[SD Realtor]

Agreed that the low 10 year is best for the housing recession however the best way to get the correction underway would be a higher 10 year. As long as the 10 year is low then there is some facet of affordability to the housing market. Actually 3.78 is pretty darn low if you look at the 10 year yield back to 1965. In fact the two lowest points we have had SINCE 1965 have been the yield a few weeks ago and the yield back in 2003.

I do not argue about the possibilities of a Japan style scenario that occurred in the 90s. However one thing I have never heard anyone explain is how we will continue to get our astronomical debt financed at 1-2% treasury yields.

The other thing that is somewhat “not fitting the data” in my opinion is the low inflation expectations. While the “official” measurement du jour of inflation does not indicate high inflation, anyone that has kids and has to buy alot of milk will tell you otherwise. Similarly nobody can honestly say with a straight face that you cannot count energy costs for inflation. So while there may be an official inflation number that is in check so to speak, the reality of the situation is that a measureable amount of personal income does indeed go to basic goods and services in comparison to the no to distant pass cost of those same goods and services.

Don’t get me wrong, Your point may be correct. Just to be sure though, you are saying that you believe the 10 year will hit levels that it basically has never hit before. Which would be awesome for housing. A 10 year at 1.5% puts a fixed rate conforming loan at 3%… Not bad at all. At the same time our debt will continue to be financed by foreign entities who will buy these instruments at that low of a yield.

Not sure if I agree but I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Agreed that the low 10 year is best for the housing recession however the best way to get the correction underway would be a higher 10 year. As long as the 10 year is low then there is some facet of affordability to the housing market. Actually 3.78 is pretty darn low if you look at the 10 year yield back to 1965. In fact the two lowest points we have had SINCE 1965 have been the yield a few weeks ago and the yield back in 2003.

I do not argue about the possibilities of a Japan style scenario that occurred in the 90s. However one thing I have never heard anyone explain is how we will continue to get our astronomical debt financed at 1-2% treasury yields.

The other thing that is somewhat “not fitting the data” in my opinion is the low inflation expectations. While the “official” measurement du jour of inflation does not indicate high inflation, anyone that has kids and has to buy alot of milk will tell you otherwise. Similarly nobody can honestly say with a straight face that you cannot count energy costs for inflation. So while there may be an official inflation number that is in check so to speak, the reality of the situation is that a measureable amount of personal income does indeed go to basic goods and services in comparison to the no to distant pass cost of those same goods and services.

Don’t get me wrong, Your point may be correct. Just to be sure though, you are saying that you believe the 10 year will hit levels that it basically has never hit before. Which would be awesome for housing. A 10 year at 1.5% puts a fixed rate conforming loan at 3%… Not bad at all. At the same time our debt will continue to be financed by foreign entities who will buy these instruments at that low of a yield.

Not sure if I agree but I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Agreed that the low 10 year is best for the housing recession however the best way to get the correction underway would be a higher 10 year. As long as the 10 year is low then there is some facet of affordability to the housing market. Actually 3.78 is pretty darn low if you look at the 10 year yield back to 1965. In fact the two lowest points we have had SINCE 1965 have been the yield a few weeks ago and the yield back in 2003.

I do not argue about the possibilities of a Japan style scenario that occurred in the 90s. However one thing I have never heard anyone explain is how we will continue to get our astronomical debt financed at 1-2% treasury yields.

The other thing that is somewhat “not fitting the data” in my opinion is the low inflation expectations. While the “official” measurement du jour of inflation does not indicate high inflation, anyone that has kids and has to buy alot of milk will tell you otherwise. Similarly nobody can honestly say with a straight face that you cannot count energy costs for inflation. So while there may be an official inflation number that is in check so to speak, the reality of the situation is that a measureable amount of personal income does indeed go to basic goods and services in comparison to the no to distant pass cost of those same goods and services.

Don’t get me wrong, Your point may be correct. Just to be sure though, you are saying that you believe the 10 year will hit levels that it basically has never hit before. Which would be awesome for housing. A 10 year at 1.5% puts a fixed rate conforming loan at 3%… Not bad at all. At the same time our debt will continue to be financed by foreign entities who will buy these instruments at that low of a yield.

Not sure if I agree but I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Agreed that the low 10 year is best for the housing recession however the best way to get the correction underway would be a higher 10 year. As long as the 10 year is low then there is some facet of affordability to the housing market. Actually 3.78 is pretty darn low if you look at the 10 year yield back to 1965. In fact the two lowest points we have had SINCE 1965 have been the yield a few weeks ago and the yield back in 2003.

I do not argue about the possibilities of a Japan style scenario that occurred in the 90s. However one thing I have never heard anyone explain is how we will continue to get our astronomical debt financed at 1-2% treasury yields.

The other thing that is somewhat “not fitting the data” in my opinion is the low inflation expectations. While the “official” measurement du jour of inflation does not indicate high inflation, anyone that has kids and has to buy alot of milk will tell you otherwise. Similarly nobody can honestly say with a straight face that you cannot count energy costs for inflation. So while there may be an official inflation number that is in check so to speak, the reality of the situation is that a measureable amount of personal income does indeed go to basic goods and services in comparison to the no to distant pass cost of those same goods and services.

