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HereWeGo.
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February 17, 2008 at 5:41 PM #11846February 17, 2008 at 6:17 PM #154621
equalizer
ParticipantNever underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.February 17, 2008 at 6:17 PM #154999equalizer
ParticipantNever underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.February 17, 2008 at 6:17 PM #154899equalizer
ParticipantNever underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.February 17, 2008 at 6:17 PM #154908equalizer
ParticipantNever underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.February 17, 2008 at 6:17 PM #154921equalizer
ParticipantNever underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.February 17, 2008 at 6:46 PM #154641SD Realtor
ParticipantEqualizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.
SD Realtor
February 17, 2008 at 6:46 PM #155019SD Realtor
ParticipantEqualizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.
SD Realtor
February 17, 2008 at 6:46 PM #154941SD Realtor
ParticipantEqualizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.
SD Realtor
February 17, 2008 at 6:46 PM #154918SD Realtor
ParticipantEqualizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.
SD Realtor
February 17, 2008 at 6:46 PM #154927SD Realtor
ParticipantEqualizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.
SD Realtor
February 17, 2008 at 7:01 PM #154937Eugene
ParticipantLow 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.
There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.
If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.
February 17, 2008 at 7:01 PM #155029Eugene
ParticipantLow 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.
There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.
If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.
February 17, 2008 at 7:01 PM #154951Eugene
ParticipantLow 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.
There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.
If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.
February 17, 2008 at 7:01 PM #154929Eugene
ParticipantLow 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.
There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.
If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.
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