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sdrealtor
Participantcyphire,
No apology necessary. The words I used were not things I say to my clients but my interpretation of what they say to me. For the most part they are buying based upon assets not income. Income doesnt earn you the right to live a lifestyle as jobs can vanish. Significant liquid assets conservatively invested earn you that right IMHO.Many realtors are just plain incompetent but I could probably say that for most fields. I have talked more people out of buying than I can count. The good Realtors tend to have been in the business for more than a couple years and are lving in homes they have owned for a decade or more. They understand RE cycles and didnt get caught up chasing Bigger and Better homes like the newbies that are now getting slaughtered.
BTW, sorry for the confusion re: sdr and SD R. I was first!
Participantcyphire,
No apology necessary. The words I used were not things I say to my clients but my interpretation of what they say to me. For the most part they are buying based upon assets not income. Income doesnt earn you the right to live a lifestyle as jobs can vanish. Significant liquid assets conservatively invested earn you that right IMHO.Many realtors are just plain incompetent but I could probably say that for most fields. I have talked more people out of buying than I can count. The good Realtors tend to have been in the business for more than a couple years and are lving in homes they have owned for a decade or more. They understand RE cycles and didnt get caught up chasing Bigger and Better homes like the newbies that are now getting slaughtered.
BTW, sorry for the confusion re: sdr and SD R. I was first!
ParticipantThose children with one exception arent in the state and the parents can send plane tix if they want to see them. The one child in the state came here to pursue his dream career after college but couldnt find his way into it. I introduced him to a couple friends in that field and he got a great job. He’s doing great working for a friend of mine.
ParticipantThose children with one exception arent in the state and the parents can send plane tix if they want to see them. The one child in the state came here to pursue his dream career after college but couldnt find his way into it. I introduced him to a couple friends in that field and he got a great job. He’s doing great working for a friend of mine.
ParticipantCyphire
I wouldnt know as none of them are “Californian’s”. They have been in their current homes an average of 20 years or so. The homes they are buying will last the rest of their lives and allow them to enjoy retirement, visits from adult children and eventually grandchildren. The homes are in the North County Coastal area between DM and Carlsbad. Two are walking distance to the beach another is about a mile away with spectacular ocean views on a bit of land. Not McMansions but custom spec homes with many personal choices built into the homes to fit their lifestyle.sdr
ParticipantCyphire
I wouldnt know as none of them are “Californian’s”. They have been in their current homes an average of 20 years or so. The homes they are buying will last the rest of their lives and allow them to enjoy retirement, visits from adult children and eventually grandchildren. The homes are in the North County Coastal area between DM and Carlsbad. Two are walking distance to the beach another is about a mile away with spectacular ocean views on a bit of land. Not McMansions but custom spec homes with many personal choices built into the homes to fit their lifestyle.sdr
ParticipantTo make it clear, I believe prices in the general market (not high end) will drop another 15 to 20% nominally over the next 3 years followed by flat prices for another 3 to 5 years. There will also be price erosion in Real terms due to inflation amounting to another 20 to 30% decline (3% annually over 6 to 10 years). I have seen a nominal decline about 10% from the peak in late 2004/early 2005 already.
With a 30% nominal decline and a 20 to 30% decline (over 10 years of falling then flat prices) due to inflation, Real Prices will be be at least 50% below the peak. This of course is just my opinion.
Does that sound bullish to you?
ParticipantTo make it clear, I believe prices in the general market (not high end) will drop another 15 to 20% nominally over the next 3 years followed by flat prices for another 3 to 5 years. There will also be price erosion in Real terms due to inflation amounting to another 20 to 30% decline (3% annually over 6 to 10 years). I have seen a nominal decline about 10% from the peak in late 2004/early 2005 already.
With a 30% nominal decline and a 20 to 30% decline (over 10 years of falling then flat prices) due to inflation, Real Prices will be be at least 50% below the peak. This of course is just my opinion.
Does that sound bullish to you?
