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March 14, 2008 at 9:53 PM in reply to: Hold on sparkies…We’re just at the beginning of all the “bailouts” efforts. #170214March 14, 2008 at 9:53 PM in reply to: Hold on sparkies…We’re just at the beginning of all the “bailouts” efforts. #170235
SD Realtor
ParticipantYes FLU I am in your camp as well. It seems easier for many posters to handwave and say none of these bailouts will help. Unfortunately there is only tacit acknowledgement that that is not the point. The point is it is going to cost me as a taxpayer dearly, it will not help anything, and indeed the beauracracy, fraud, and overhead that it will create will be a tidy little side affect to the entire problem. Many more people will make lots of money off of what will be a taxpayer funded shenanigan… but don’t worry, it won’t help right?
SD Realtor
March 14, 2008 at 9:53 PM in reply to: Hold on sparkies…We’re just at the beginning of all the “bailouts” efforts. #170313ParticipantYes FLU I am in your camp as well. It seems easier for many posters to handwave and say none of these bailouts will help. Unfortunately there is only tacit acknowledgement that that is not the point. The point is it is going to cost me as a taxpayer dearly, it will not help anything, and indeed the beauracracy, fraud, and overhead that it will create will be a tidy little side affect to the entire problem. Many more people will make lots of money off of what will be a taxpayer funded shenanigan… but don’t worry, it won’t help right?
SD Realtor
March 14, 2008 at 9:37 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #169871ParticipantGuys I have to say that over the past year that I have known Chris he has been very straight up in his advice which I have solicited more then a few times…. He has always posted how he has done and his thoughts on the markets on his website. I do not know anyone who has ever called the market 100% correctly. What is interesting is that people with perspectives that in the long run they will make money off the market (in the long direction) seem to get knocked around here. I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Chris has probably made more money in the markets then most people here will ever make. This is not a knock on anyone here, moreover just a statement of fact.
Indeed I also query many people about the bond markets and Chris has indeed blown all of them away with his calls on the behavior of that market which indeed is his specialty.
Finally yes Chris has done business with me, but I can attest to his calls and he has nothing to hide… It is on his site so anyone is free to check it out.
March 14, 2008 at 9:37 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170203ParticipantGuys I have to say that over the past year that I have known Chris he has been very straight up in his advice which I have solicited more then a few times…. He has always posted how he has done and his thoughts on the markets on his website. I do not know anyone who has ever called the market 100% correctly. What is interesting is that people with perspectives that in the long run they will make money off the market (in the long direction) seem to get knocked around here. I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Chris has probably made more money in the markets then most people here will ever make. This is not a knock on anyone here, moreover just a statement of fact.
Indeed I also query many people about the bond markets and Chris has indeed blown all of them away with his calls on the behavior of that market which indeed is his specialty.
Finally yes Chris has done business with me, but I can attest to his calls and he has nothing to hide… It is on his site so anyone is free to check it out.
March 14, 2008 at 9:37 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170209ParticipantGuys I have to say that over the past year that I have known Chris he has been very straight up in his advice which I have solicited more then a few times…. He has always posted how he has done and his thoughts on the markets on his website. I do not know anyone who has ever called the market 100% correctly. What is interesting is that people with perspectives that in the long run they will make money off the market (in the long direction) seem to get knocked around here. I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Chris has probably made more money in the markets then most people here will ever make. This is not a knock on anyone here, moreover just a statement of fact.
Indeed I also query many people about the bond markets and Chris has indeed blown all of them away with his calls on the behavior of that market which indeed is his specialty.
Finally yes Chris has done business with me, but I can attest to his calls and he has nothing to hide… It is on his site so anyone is free to check it out.
March 14, 2008 at 9:37 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170230ParticipantGuys I have to say that over the past year that I have known Chris he has been very straight up in his advice which I have solicited more then a few times…. He has always posted how he has done and his thoughts on the markets on his website. I do not know anyone who has ever called the market 100% correctly. What is interesting is that people with perspectives that in the long run they will make money off the market (in the long direction) seem to get knocked around here. I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Chris has probably made more money in the markets then most people here will ever make. This is not a knock on anyone here, moreover just a statement of fact.
Indeed I also query many people about the bond markets and Chris has indeed blown all of them away with his calls on the behavior of that market which indeed is his specialty.
Finally yes Chris has done business with me, but I can attest to his calls and he has nothing to hide… It is on his site so anyone is free to check it out.
March 14, 2008 at 9:37 PM in reply to: I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bear Streans is more or less finished. #170308ParticipantGuys I have to say that over the past year that I have known Chris he has been very straight up in his advice which I have solicited more then a few times…. He has always posted how he has done and his thoughts on the markets on his website. I do not know anyone who has ever called the market 100% correctly. What is interesting is that people with perspectives that in the long run they will make money off the market (in the long direction) seem to get knocked around here. I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Chris has probably made more money in the markets then most people here will ever make. This is not a knock on anyone here, moreover just a statement of fact.
Indeed I also query many people about the bond markets and Chris has indeed blown all of them away with his calls on the behavior of that market which indeed is his specialty.
Finally yes Chris has done business with me, but I can attest to his calls and he has nothing to hide… It is on his site so anyone is free to check it out.
ParticipantJimcav I have a question, are you trying to find a price you can afford or are you trying to find the bottom or near bottom of the market?
