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Perry pretty much nailed it, so I don’t have much to add, but I am curious. You say you’ve been patient, but now you sound like you’re done with that and ready to buy. Why?

I mean, sure, prices are better now than when you first started following things, but they’ve got more to give. You say you’re ready to commit to a place for 5 years or more, but do you really mean that? You better, because there’s an outstanding chance that you won’t be able to sell it for what you paid for it for a number of years to come. You think you feel trapped in a condo/apartment…

Even worse, consider the possibility that you’ll see the $100K you worked so hard to earn get slowly eaten away if prices continue their downward slide (and there’s really nothing to indicate that they won’t).

If it’s a nicer house you want, do like Perry says, check out what’s out there, maybe pay a little bit more in rent, and let that $100K work for you for a while.

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I happened to notice on foreclosure.com that Hendrix Montecastro has a NOD for a condo out 4S Ranch way. Looks to me like this scam might not just be limited to the Murrieta and Temecula areas…

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Maybe I have the wrong friends in San Francisco, but I didn’t see how we were supposed to get by without a car. I’ll admit there are a ton more cool urban neighborhoods there and we could walk for coffee (something I’m amazingly able to do here), but for them to get to jobs and school, they still had to get in cars or hop on motorcycles or whatever.

I’ll agree that mass transit seems much more effective there than in San Diego, but I’m still not sure it’s everything it’s cracked up to me. I haven’t exactly heard SF’ans sing the praises of their busses either.

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Still, it would have to be a pretty amazing/high end remodel or an uninformed buyer because you can get brand new homes of similar square footage for $100K less in that neck of the woods. To be fair, I should factor in upgrades and MR, but still, it’s a 2000 square foot house built in the ’60s.

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Déjà vu all over again? (just in the other direction this time)

Sorry, jg, but I guess it still doesn’t help you with your wager…

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Juice– I don’t think I’ve seen anywhere in this thread where you state that you actually love the study or practice of law. I think that gives you your answer.

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Approved landscape design. Is that a new term for “dirt yard”?

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Being involved with foreclosures doesn’t make one vulturous or scummy, but these guys certainly are both. They’ll probably still happily sell you a toxic loan with hopes that they can come in a few years down the road to take advantage of you when you go into foreclosure.

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Home Center Chief Executive Ron Barnard says that personally, he finds foreclosure sad, even tragic. “But as a business owner, I think it’s great.”

dirtbag

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cashman– When you say you haven’t seen any examples of this, you mean in The OC, right? There are plenty of them down here in sunny San Diego, but I can’t speak to the Great Orange North.

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Whoa, whoa. You go away for a weekend and it gets turned into not speaking up?

I’ve been visiting new developments for over a year now and I am neither surprised or disappointed at the amount of traffic cruising through the models. I (fairly) obviously didn’t visit any this weekend, but I’ve been within the last couple of weeks.

I will definitely say traffic is up, but that’s compared to the last quarter of 2006. Traffic (to me) still seems down from this time last year and I saw heavy traffic at both 4S and Del Sur for good parts of last year. And to that I say so what? Here are the important things to note.

Traffic does not equal sales. I see some people taking what SDR posted and thinking that increases in traffic translates into sales. This is, of course, not necessarily the case. It’s all about conversions to sales and if this were direct mail, it would be a campaign that’s not doing very well. Sending 2 gabillion pieces instead of a gabillion pieces might help, but you still don’t really have a product that people are just dying to buy and at some point it’s the law of diminishing returns.

Most of the builders have standing inventory right now. Plain and simple, they have houses people could move in tomorrow and they’re still not selling them. Yes, they sell some, but they always will. And this is at a time when they’re controlling the heck out of inventory.

I always tell my wife that you can sell anything if the price is right. Simple market dynamics, right? The builders get this and have definitely adjusted prices accordingly. Pienzas are the exact same houses Fieldstone sold 18 months ago for $100K more. Another 4S development that just closed out called Garden Walk sold relatively well throughout 2006 because they lowered their prices ahead of the market. What I’ve seen is that the price reductions help for a little bit, then it stalls, and then the cycle repeats. I have seen nothing to make me think otherwise yet.

Also, make no mistake that simply having a bunch of relatively new developments come on-line (as 4S does right now) boosts traffic all by itself. It’s fun to look at model homes and it works so much better when there are a bunch of new ones all right together.

Finally, yes, in general, inventory is flat and sales are up a bit, but don’t kid yourself that even just 17K homes for sale isn’t a lot compared to the last several years and we still don’t know that it’s not going to pick up. Again, my feeling is that some of this sentiment (i.e. market recovery) will actually contribute to the inventory picking back up.

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Unfortunately, I believe Zillow lists some loans and foreclosure sales as ordinary sales as well, so it can be hard to tell what’s going on sometimes. Others with access to better sources can differentiate.

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I’ve been thinking that rumors of the market’s recovery could actually help fuel further declines. How you ask?

One of the main reasons that some consider the market to be picking up is based on the fact that inventory hasn’t come back as quickly as some expected. This leaner (although still significant) inventory has helped spur a few additional sales. Nothing fantastic, but the listing to pending to sales ratios are certainly better than they were.

One of the reasons put forth that inventory is down is because those sellers “testing” the market have left. If this is indeed true, then when these “testers” catch wind of a recovering market, they’ll be right back. After all, why not?

Up goes inventory and the ratios start going backward and then it’s just a replay of last year.

I could be wrong of course, but I guess time will tell. These re-listers tell me I could be right though…

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Bringing this back to the question at hand–Derby Hill and the Pardee family of fine homes…

The developers in CV have pretty much stopped negotiating altogether. Traffic has been brisk over there.

I kind of thought the same thing myself having visited the models for Arabella, Santa Rosa, and Derby Hill for the first time recently. It sure seemed like things were peppy, people were checking out models, walkin’ lots. They also talk a pretty good game (I will admit they’re nice), but are the homes actually selling?

A bunch of Arabellas and Santa Rosas were listed on the MLS over the last couple of days. It’s the same standing inventory they’ve had for at least a little while and they just had new release events as well along with the accompanying mail and email. To top it off, I just got an email today regarding a special one-day only (!) invite only (!) pricing event for Arabellas.

These don’t seem like the marketing tactics of somebody with houses flying off the shelves… If you ask me, the non-negotiating angle is just another sales approach–gee, if they won’t negotiate, I must need to hurry or something.

This was the same tactic I saw with a couple of developers in Del Sur–right up until they dropped prices $50-75K.

Patience my friends, patience.

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Since I posted, another Santaluz property came back from the dead (at a higher price!). This one was had been off market for about a month and had already been relisted at least once. It’s effectively been on the market for over a year. Here’s the recap:

Listed 1/26/2006 $1,299,000
Reduced 3/31/2006 $1,239,000
Reduced 5/10/2006 $1,187,000
Reduced 5/31/2006 $1,129,000
Reduced 7/11/2006 $1,090,000
Reduced 8/29/2006 $995,000

Relisted 12/12/2006 $995,000
(off the market after 3 days)

Re-relisted 1/30/2007 $1,089,000-$1,195,000
(listing went active today)

I’m sure it’s worth another 90 to 200 kilobucks today.

Must… rush out… and buy…

Okay, maybe not.

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