some properties will go down 10% and some will go down 30%. If you get rid of one that goes down 30% and move into one that goes down 10% you are ahead of the game. I have a client that sold a property in 2004 which has since gone down in value by 10% or more and is now living in one that increased in value by 20%. He’s very happy he listened to me. I have a couple clients that bought last year (2005) for family reasons who have seen comparable properties close recently for about 5% more than what they paid. The market isnt up where they bought, they just bought very well and beat the market.

As mentioned by others, money is not everything to everyone. Some people place personal living situations above the concern for losing money on the value of their home.

Still waitng for real examples from the field from you instead of the nonsense you post. He’s another one on my side. A small house just closed today on the west side of I-5 in Del Mar for $715,000 after selling for $750,000 in Summer 2004. It also underwent a major remodelling at a cost of at least 50K. Thats equivalent to an $85K loss without even considering transaction costs.

Not at 2003/2004 prices yet? Nothing you’ve said has proven otherwise to anyone.

[sdrealtor]

In the last couple years I’ve been on the listing side far more often than not. My clients that are buying understand the risks and I clearly state what I belive will happen. The client that I have who are buying fall into two categories. They are very high end clients looking at very special properties/locations for whom time and enjoyment are more valuable than money. The second category is clients that will move up when and if they sell their current home. I cant see many other situations where I’d work with a buyer this year.

[sdrealtor]

ARRGGGHHHH! Stop with the median is down only X% so far. Enough already. You know better. You know its a useless measure. If you want an ounce of credibility start posting real examples you are seeing in the field. As an appraiser you see refis in addition to purchases. That is something of real value that you can provide not the same nonsense we get from the industry talking heads. We have enough babbling fools out there. Step up to the plate and truly add something of value. Tell us about how the values are coming in relative to prices paid the two to three years ago.

[sdrealtor]

It was originally purchased with 20% down and currently has a tenant in it. There looks to be a $250K Heloc but there is no way of knowing what was drawn down. My guess is that its an investment gone bad and the owner wants to write off the loss this year against other investment income.

[sdrealtor]

SD R,
A quick tip. When you try to enter all the ZIP codes individually, Tempo cant handle it. Just enter the letters “ALSDC” in the zip box and click no shadow Zips. It will only give you SD County listings which are currently a total of 16,681 Combo (attached and detached)lisitngs.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

I think we can all agree that we are in for some challenging times as a nation. The complexities of analyzing and forecasting the economy are too numerous and dynamic to ever accurately project. I just like to take a top line simple look every once in a while to test what I hear.

[sdrealtor]

Concho,
You are a bit off the mark. A depression has to be on a national level not locally. My example addresses the issue on a macro level nationally. Please try ot stay on point.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

Prices have fallen to levels in many parts of the county where people had at least some level of belief in the fundamentals behind them and are starting to re-enter the market. Builders have cancelled numerous new projects, slowed down construction and cleared out alot of standing inventory (of course there are some exceptions). This Spring could hold together before we get another healthy price slashing between July 2007 and October 2007.

[sdrealtor]

Many are sold on the 2 conservative payment options of the Option ARM. I know people who were told it’s just like a 5/1ARM or a 30 year fixed payment. You can do whatever you like pay the fully amortized payment, the interest only payment etc.

My landscaper told me he refinanced into this great loan that reduced his payment in half. He had no idea what he was getting into until he realized it was a neg am payment. Sure he thought the lower payment was great but he had no clue what the loan really was. Now he’s stuck in it for another 18 months. He was in a 30 year fixed rate at about 6% before he got this great loan that cut his payment in half. He pulled out no equity. He was done in by an unscrupulous broker.

I have another client that got laid off by Qualcomm. He had an assembly/testing job and isnt the brightest bulb in the box. He could have easily pulled out a 25K HELOC for no cost and solved all his short term problems. Instead an unscrupulous broker refied him into an Option ARM knowing full well that he was looking for work out of the area. When he sold his house 3 months later he had a $15K prepayment penalty on a loan amount under $300K.

[sdrealtor]

NSR,
Just curious as to how these numbers were compiled. Were they compiled by asking “What percentage of your Gross Income goes toward Housing Costs/” or were they compilied by combining Income Numbers and Houshold Cost numbers?

SDR

[sdrealtor]

“Why would people who can afford conventional 30-year mortgages sign on to Option ARMs especially if the fees are higher with prepayment penalties?”

Because they were mislead or even worse deceived.

[sdrealtor]

997 up from 978 last week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 16,947 down from 17,404.

In the submarket I track very closely inventory is where it was last year and falling faster than last year (more people are giving up for the holidays quicker). Pendings are about 10% higher than last year. It constantly surprises me that things aren’t worse but they just aren’t yet.

New insight of the week. Last week I spent a day visitng the new home communities in Coastal North County. I expected them to be in really bad shape but it was the complete opposite. Most of them have figured out a way to thin out their inventory. The best deals seemed to be in October as most of the reps said you could get a better deal then than today. There aren’t alot of compelling new homes left on the market nor will there be this Spring around here. This could help keep the market together a bit. I’m starting to think the market will stay together better than I thought and am considering scaling back my predicted price decline from 10% to 5% for 2007.

[sdrealtor]

One of the major reasons that there were so many option arms is that they generate HUGE HUGE paydays for the mortgage broker. From my understanding the mortgage brokers make 2 to 3 times as much on an Option ARM than on other products. I know of people that could easily have afforded more conventional loans that were put in them. There was a lot of greed on both sides of the loans.

[sdrealtor]

It’s probably the number of closed sales. There are alot more than that pending right now. Short sales take a while to close and have really been picking up steam the last 3 months. Prior to that there weren’t many. It’s coming. I should have an update on the figures later today.

[sdrealtor]

NSR,
Just curious as to how these numbers were compiled. Were they compiled by asking “What percentage of your Gross Income goes toward Housing Costs/” or were they compilied by combining Income Numbers and Houshold Cost numbers?

SDR

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