Let’s talk 10 yr treasuries

[SD Realtor]

As you guys know… one of my favorite topics…

Any thoughts?

My read is that perhaps we saw the lowest yield we will see in a long time a few weeks ago. For a brief moment that sucker was way down there but over the past couple weeks it has been on the rise again.

One thing for sure, and I believe Josh you have pointed this out repeatedly, and that is even with the conforming limit cielings moved up, if the 10 year doesn’t want to play nice, there is not much anybody can do. Friday the 10 year closed at 3.78 which by historical standards is seriously low. Looking at the 5 year chart back in 03 the 10 year bottomed out in June near 3.2 I think. By August that sucker was a 4.5. 130 basis points in the blink of an eye by any standards. Will we see that? I doubt it. Yet we were at about 5.2 less then a year ago. Holy canole that is quite a move down.

Some people would think it is time to load up on a rising rates fund. Me, I get burned on stuff like that to much. I do know, that if the bond market starts to tank, it will put a hurtin on the already crippled home market. It will also hurt people who are indeed thinking of buying. It may be time to adjust your spreadsheets people.

I will be interested to hear what saving bond traders think.

[equalizer]

Never underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.

[equalizer]

Never underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.

[equalizer]

Never underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.

[equalizer]

Never underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.

[equalizer]

Never underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Equalizer I will be damned!!! I bought rrpix a few years ago and got sizzled as well. You would think the shmucks running it could simply correlate of the inverse… Agreed with what you said… I am a boob when it comes to predicting the bond market.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

Low 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.

There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.

If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.

[Eugene]

Low 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.

There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.

If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.

[Eugene]

Low 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.

There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.

If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.

[Eugene]

Low 10-year is the best cure we have for the housing recession. Everything is possible but it’s common sense for the Fed to try to keep it low.

There are two components of low 10-year: low inflation expectations and depressed stock market.

If you think 3.78 is seriously low, consider that 90’s Japan started higher than we did and they ended up with 10-year treasury rates in 1-2% for a decade.

[Author]

Posts