Participantcyphire,
Their times frames arent 10 years they are the rest of their lives. None of these families are monocle wearers walking around with bags of cash. They are owners of relatively unexciting family owned businesses that built up wealth from nothing. For the most part they have never lived extravagently in their lives. They are in their mid to late 50’s and heading toward a retirement they have looked forward to for many years. No one is going to take this away from them and nothing can.These are conservative people who in one example want nothing more than to spend every day of the rest of there lives walking down a certain beach they have visited for years. In this example, they had a 4 block radius where sales are rare. A short term loss of several 100K in their homes value wont change a thing for them.
These are far from the only kind of clients I have. I work across all price ranges. I have found it nearly impossible to work with buyers in more reasonable price ranges as I believe prices are coming down, just not as fast or as low as some around believe.
Participantcyphire,
Their times frames arent 10 years they are the rest of their lives. None of these families are monocle wearers walking around with bags of cash. They are owners of relatively unexciting family owned businesses that built up wealth from nothing. For the most part they have never lived extravagently in their lives. They are in their mid to late 50’s and heading toward a retirement they have looked forward to for many years. No one is going to take this away from them and nothing can.These are conservative people who in one example want nothing more than to spend every day of the rest of there lives walking down a certain beach they have visited for years. In this example, they had a 4 block radius where sales are rare. A short term loss of several 100K in their homes value wont change a thing for them.
These are far from the only kind of clients I have. I work across all price ranges. I have found it nearly impossible to work with buyers in more reasonable price ranges as I believe prices are coming down, just not as fast or as low as some around believe.
Participantcyphire
All in all a very good economic analysis. However, individuals buy and sell RE for many reasons not just economic ones. The data is all out there and has been for quite some time. I try my best to present it to clients. Most roll their eyes and make decisions based upon what they want and can afford without considering how much they will make on their home. They are more concerned with living the life they have earned and choose to live. While you are sitting on the sidelines, those that can afford it and want to buy a home will continue to do so. Nothing you can say or do will make it otherwise. the choices they make effect the market and the price you will ultimately have to pay or not pay for that matter.I know there are plenty of dreamers out there living well beyond their means but I choose not to work with them. I counsel them to place their feet firmly on the ground and not make a decision which could ruin their life. Some listen…some dont and find someone else willing to do the dirty work. It’s just not my bag.
Participantcyphire
All in all a very good economic analysis. However, individuals buy and sell RE for many reasons not just economic ones. The data is all out there and has been for quite some time. I try my best to present it to clients. Most roll their eyes and make decisions based upon what they want and can afford without considering how much they will make on their home. They are more concerned with living the life they have earned and choose to live. While you are sitting on the sidelines, those that can afford it and want to buy a home will continue to do so. Nothing you can say or do will make it otherwise. the choices they make effect the market and the price you will ultimately have to pay or not pay for that matter.I know there are plenty of dreamers out there living well beyond their means but I choose not to work with them. I counsel them to place their feet firmly on the ground and not make a decision which could ruin their life. Some listen…some dont and find someone else willing to do the dirty work. It’s just not my bag.
ParticipantI have 3 buyer clients purchasing custom homes between 1.7M and 2.5M that we have spent anywhere from 3 to 5 years each looking for. Finding exactly the type of properties they wanted was extremely challenging and the changing market provided the opportunity to get them. These properties were never on the open market and will likely stay in these familes for generations. Each could pay cash if they wanted. In fact they could buy a handful of like homes if they wanted. I am very confident when I say “A year from now, my clients will be happy with their purchases”
ParticipantI have 3 buyer clients purchasing custom homes between 1.7M and 2.5M that we have spent anywhere from 3 to 5 years each looking for. Finding exactly the type of properties they wanted was extremely challenging and the changing market provided the opportunity to get them. These properties were never on the open market and will likely stay in these familes for generations. Each could pay cash if they wanted. In fact they could buy a handful of like homes if they wanted. I am very confident when I say “A year from now, my clients will be happy with their purchases”
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