Don’t get me wrong, Your point may be correct. Just to be sure though, you are saying that you believe the 10 year will hit levels that it basically has never hit before. Which would be awesome for housing. A 10 year at 1.5% puts a fixed rate conforming loan at 3%… Not bad at all. At the same time our debt will continue to be financed by foreign entities who will buy these instruments at that low of a yield.

Not sure if I agree but I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Yes I have been bad… These statistical/data mining posts are just a pain in the booty to keep current. Sorry bout that….I really should wait until Tuesday to capture the weekend activity but if I do there is no telling when I would update this thread…

2/17/08
1/29/08

41 actives (17 shorts, 3 REO) Wow almost half!!!
10 pendings (4 shorts)

– 9 new actives listed since 1/29
– 4 of the new actives is short
– 1 of the new actives is an REO
– 5 new pendings that went pending after 1/29
– 3 expired since 1/29 (two relisted)
– 1 withdrawn since 1/29
– 7 solds since 1/29
– 2 of the solds were short and the sales price was in the price range albeit at the bottom of the range.

****************

2/17/08

92130

141 actives (3 short, 5 REO)
35 pendings (2 short 3 REO)

43 new listings since 1/29/08!!!!
1 new listing is short and 2 are REO
17 new pendings since 1/29
1 of the new pendings is short and 1 REO.
8 expireds since 1/29
6 cancelled since 1/29
5 withdrawns since 1/29
12 solds since 1/29.

Musings… Our favorite Caminito Stella is still pending. Mesa Norte also went pending. My read on that is it will fetch between 1.75-1.8M. Finally, seems like alot of comment fields denoting that seller is an agent or related to the owner.

Double Musings…

The owner of the FSBO in Derby Hills called me last week. She is currently in escrow and is looking to buy another home in Santa Luz. She said she did quite well on that and her buyer is a cash buyer. She wants me to show her homes and only called cuz of my rebate. She said she basically wanted someone to get her in the door and she would do the rest. She told me she would not sign a contract with me so basically she wanted me to show her properties with no committment. I actually do work with many people without contracts but there is an element of trust I have developed with them. I may get burned but if so then that is my fault. With her, I guess it was nice of her to be up front about pretty much wasting my time.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I have been bad… These statistical/data mining posts are just a pain in the booty to keep current. Sorry bout that….I really should wait until Tuesday to capture the weekend activity but if I do there is no telling when I would update this thread…

2/17/08
1/29/08

41 actives (17 shorts, 3 REO) Wow almost half!!!
10 pendings (4 shorts)

– 9 new actives listed since 1/29
– 4 of the new actives is short
– 1 of the new actives is an REO
– 5 new pendings that went pending after 1/29
– 3 expired since 1/29 (two relisted)
– 1 withdrawn since 1/29
– 7 solds since 1/29
– 2 of the solds were short and the sales price was in the price range albeit at the bottom of the range.

****************

2/17/08

92130

141 actives (3 short, 5 REO)
35 pendings (2 short 3 REO)

43 new listings since 1/29/08!!!!
1 new listing is short and 2 are REO
17 new pendings since 1/29
1 of the new pendings is short and 1 REO.
8 expireds since 1/29
6 cancelled since 1/29
5 withdrawns since 1/29
12 solds since 1/29.

Musings… Our favorite Caminito Stella is still pending. Mesa Norte also went pending. My read on that is it will fetch between 1.75-1.8M. Finally, seems like alot of comment fields denoting that seller is an agent or related to the owner.

Double Musings…

The owner of the FSBO in Derby Hills called me last week. She is currently in escrow and is looking to buy another home in Santa Luz. She said she did quite well on that and her buyer is a cash buyer. She wants me to show her homes and only called cuz of my rebate. She said she basically wanted someone to get her in the door and she would do the rest. She told me she would not sign a contract with me so basically she wanted me to show her properties with no committment. I actually do work with many people without contracts but there is an element of trust I have developed with them. I may get burned but if so then that is my fault. With her, I guess it was nice of her to be up front about pretty much wasting my time.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I have been bad… These statistical/data mining posts are just a pain in the booty to keep current. Sorry bout that….I really should wait until Tuesday to capture the weekend activity but if I do there is no telling when I would update this thread…

2/17/08
1/29/08

41 actives (17 shorts, 3 REO) Wow almost half!!!
10 pendings (4 shorts)

– 9 new actives listed since 1/29
– 4 of the new actives is short
– 1 of the new actives is an REO
– 5 new pendings that went pending after 1/29
– 3 expired since 1/29 (two relisted)
– 1 withdrawn since 1/29
– 7 solds since 1/29
– 2 of the solds were short and the sales price was in the price range albeit at the bottom of the range.

****************

2/17/08

92130

141 actives (3 short, 5 REO)
35 pendings (2 short 3 REO)

43 new listings since 1/29/08!!!!
1 new listing is short and 2 are REO
17 new pendings since 1/29
1 of the new pendings is short and 1 REO.
8 expireds since 1/29
6 cancelled since 1/29
5 withdrawns since 1/29
12 solds since 1/29.

