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SDEngineer
ParticipantWell, biofuel does have the one advantage that it’s not releasing “trapped” carbon – growing the plants for the fuel fixes the same amount of carbon from the atmosphere that it releases once burned – to that extent, it’s largely zero-sum, as opposed to burning oil, which was nicely sequestered in long term deposits. It’s really not a good long term solution though because as you noted, every hectare used to grow fuel crops is one fewer hectare that can be used to grow food crops, thus it results in inflation of food costs.
The future will probably go more towards a hydrogen economy with the energy to crack that hydrogen provided by solar, nuclear, wind, and geothermal sources – but thats still quite a ways off.
ParticipantWell, biofuel does have the one advantage that it’s not releasing “trapped” carbon – growing the plants for the fuel fixes the same amount of carbon from the atmosphere that it releases once burned – to that extent, it’s largely zero-sum, as opposed to burning oil, which was nicely sequestered in long term deposits. It’s really not a good long term solution though because as you noted, every hectare used to grow fuel crops is one fewer hectare that can be used to grow food crops, thus it results in inflation of food costs.
The future will probably go more towards a hydrogen economy with the energy to crack that hydrogen provided by solar, nuclear, wind, and geothermal sources – but thats still quite a ways off.
ParticipantWell, biofuel does have the one advantage that it’s not releasing “trapped” carbon – growing the plants for the fuel fixes the same amount of carbon from the atmosphere that it releases once burned – to that extent, it’s largely zero-sum, as opposed to burning oil, which was nicely sequestered in long term deposits. It’s really not a good long term solution though because as you noted, every hectare used to grow fuel crops is one fewer hectare that can be used to grow food crops, thus it results in inflation of food costs.
The future will probably go more towards a hydrogen economy with the energy to crack that hydrogen provided by solar, nuclear, wind, and geothermal sources – but thats still quite a ways off.
ParticipantWell, biofuel does have the one advantage that it’s not releasing “trapped” carbon – growing the plants for the fuel fixes the same amount of carbon from the atmosphere that it releases once burned – to that extent, it’s largely zero-sum, as opposed to burning oil, which was nicely sequestered in long term deposits. It’s really not a good long term solution though because as you noted, every hectare used to grow fuel crops is one fewer hectare that can be used to grow food crops, thus it results in inflation of food costs.
The future will probably go more towards a hydrogen economy with the energy to crack that hydrogen provided by solar, nuclear, wind, and geothermal sources – but thats still quite a ways off.
ParticipantWell, biofuel does have the one advantage that it’s not releasing “trapped” carbon – growing the plants for the fuel fixes the same amount of carbon from the atmosphere that it releases once burned – to that extent, it’s largely zero-sum, as opposed to burning oil, which was nicely sequestered in long term deposits. It’s really not a good long term solution though because as you noted, every hectare used to grow fuel crops is one fewer hectare that can be used to grow food crops, thus it results in inflation of food costs.
The future will probably go more towards a hydrogen economy with the energy to crack that hydrogen provided by solar, nuclear, wind, and geothermal sources – but thats still quite a ways off.
ParticipantIt’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.
Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).
While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.
ParticipantIt’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.
Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).
While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.
ParticipantIt’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.
Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).
While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.
ParticipantIt’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.
Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).
While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.
ParticipantIt’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.
Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).
While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.
ParticipantNumbers are a little off – I was clearing 4200/mo at a single filing status several years back when my salary was about 83.5K/yr.
Point taken though, and why I’ve stayed out of the housing market for so long. The fundamentals are still way out of whack, though they are getting significantly better. I guesstimated at the peak in ’05 that housing would have to fall about 40% for it to get back in line with San Diego fundamentals (of about a 4.5x median household income to price ratio), and we’ve seen about 25% of that drop. Still, the remaining 15% off peak is about another 80K or so drop from current median selling prices.
Hopefully after the spring “non-bounce” we’ll see more sellers getting realistic (and those that aren’t getting pummelled by the REO’s auction prices), and see more major depreciation this autumn/winter. I do expect the trend to hit the downside and go below the fundamentals, but I’ll be willing to buy once the market has returned to fundamentals (the wife wants a home, and we’re both sick of being renters, no matter how much financial sense it makes).
