[sdrealtor]

Not all of them ☺️

The failure rate has always been well above 80% within the first few years.

but I think many experience agents will also. I’ve been talking about this for a while. The volume of sales dried up a few years ago. A lot of agents are just barely hanging on hoping it will come back, but it’s not going to anytime soon. The NAR Settlement will be the nail in the coffin for many. I am bombarded with constant information of how to deal with it, but it is constantly changing, It barely makes sense and it really doesn’t address what is going on. There is a ton of denial going on out there. I have some agent Friends, I’ve been trying to smack into reality and they just can’t see that everything is about to Change. The way agents interact with each other, and the cooperation that has existed for decades is about to disappear. It will be a race to the bottom, and I can’t say who the winners will be. Certainly not the agents and I don’t think the consumer will be either. An entire industry, and And business model has been ruled illegal with no replacement. It’s going to be interesting to watch and I’m happy to have spent 25 years, putting myself in position not to be dependent upon any of this

[sdrealtor]

San Diego data

https://www.redfin.com/city/16904/CA/San-Diego/housing-market

[sdrealtor]

I didn’t say 10%. I said MORE than 10%. Using an arbitrary 5 year period is cherry picking. Using the most current data? Not so much. Here you go. A link to actual data, something you rarely if ever seem to provide. It dropped from 556k to 500k in one month just over 10%

https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market

The graph clearly shows a market that peaked two years ago and is trending down. SD is still trending up

 

[sdrealtor]

By the way, nice job cherry picking stats for an arbitrary five year window. Yes, our real estate soared in prices those five years. Many of the losers left. Yes, work from home became a thing after the pandemic and some folks move back home to cheaper housing. Too bad they’re all being called back to work and are going to have to come back or find a new job. The future is so bright here I wear Sunglasses at night

[sdrealtor]

Nice stats. Meanwhile Arizona, Texas, Florida, Idaho and yes Utah too home price’s are sliding. Quickly

 

median home price in St. George dropped more than 10% from April to May. Yikes!!!

 

[sdrealtor]

What does 113 degrees even feel like? Does it hurt?

[sdrealtor]

Roughly the fourth anniversary of the original sell everything now post and it continues to look worse and worse. It was said time will tell and time has not told, it has slammed the door.

My combined brokerage accounts including CD’s, muni, etf’s equities etc finished out 2023 up 47%. Year to date in 2024 Im up 32%. I hope davelj is comfortable in his Mexican foxhole while the rest of us have enjoyed one of the greatest bull runs of our lifetimes.

 

 

[sdrealtor]

This is an easy one. The best time to sell is March, April and May. That is when the strongest and most active buyers and competition is out there. Sellers usually think it is June but the market is already greatly slow down by then. One of my friends has an incredible listing that would’ve sold with multiple offers. Had they listed it a month Earlier. Now it is languishing on the market because they waited until June when people are already turning their attention to vacations. Things get a little bit better in September but if I could wait, I would wait until March or April.

[sdrealtor]

Im still here and I still run my numbers each week but have been too busy to post them. I actually just ran them and was texting back and forth with AN about them.

The two areas I have been following for years are starting to diverge a bit. Mira Mesa has been remarkably strong. Inventory climbed just a bit but is now declining again. Prices are rising at a decent clip this year. Flippers are doing well there and market seems very strong up to 1.2 with some nice properties selling above that. 3 Roots resales are slowly coming on the market. I beleive MM is in a great spot and has room to grow as it continues gentrifying.

Up along the NCC inventory is building especially in Encinitas. I dont think I have ever seen more prime older properties on the market. Prices are very high as it has become a bit of a glamour town. There are more homes for sale in 92024 than 92009/92011 combined by a good margin. There are a bunch of older homes on the market that were owned for decades. I think we are seeing a bit of boomer liquidation combined with Prop19 eliminating the ability to pass a prime free and clear beach property down to heirs with the old tax basis. The two Carlsbad zips have a bit more inventory also but nothing like Encinitas.

 

 

 

[sdrealtor]

You will get reassessed on the value it adds. The original portion of the property will continue to be assessed how it was

[sdrealtor]

I cant beleive people out there dont do this? Its not that much and is one of the best final gifts you can leave to your heirs. Having been through it all with my mom’s passing 5 years ago it made all the difference in the world.

 

[sdrealtor]

This is all about greed and entitlement. This guy inherited a boatload of real estate. If he’s not happy with the taxes he can sell with a stepped up basis and reinvest somewhere else with better cap rates. Prop 13 was a great thing and I support most of it. With our prices going crazy I like the idea that long time owners should not get priced out. But commercial property owners and investment properties for heirs? Not so much with this high class problem. My kids are gonna inherit millions in real estate. If they elect to live in it and Prop 19 increases their taxes, they will be in paid off homes with monthly taxes that are still less than the cost of a 1BR rental in the area. If they cant afford that between what they make and what I leave behind they should go. If they rent the properties out, let them pay market rate taxes. They will still be massively cash flow positive as they will be paid off. Im not gonna cry for my kids making less massive profits and Im not gonna cry for someone else’s kids either. Or they can sell em but either way it will be a massive generational wealth windfall. Im good and they will be also

 

I believe this passing on of low taxes endlessly was a major cause of the lack of affordability here and it needs to improve. If this guy wants to help his struggling rentals Im sure he’d be just fine with one less 5* vacation

[sdrealtor]

105 with Excessive heat warning in effect. Its only going to get worse. Welcome to several months of indoor living

[sdrealtor]

You need a lawyer. You need to file a lien on the home

[sdrealtor]

Josh

the best part of this story is yet to come. Hang tight. It’s coming

[Author]

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