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sdcellar
Participantrobyns_song, wantobuy–
Sorry to offer up further detail and then disappear for a few days. Just been too busy since I posted last.
Anyway, the Silhouettes were first offered at starting prices of $780K, $860K, and $880K for the plans 1, 2, and 3 respectively. This was in the beginning of March 2006.
They had the phase 1A release around the first week and here were the actual plans and prices:
2B – $862,990
2B – $865,990
3C – $888,290
1C – $786,140
2B – $880,340
3C – $882,490I believe exactly 2 of those went into contract (can’t say whether those ulimately closed). This prompted them to reduce the starting prices to $750, $830, and $830 within about 3 weeks.
In July, they lower the price of the 1C above to $711,595. It was in the MLS until two weeks ago, don’t know if it sold, but maybe not, based on what you’re saying.
Same timeframe (July) they listed a plan 3 for $810,965. Not quite as big a drop, but they reduced it to $798,451 at the end of September, $734,451 in the middle of November and it finally closed escrow for $714,451 on December 28.
So from this, you can see that you should offer at most $675 for a plan 1 (and please don’t take this to mean it shouldn’t be or won’t go lower than that). They’ve only built 12 so far and still haven’t sold all of them, so that’ll give you an idea of your negotiating power.
Also, I have an options price list and I know you were interested, but kind of hard to get that to you, but again if you have specifc questions… (and I’ll try to respond more quickly this time!)
ParticipantA little late to the party, but my opinion is that it’s someplace in the middle. I’ve been watching 4S Ranch for about a year now, and they have definitely slowed down construction. In my opinion, it’s simply an issue of inventory control. Given the choice between empty lots and empty homes, I think some builders are choosing empty lots.
I agree with Bugs that at some point, the best thing to do is get these suckers built, sold, and get out of Dodge unless the builder believes things are going to turn around (which I don’t think they really do).
Now with John Laing and these Silhouette homes specifcally, I can tell you that they have, for all practical purposes, stopped construction. The 10 or so completed homes you see were started a year ago and finished, I don’t know, maybe 6 months ago. They can absolutely build more and faster, but they’re not. Unless they’ve put up sticks in the last 3 weeks, the foundations you see have been there for almost a year.
They seem intent on finishing Rosemary Lane first and that is going pretty slowly as well although it is *almost* finished.
John Laing seems to be the slowest in 4S Ranch right now and while I agree that they seem as good (or better) than anything available right now, they’re just not selling. They dropped their prices significantly (twice) in the last year, but it’s been a while since the last reduction occurred (maybe 5 months?). I can get you exact dates and reductions if you’re interested.
I think you’re right on the money with a lower offer. They had one on the MLS since late last year that just went off (I assume it sold) and that was at $714,000. It never hurts to ask.
One other footnote is that John Laing was purchased about a year ago by Emaar Properties, a Dubai-based developer. I believe they have a gazillion dollars and certainly that could affect JLH’s dynamics just a little differently than other builders. Of course, a lot of their money is in real estate, so perhaps it’s only a matter of time before they only have a bazillion dollars…
ParticipantSorry sdrealtor! I didn’t really realize there were so many homes on that street.
Anyway, thanks for the feedback and I agree that you’ve done all you can to give us insight and in the end, I really do agree with you that people really just want to settle in to that last home they’ll grow old in.
Factor in people holding onto real estate here because at some point it’s just too cheap not too, and it’s hard characterize any of it generally! (and even worse in the last 5 years or so, right?)
I should close by apologizing that I conveniently forgot that my parents actually do still own the house they bought when we moved to San Diego (in 1978). I was thinking of things in terms of residence rather than ownership. So, see even for me, I know more people who have held real estate for 20+ years than I thought I did.
Again, thanks a lot. I know I really appreciate your insider’s view and your expertise extends well beyond the bubble of the last few years. I’m glad you share it with us.
For myself, I’ve been aware of this stuff for about, oh, 9 months or so. That should give you a good idea of the depth of my knowledge. I definitely think I have a clue, but I know I’ve still got a lot to learn.
ParticipantThe 5 to 7 year average isn’t mine, just what I’ve heard. It actually shouldn’t even be a range like that, rather just a number (like 6.8 or 14.2). I’d think either the NAR or some government source (or both) would have this number. Heck, there should even be a number for the number of homes people own in their lifetime.
Heck, I’d say the point I’m really trying to make is that people go through several homes before hunkering down. I don’t know a good way to figure that out, so I figured we’d try to back into it with tenure.