I am consistently puzzled by queries of what the price points will be when the market is at or near the bottom? If you are looking for what will be affordable to you then I guess trying to find the ideal price point is the way to go. Otherwise I would look at it another way. That is, try to identify when the depreciation risk has been unwound. To me you don’t do that by looking at a particular price point, rather look at other metrics such as volume leveling off, sales rates leveling off, looking at loan resets to see how much of them are bled off, keep an eye on foreclosure rates… All of these factors together are what we all looked at to conclude the market eventually had to go down. Once these indicators start to and at least stop increasing then you can make an assessment of where pricing is at and thus start to select neighborhoods that fit your school selection, pocketbook, etc…
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimcav I have a question, are you trying to find a price you can afford or are you trying to find the bottom or near bottom of the market?
I am consistently puzzled by queries of what the price points will be when the market is at or near the bottom? If you are looking for what will be affordable to you then I guess trying to find the ideal price point is the way to go. Otherwise I would look at it another way. That is, try to identify when the depreciation risk has been unwound. To me you don’t do that by looking at a particular price point, rather look at other metrics such as volume leveling off, sales rates leveling off, looking at loan resets to see how much of them are bled off, keep an eye on foreclosure rates… All of these factors together are what we all looked at to conclude the market eventually had to go down. Once these indicators start to and at least stop increasing then you can make an assessment of where pricing is at and thus start to select neighborhoods that fit your school selection, pocketbook, etc…
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimcav I have a question, are you trying to find a price you can afford or are you trying to find the bottom or near bottom of the market?
I am consistently puzzled by queries of what the price points will be when the market is at or near the bottom? If you are looking for what will be affordable to you then I guess trying to find the ideal price point is the way to go. Otherwise I would look at it another way. That is, try to identify when the depreciation risk has been unwound. To me you don’t do that by looking at a particular price point, rather look at other metrics such as volume leveling off, sales rates leveling off, looking at loan resets to see how much of them are bled off, keep an eye on foreclosure rates… All of these factors together are what we all looked at to conclude the market eventually had to go down. Once these indicators start to and at least stop increasing then you can make an assessment of where pricing is at and thus start to select neighborhoods that fit your school selection, pocketbook, etc…
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimcav I have a question, are you trying to find a price you can afford or are you trying to find the bottom or near bottom of the market?
I am consistently puzzled by queries of what the price points will be when the market is at or near the bottom? If you are looking for what will be affordable to you then I guess trying to find the ideal price point is the way to go. Otherwise I would look at it another way. That is, try to identify when the depreciation risk has been unwound. To me you don’t do that by looking at a particular price point, rather look at other metrics such as volume leveling off, sales rates leveling off, looking at loan resets to see how much of them are bled off, keep an eye on foreclosure rates… All of these factors together are what we all looked at to conclude the market eventually had to go down. Once these indicators start to and at least stop increasing then you can make an assessment of where pricing is at and thus start to select neighborhoods that fit your school selection, pocketbook, etc…
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimcav I have a question, are you trying to find a price you can afford or are you trying to find the bottom or near bottom of the market?
I am consistently puzzled by queries of what the price points will be when the market is at or near the bottom? If you are looking for what will be affordable to you then I guess trying to find the ideal price point is the way to go. Otherwise I would look at it another way. That is, try to identify when the depreciation risk has been unwound. To me you don’t do that by looking at a particular price point, rather look at other metrics such as volume leveling off, sales rates leveling off, looking at loan resets to see how much of them are bled off, keep an eye on foreclosure rates… All of these factors together are what we all looked at to conclude the market eventually had to go down. Once these indicators start to and at least stop increasing then you can make an assessment of where pricing is at and thus start to select neighborhoods that fit your school selection, pocketbook, etc…
SD Realtor
ParticipantSounds like we are all pretty much in agreement about Coronado. As I said, or I think I said, I did recently push through a pretty thorough comp search for someone who lives there and prices have indeed come down. Still even with that decrease pricing is still crazy and like each poster here has mentioned “most” residents of the island can hang on and sit it out… Lots of foolish pride as well ya know? Still I do think in the end, while the percentage decline of pricing from the high point will be non trivial.
David, while you may not have a grasp of how many purchases were made that were speculation driven, I don’t think that matters. The big unknown that we will all face in the 2010 timeframe will be how much into the A paper loan resets have we eaten into. The thing I have been struggling with lately is will we be able to chew through the big second wave that is not discussed to much, (with the exception of this site) of course.
At any rate, keep a keen eye on the volume and rate of sales on the island and you should be able to identify when it at least flattens out or alot of the risk is wrung out of the market there.
ParticipantSounds like we are all pretty much in agreement about Coronado. As I said, or I think I said, I did recently push through a pretty thorough comp search for someone who lives there and prices have indeed come down. Still even with that decrease pricing is still crazy and like each poster here has mentioned “most” residents of the island can hang on and sit it out… Lots of foolish pride as well ya know? Still I do think in the end, while the percentage decline of pricing from the high point will be non trivial.
David, while you may not have a grasp of how many purchases were made that were speculation driven, I don’t think that matters. The big unknown that we will all face in the 2010 timeframe will be how much into the A paper loan resets have we eaten into. The thing I have been struggling with lately is will we be able to chew through the big second wave that is not discussed to much, (with the exception of this site) of course.
At any rate, keep a keen eye on the volume and rate of sales on the island and you should be able to identify when it at least flattens out or alot of the risk is wrung out of the market there.
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