Of course, some markets are falling later than others – we’re looking at probably buying in some North County markets (W. Escondido near Del Dios, San Marcos, etc) which have seen a lot of air bled out already (proximity to my job is good from the N. County). Places like 4S and CMR, though places we’d like to live, are taking longer to adjust and we’re simply not likely to wait the extra 2-3 years for the depreciation to hammer those areas.
ParticipantNumbers are a little off – I was clearing 4200/mo at a single filing status several years back when my salary was about 83.5K/yr.
Point taken though, and why I’ve stayed out of the housing market for so long. The fundamentals are still way out of whack, though they are getting significantly better. I guesstimated at the peak in ’05 that housing would have to fall about 40% for it to get back in line with San Diego fundamentals (of about a 4.5x median household income to price ratio), and we’ve seen about 25% of that drop. Still, the remaining 15% off peak is about another 80K or so drop from current median selling prices.
Hopefully after the spring “non-bounce” we’ll see more sellers getting realistic (and those that aren’t getting pummelled by the REO’s auction prices), and see more major depreciation this autumn/winter. I do expect the trend to hit the downside and go below the fundamentals, but I’ll be willing to buy once the market has returned to fundamentals (the wife wants a home, and we’re both sick of being renters, no matter how much financial sense it makes).
Of course, some markets are falling later than others – we’re looking at probably buying in some North County markets (W. Escondido near Del Dios, San Marcos, etc) which have seen a lot of air bled out already (proximity to my job is good from the N. County). Places like 4S and CMR, though places we’d like to live, are taking longer to adjust and we’re simply not likely to wait the extra 2-3 years for the depreciation to hammer those areas.
ParticipantNumbers are a little off – I was clearing 4200/mo at a single filing status several years back when my salary was about 83.5K/yr.
Point taken though, and why I’ve stayed out of the housing market for so long. The fundamentals are still way out of whack, though they are getting significantly better. I guesstimated at the peak in ’05 that housing would have to fall about 40% for it to get back in line with San Diego fundamentals (of about a 4.5x median household income to price ratio), and we’ve seen about 25% of that drop. Still, the remaining 15% off peak is about another 80K or so drop from current median selling prices.
Hopefully after the spring “non-bounce” we’ll see more sellers getting realistic (and those that aren’t getting pummelled by the REO’s auction prices), and see more major depreciation this autumn/winter. I do expect the trend to hit the downside and go below the fundamentals, but I’ll be willing to buy once the market has returned to fundamentals (the wife wants a home, and we’re both sick of being renters, no matter how much financial sense it makes).
Of course, some markets are falling later than others – we’re looking at probably buying in some North County markets (W. Escondido near Del Dios, San Marcos, etc) which have seen a lot of air bled out already (proximity to my job is good from the N. County). Places like 4S and CMR, though places we’d like to live, are taking longer to adjust and we’re simply not likely to wait the extra 2-3 years for the depreciation to hammer those areas.
ParticipantNumbers are a little off – I was clearing 4200/mo at a single filing status several years back when my salary was about 83.5K/yr.
Point taken though, and why I’ve stayed out of the housing market for so long. The fundamentals are still way out of whack, though they are getting significantly better. I guesstimated at the peak in ’05 that housing would have to fall about 40% for it to get back in line with San Diego fundamentals (of about a 4.5x median household income to price ratio), and we’ve seen about 25% of that drop. Still, the remaining 15% off peak is about another 80K or so drop from current median selling prices.
Hopefully after the spring “non-bounce” we’ll see more sellers getting realistic (and those that aren’t getting pummelled by the REO’s auction prices), and see more major depreciation this autumn/winter. I do expect the trend to hit the downside and go below the fundamentals, but I’ll be willing to buy once the market has returned to fundamentals (the wife wants a home, and we’re both sick of being renters, no matter how much financial sense it makes).
Of course, some markets are falling later than others – we’re looking at probably buying in some North County markets (W. Escondido near Del Dios, San Marcos, etc) which have seen a lot of air bled out already (proximity to my job is good from the N. County). Places like 4S and CMR, though places we’d like to live, are taking longer to adjust and we’re simply not likely to wait the extra 2-3 years for the depreciation to hammer those areas.
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