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October 4, 2007 at 2:40 PM in reply to: Biggest percentage loss in San Diego, purchased price vs. list or sold price #86992
sdrealtor
ParticipantDefinitely agree on the pendings falling below the seasonal effect. Regarding prices: Maybe small chunks but not big ones. All along I’ve expected about 5 to 10% depreciation with most of the fall coming in Fall. I still feel the same way. People on both sides of the equation are too impatient and want to see instant gratification. The ship is just too darn big to move that fast.
Additionally, at 5 to 10% off Spring 2007 prices I believe that Spring 2008 sales would be pretty good in my neck of the woods.
October 4, 2007 at 1:45 PM in reply to: Biggest percentage loss in San Diego, purchased price vs. list or sold price #86980ParticipantCan I play too?
How about this yummy one in La Costa? Built in 2005, this 3BR/2.5Ba townhome with all the bells and whistles resold in 2006 for $585,000. It’s now listed as an REO with an asking price of $399,900!
That’s 32% off at the current asking price.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071054304-3169_Via_Iris_Carlsbad_CA_92009
ParticipantCatch up time. Here’s another week.
9/27 to 10/3
new listings – 18
back on market – 3Total growth in inventory – 21
pendings – 8
expired – 9
withdrawn – 6
cancelled – 4Total decrease in inventory – 27
Net change in inventory – minus 6
The higher number of listings and expireds is due the end of the month falling during the week. Inventory continues to stay relatively flat in the face of plummeting sales volume.
I have the numbers for the short sale monitor and will try to get them up when I get home. I’m starting to see the beginnings of decent sized declines in my submarket. I think what has surprised me the most is the decline in volume. Prices have been so resistant to an orderly decline and this has caused the volume. I really shouldnt have been surprised but the truth is, I’ve been far more focussed on my other business interests outside of RE. Another surprise is the agents I’m hearing who are leaving the business or looking for other careers. Several of these are top producers whose faces adorn full page ads in the UT and your local supermarket shopping carts. My guess is their bottom lines were far different than their top line revenues which were very substantial.
ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather:
9/20 to 9/26
new listings – 9
back on market – 2Total growth in inventory – 11
pendings – 4
expired – 4
withdrawn – 4
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 14
Net change in inventory – minus 3
ParticipantWhew 11 out of 12. At least I passed.
ParticipantCORRECTION: The lender does not require termite clearance unless it is required by the contract as written by the agents. If the agents dont mention termite clearance it is not necessary. The only reason it is done is because it was added to the CAR Residential Purchase Agreement. Surprised you guys didnt know that.
September 27, 2007 at 9:15 AM in reply to: VOTE: state of the bubble collapse, Worse, OR Better than your expectation? #86092ParticipantPrices have fallen as I expected but the credit situation defintely happened faster than I expected. We are in for a cold Fall/Winter over the next 3 months but I still believe we will have a relatively good Spring. I agree with FSD that we will be about halfway through the downturn by years end.
September 26, 2007 at 11:10 AM in reply to: Fairbanks Ranch vs. Santaluz vs. Cielo vs. rest of Rancho Santa Fe #85977ParticipantI have to echo the Fairbanks North side sentiment. Friends of ours own the largest property there and I have spent alot of time there. It is beautiful and exclusive but still feels like a family neighborhood. For shopping you can shoot out the back through Santaluz to all the new shopping off 56 with little traffic. You also have also have a couple small shopping centers nearby and in the Village of RSF. Getting into CV shouldnt be impossible either. In your price range you should be able to find something nce but you may need to do some updating.
ParticipantDoes anybody sleep around here?
September 25, 2007 at 11:07 PM in reply to: What does it take to sell a place in this market? #85929ParticipantSD R
A little common sense here that you seem to be missing. When you interview for a listing I doubt you are competing against HelpUSell, Assist to Sell, RedFin, Ipayone etc. People interview you because they are looking to save on commissions. I’ll bet you generally go up against the larger brokerages when you are in competition because that is who the neighborhood experts tend to be with. You get interviewed because you are cheaper and they also interview agents with the major brokerages because they “perceive” them to be better but more expensive. So any time you lose a listing to an agent who “bought the listing” it will generally be an agent with one of the big guys. That is your experience, hence you believe that to be the case. I can honestly say that after spending years analyzing properties for sale in my area that there is absolutely no rhyme nor reason to who takes the overpriced listings. Sometimes it’s the discount guy and sometimes its the major brokerage guy.ParticipantLike I said we all take overpriced listings from time to time for one reason or another. Your previous comment about not taking them and claiming the big brokerages do more often was both false and misleading.
ParticipantNot to call you on that but dont you have an overpriced listing in Ramona for more than 1 year? How about the one in san carlos you held onto for about 1 year?
The truth is no one wants horribly overpriced listings. The reality is for a variety of reasons we all take them from time to time.
ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather:
9/13 to 9/19
new listings – 15
back on market – 2Total growth in inventory – 17
pendings – 9
expired – 5
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 1Total decrease in inventory – 18
Net change in inventory – minus 1
Months Inventory is a bit tricky because of seasonality. Acknowledging the flaws he’s a first stab at. I’ll divide current inventory by the average monthly closed sales for the past 12 months. Its 4.17 by this measure. If you divide by last months sales it’s 4.28.
ParticipantUpdate time!
Short sales 4,653 up from 4,518 last week. Still no end in sight here.
Countywide we are at 19,777 up from 19,629 last week. Inventory has been relatively flat bouncing up and down in a narrow range for several weeks.
I ran some stats on several RE Offices in my area and the numbers are very weak. Most offices have very few listings in escrow. I expect to see consolidation of offices commencing soon among the big guys and doors shutting among the smaller players.
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