I understand about the clock ticking thing, but again, ignoring previous tenures for homes when they’re short is going to skew things as well. It’s really all prior ownership that’s going to give you precise length of ownership numbers (right?). No matter how one does it, the key is to be consistent.
For a new street, let’s follow Bugs lead and try Mt. Elbrus in Clairemont. I don’t know if there are power lines or not, but it looks like it’s near a park, so that’s usually good.
Finally, I agree with you that I think tenures are going to trend upward, but I’d probably refer to it as dropping anchor rather than laying down roots! This will, of course, be skewed by some of these foreclosures we seem to be hearing about, so who knows what where the “average” will go.
ParticipantThanks for the data sdrealtor, this is fun. Turns out the averages for your three examples are 13.2, 13.6, and 10.3. The medians are 13.6, 11, and 9.5.
Certainly higher than your current 8 years, around my max of 10, and kind of in between what I understand the actual average to be and the 20+ figure that you suggest is so common. I’ll admit that with 15 of the 76 at 20 or more years, that’s twice as many my personal estimate of 5 in 50 (20% vs. 10%), but hey, I only have 4 sets of grandparents and my parents like buying houses. What can I say!
I did find it a little curious that you mentioned prior owners when they exceed 5 years, but never when they were less. Come on, there had to be quite a few of those! I understand that your point is that it’s these short timers that throw everything off, but if you’re going to ignore one set of outliers…
But while I’m throwing stones, I also now realize that the street I picked doesn’t seem much more than 20 years old, so that makes it just a *little* bit harder to find owners who have held that long on that street (and the data seems to bear that out).
Anyway, it’s been fun and I agree with you that most people ultimately end up in a house for many years, but it’s usually just one house and it takes several to get there. So while it’s probably safe to say that most people are looking for a home to grow old in, often times, the next one isn’t it.
ParticipantSomething you guys aren’t considering is that there are starter neighborhoods, move up neighborhoods and destination neighborhoods.
Actually, I am and that’s why I let sdrealtor pick the zip. I knew I’d get something closer to Point Loma than to Clairemont…
There are places where a more significant number of people choose to buy their “dream home” (or home to grow old in as some people put it!), and there are places that are not that.
That said, even a lot of fairly modest zips probably have a decent number loyal homeowners. I know I’ve lived in a few of those.
Participantkewp– I like to fancy myself libertarian, but I make quite a few exceptions myself! I guess I like some government when it suits me.
I too, have accepted (and voted for) some taxes that encourage what most would generally consider positive behavior, but at some point it gets tough to determine when such measures transition into punishments and you’re taking it out on the wrong party! (and I also rarely have confidence that the money is used properly, especially in the long run)
Well, I better stop now as I’ve taken things decidely off topic and I’m dying to hear the results for Reposado Drive…
ParticipantSDR, Let’s try Reposado Drive!
ParticipantIt’s really the Millenials that have been a spoiled bunch. They’ll learn.
ParticipantDoesn’t matter if you’re in the same area. The question is how long people own their homes. Even your example doesn’t fit in the 20+ category.
Are you sure it’s not me that you agree with?
Also, I know I picked on you about the water tax, but I failed to commend you on your condemnation of farming subsidies. Another thread I know, but just want to make it clear that we see eye to eye sometimes!
ParticipantWhat is the best strategy if I am a buyer and would like to get the best deal ?
Wait another year?
ParticipantI don’t *think* it’s the bias thing (well, it always is to some extent). My pool is family, lifelong friends, past and present co-workers, and the like. It could certainly be my age. In my mid-40’s, most of contemporaries haven’t even had the opportunity to have owned the same house for 20 years.
That said, I’m not particularly mobile myself. I’ve lived in San Diego since 1978 and California since 1970. Most of the people I’m talking about share similar demographics with the exception of some poor Ohioans. I am a technology guy, so that might have a bit more of a mobility bent.
I’d say your street thing is certainly less anectodal, but you’re definitely right that it will still have a socio-economic bias. Let’s have some fun with this, you pick a zip code, then I’ll pick a street and we’ll see what the metrics are (and I promise to pick a street that can be found in a 1987 Thomas Guide…)
ParticipantAnecdotally, it seems like most stay longer.
It doesn’t seem like you’re one of those anecdotes (and I thought for sure that you were).
We probably travel in different circles, but I’m hard pressed to come up with many people/families I know that have been in the same house since 1987. I think I know about 5 (out of what’s got to be easily 50). Not exactly what I would call most. Of course, that’s my anecdotal pool.
ParticipantSome renters get to stay in their rentals for 20+ years
But just some. Isn’t the average length residence something like 5-7 years? I know my stints were 2, 4, 10, and 5 years.
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