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sdduuuude
Participant.
Participant[quote=Coronita]https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/13/1927193/-UCSF-COVID-19-Panel-Notes
“We are past containment”.
“40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. ”
“How long does the virus last?
On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.”You guys can argue all you want about government. I have a feeling none of this will be relevant in a few months. Good luck everyone.[/quote]
This is an awesome link. Very helpful.
Glad I posted here. The Piggs are generally toughtful.
This is what I see:
Short term lockdown to keep the demand for care below the capacity. Schools will open April 15 and run like a cruise ship with disinfectants in every room.
All but the most disciplined of germophobes are going to get it but death rate will prove be much lower than 1% in the short term since only the worst cases are tested.
Death rate will come down as people develop immunization, the medical industry develops treatments and/or vaccines.
Fade away in Summer and come back in the fall.
It’s going to look just like the flu in a year or two.
Restaurant / Bar industry going to suffer.
Cruises, for sure. Air travel, too.
Road trips may be popular this Summer.If this is recession-inducing, this definitely poses a greater risk to Trump than the impeachment ever did. People vote their pocketbooks, no matter who is responsible for the economic situation.
Participant[quote=ltsddd]corona: 70-100 million sick, 700K – 1 million deaths[/quote]
Awesome – over 325 million people get to live !
ParticipantAnswerwed before I read. deleted.
Participant[quote=zk]
So you think that anything that is failing should be completely abandoned? [/quote]In the case of big government, yes.
Participant[quote=zk]
[quote=sdduuuude]Lastly, I wonder if the overall effect of just letting the thing run its course would, in the end, be less disruptive than trying to stop it and having it not really work and everyone gets it anyway.
[/quote][/quote]
I need a subscription to see the whole article but I did see the chart. That makes sense.
Participant[quote=ltsddd]
[quote=sdduuuude]
The measured death rate is 3% or so. CDC or WHO estimated the actual rate under 1%. Could be much, much lower, in reality.I put those together and it sounds like just another flu to me.
[/quote]1% is widely cited as the death rate for the corona virus vs .1% for the flu. The contagiousness of the coronavirus is 2-3 vs 1.3 for the flu. Taking those together we’re looking at, using 2018’s # for flu cases:
flu:45 million sick, 61K deaths
corona: 70-100 million sick, 700K – 1 million deaths
Those are staggering numbers.[/quote]
My point was that the 1% death rate is very, very overblown because they are only testing people who are severely afflicted.
See this excerpt from an email I received from Sharp:
[quote=Sharp]To determine who should be tested, Sharp Rees-Stealy uses the guidelines and criteria set forth by both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency.
The criteria are:
1. Hospitalized patients who have signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19 in order to inform decisions related to infection control.2. Other symptomatic individuals such as: older adults and individuals with chronic medical conditions and/or an immunocompromised state that may put them at higher risk for poor outcomes (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, receiving immunosuppressive medications, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease).
3. Any persons, including health care personnel, who within 14 days of symptom onset had close contact with a suspect or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patient, or who have a history of travel from affected geographic areas within 14 days of their symptom onset.[/quote]
Participant[quote=zk]
If the government wasn’t failing to keep up with the situation, it might be reasonable to keep politics out of it. But government failure is a big part of the problem right now.
[/quote]It mystifies me how people can simultaneously say the government is failing to deal with something, then turn right back to the government to fix the problem.
ParticipantHave you heard of the Quarantini ?
It is just like a regular martini but you drink it alone in your house.
I guess for me, it is just a regular martini, then.
ParticipantPopped in to see what the Piggs were saying about the virus.
Glad to see Hobie is offering up the “closing schools seems like overkill” opinion. I tend to lean that way as well. I feel like the media has learned all too well that their livelihood ebbs and flows with panic and I feel they do their very best to feed it at every chance they get – most obviously with Trump, and now with the COVID-19.
Also glad to see that there is some reasonable discussion going on here. Hoping we can keep the politics out of it. I am not sure how anyone can say that the government is late in dealing with this since 60 people have died in two weeks while 100 die every day in automobile accidents. Not 1 person in San Diego has died and all the schools are closed.
With that said, some of the numbers appear significant. The growth in the US is pretty clearly exponential so nipping that early makes sense.
I wonder about the actual death rate vs. the measured death rate. I know a friend who took his daughter to ER last night because she showed 3 symptoms of the virus: very tired, fever, soreness in her chest when breathing. No cough. The hospital basically told her she had the flu, but did not test for the flu or for COVID-19. They were basically told that if your fever is really high and you are having real difficulty breathing and really worried about not getting enough air, then they would pay attention and maybe test you. Or if you recently traveled to infected areas. They also said they have been very busy with flu patients. I’m not sure how they know it isn’t a mild case of COVID-19.
I also read an article today that said there are 1200 COVID-19 test kits for all of San Diego.
Put that number together with the story from the ER and it sounds like the only people they test are the ones that are dying, which makes the measured death rate among “confirmed” cases massive. Also, the number of cases may be astronomically higher than those reported since they only test people who are very sick or coming from infected areas. I mean – how could San Diego possibly report more than 1200 cases if that is all the test kits they have.
The measured death rate is 3% or so. CDC or WHO estimated the actual rate under 1%. Could be much, much lower, in reality.
I put those together and it sounds like just another flu to me.
Lastly, I wonder if the overall effect of just letting the thing run its course would, in the end, be less disruptive than trying to stop it and having it not really work and everyone gets it anyway.
The article below suggested that 160,000 ventilators would not be enough. Well, if 1% die and double that amount need ventilators, then we could support over 8,000,000 simultaneous cases. Seems like not a problem, even if unchecked.
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I also wanted to say that it is really annoying when you all change names. It degrades the site alot, makes it impossible to follow and I just skip all the posts because I don’t know who the hell is saying what. And you are just bitching at each other mindlessly anyway so I don’t feel like I am missing much by skipping through it.
Participant[quote=outtamojo]Poor High School senior athletes. They worked so hard training only to have things cancelled- for many they will not get to play again.[/quote]
This is very sad for those kids. I hope that there will be some season to play in late April.
Participant[quote=spdrun]^^^
When I went to the supermarket, all of the “real food” was there, but the potato chip and salsa aisle was denuded. You’d think people were preparing for the Superbowl, not Armageddon and pestilence.[/quote]
Cutting off flights from China and Italy to the US seems to make sense. Closing colleges and working from home seems overkill.
Participant[quote=rent4now]Rich gave me the cajones and data to sell my house in 2005 8 short months after I purchased it.[/quote]
Wow, Rich went out and got you some cajones !
Never bought me a damn thing.
JeezParticipantMy dad used to say that cows are incredible machines that turn grass into steak. Would be a very difficult machine to make so thank goodness we have cows. Though I hear they are trying to grow edible meat tissue in a lab now.
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