Musings… Our favorite Caminito Stella is still pending. Mesa Norte also went pending. My read on that is it will fetch between 1.75-1.8M. Finally, seems like alot of comment fields denoting that seller is an agent or related to the owner.

Double Musings…

The owner of the FSBO in Derby Hills called me last week. She is currently in escrow and is looking to buy another home in Santa Luz. She said she did quite well on that and her buyer is a cash buyer. She wants me to show her homes and only called cuz of my rebate. She said she basically wanted someone to get her in the door and she would do the rest. She told me she would not sign a contract with me so basically she wanted me to show her properties with no committment. I actually do work with many people without contracts but there is an element of trust I have developed with them. I may get burned but if so then that is my fault. With her, I guess it was nice of her to be up front about pretty much wasting my time.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I have been bad… These statistical/data mining posts are just a pain in the booty to keep current. Sorry bout that….I really should wait until Tuesday to capture the weekend activity but if I do there is no telling when I would update this thread…

2/17/08
1/29/08

41 actives (17 shorts, 3 REO) Wow almost half!!!
10 pendings (4 shorts)

– 9 new actives listed since 1/29
– 4 of the new actives is short
– 1 of the new actives is an REO
– 5 new pendings that went pending after 1/29
– 3 expired since 1/29 (two relisted)
– 1 withdrawn since 1/29
– 7 solds since 1/29
– 2 of the solds were short and the sales price was in the price range albeit at the bottom of the range.

****************

2/17/08

92130

141 actives (3 short, 5 REO)
35 pendings (2 short 3 REO)

43 new listings since 1/29/08!!!!
1 new listing is short and 2 are REO
17 new pendings since 1/29
1 of the new pendings is short and 1 REO.
8 expireds since 1/29
6 cancelled since 1/29
5 withdrawns since 1/29
12 solds since 1/29.

Musings… Our favorite Caminito Stella is still pending. Mesa Norte also went pending. My read on that is it will fetch between 1.75-1.8M. Finally, seems like alot of comment fields denoting that seller is an agent or related to the owner.

Double Musings…

The owner of the FSBO in Derby Hills called me last week. She is currently in escrow and is looking to buy another home in Santa Luz. She said she did quite well on that and her buyer is a cash buyer. She wants me to show her homes and only called cuz of my rebate. She said she basically wanted someone to get her in the door and she would do the rest. She told me she would not sign a contract with me so basically she wanted me to show her properties with no committment. I actually do work with many people without contracts but there is an element of trust I have developed with them. I may get burned but if so then that is my fault. With her, I guess it was nice of her to be up front about pretty much wasting my time.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I have been bad… These statistical/data mining posts are just a pain in the booty to keep current. Sorry bout that….I really should wait until Tuesday to capture the weekend activity but if I do there is no telling when I would update this thread…

2/17/08
1/29/08

41 actives (17 shorts, 3 REO) Wow almost half!!!
10 pendings (4 shorts)

– 9 new actives listed since 1/29
– 4 of the new actives is short
– 1 of the new actives is an REO
– 5 new pendings that went pending after 1/29
– 3 expired since 1/29 (two relisted)
– 1 withdrawn since 1/29
– 7 solds since 1/29
– 2 of the solds were short and the sales price was in the price range albeit at the bottom of the range.

****************

2/17/08

92130

141 actives (3 short, 5 REO)
35 pendings (2 short 3 REO)

43 new listings since 1/29/08!!!!
1 new listing is short and 2 are REO
17 new pendings since 1/29
1 of the new pendings is short and 1 REO.
8 expireds since 1/29
6 cancelled since 1/29
5 withdrawns since 1/29
12 solds since 1/29.

Musings… Our favorite Caminito Stella is still pending. Mesa Norte also went pending. My read on that is it will fetch between 1.75-1.8M. Finally, seems like alot of comment fields denoting that seller is an agent or related to the owner.

Double Musings…

The owner of the FSBO in Derby Hills called me last week. She is currently in escrow and is looking to buy another home in Santa Luz. She said she did quite well on that and her buyer is a cash buyer. She wants me to show her homes and only called cuz of my rebate. She said she basically wanted someone to get her in the door and she would do the rest. She told me she would not sign a contract with me so basically she wanted me to show her properties with no committment. I actually do work with many people without contracts but there is an element of trust I have developed with them. I may get burned but if so then that is my fault. With her, I guess it was nice of her to be up front about pretty much wasting my time.

[SD Realtor]

“Over the long term, I think there are some Class A tenants who would be willing to move to Class B space if the rent differential made it worth their while.”

Funny you mention that Bugs. Right now I am negotiating a new lease for a business my wife owns. She is finishing up a 5 year term in class A space and we are searching in some class B/B+ space which should reduce our rent by close to 50% with very little loss of business. Our landlords in the current class A space refuse to budge on base rent price and it is also a NNN lease. Most of the class B/B+ buildings we are looking at are modified or full gross.

SD Realtor

[Author]

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