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SD Realtor
ParticipantSomeone can correct me but I am pretty sure that April 9th is the date that there will be a hearing to review Barney Franks proposal to permit the FHA to provide up to 300B in loan guarantees for refinancing. Basically in exchange for having lenders accept substantial write-down of principal, lenders would RECEIVE payment fom the proceeds of a new FHA loan if the restructured loan resulted in terms that the borrower can reasonably be expected to pay.
Let’s not forget that the government would be on the hook for these loans.
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I hate posting long quotes but this one from Doug Noland was good regarding last weeks shenanigans…
“As far as I’m concerned, much of the U.S. mortgage market was this week essentially Nationalized. I’ll take the dramatic narrowing in agency debt and MBS spreads as support for this view. Additional support arrived from comments from Mr. Lockhart, Mr. Paulson, and actions by the Federal Reserve. Having lived contently for years with the markets’ interpretation of the (grey-area) “implied” government backing of the GSEs, our policymakers are surely today satisfied with the inferred market acceptance of mortgage industry Nationalization. To be sure, the Fed’s Splashy “Sunday Night Special” bailout of Bear Stearns is rather trivial in both its implications and consequences when compared to Thursday’s Quiet Coup.
Let’s look at the Fed’s denial one more time: “The Federal Reserve is not involved in discussions with foreign central banks for coordinated buying of MBS (mortgage-backed securities).”Reading carefully, that statement is not a denial of having discussions (I presume they are). It is only a denial of “coordinated buying of MBS”. What about uncoordinated buying? Still, such action would have to come from Congress, not the Fed.
And (for now anyway), I doubt that Fannie and Freddie are going to go on a garbage mortgage gobbling spree. Just because there are new higher limits at Fannie and Freddie, that does not mean that Fannie and Freddie will be taking every loan in sight.”
SD Realtor
ParticipantSomeone can correct me but I am pretty sure that April 9th is the date that there will be a hearing to review Barney Franks proposal to permit the FHA to provide up to 300B in loan guarantees for refinancing. Basically in exchange for having lenders accept substantial write-down of principal, lenders would RECEIVE payment fom the proceeds of a new FHA loan if the restructured loan resulted in terms that the borrower can reasonably be expected to pay.
Let’s not forget that the government would be on the hook for these loans.
*******
I hate posting long quotes but this one from Doug Noland was good regarding last weeks shenanigans…
“As far as I’m concerned, much of the U.S. mortgage market was this week essentially Nationalized. I’ll take the dramatic narrowing in agency debt and MBS spreads as support for this view. Additional support arrived from comments from Mr. Lockhart, Mr. Paulson, and actions by the Federal Reserve. Having lived contently for years with the markets’ interpretation of the (grey-area) “implied” government backing of the GSEs, our policymakers are surely today satisfied with the inferred market acceptance of mortgage industry Nationalization. To be sure, the Fed’s Splashy “Sunday Night Special” bailout of Bear Stearns is rather trivial in both its implications and consequences when compared to Thursday’s Quiet Coup.
Let’s look at the Fed’s denial one more time: “The Federal Reserve is not involved in discussions with foreign central banks for coordinated buying of MBS (mortgage-backed securities).”Reading carefully, that statement is not a denial of having discussions (I presume they are). It is only a denial of “coordinated buying of MBS”. What about uncoordinated buying? Still, such action would have to come from Congress, not the Fed.
And (for now anyway), I doubt that Fannie and Freddie are going to go on a garbage mortgage gobbling spree. Just because there are new higher limits at Fannie and Freddie, that does not mean that Fannie and Freddie will be taking every loan in sight.”
SD Realtor
ParticipantAn interesting but simple answer. Many homes that are REO these days have a sign put out front and quasi-marketted before the lender has priced it. I know that sounds odd but it is pretty much the norm. For instance, the Carmel Valley home on Mesa Norte had a sign in front and was actually available for showings PRIOR to being put on the MLS because the price had not been set yet. This drums up interest for the home. In fact if you call Marlena (the realtor who posted the craigslist ad) you can ask her to see what she says. If there is a price already set I believe you will see the home on the MLS shortly. You actually need to send in a waiver to SDAR if you take a listing but do not market it on the MLS. Anyways this is more of the norm with REOs.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAn interesting but simple answer. Many homes that are REO these days have a sign put out front and quasi-marketted before the lender has priced it. I know that sounds odd but it is pretty much the norm. For instance, the Carmel Valley home on Mesa Norte had a sign in front and was actually available for showings PRIOR to being put on the MLS because the price had not been set yet. This drums up interest for the home. In fact if you call Marlena (the realtor who posted the craigslist ad) you can ask her to see what she says. If there is a price already set I believe you will see the home on the MLS shortly. You actually need to send in a waiver to SDAR if you take a listing but do not market it on the MLS. Anyways this is more of the norm with REOs.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAn interesting but simple answer. Many homes that are REO these days have a sign put out front and quasi-marketted before the lender has priced it. I know that sounds odd but it is pretty much the norm. For instance, the Carmel Valley home on Mesa Norte had a sign in front and was actually available for showings PRIOR to being put on the MLS because the price had not been set yet. This drums up interest for the home. In fact if you call Marlena (the realtor who posted the craigslist ad) you can ask her to see what she says. If there is a price already set I believe you will see the home on the MLS shortly. You actually need to send in a waiver to SDAR if you take a listing but do not market it on the MLS. Anyways this is more of the norm with REOs.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAn interesting but simple answer. Many homes that are REO these days have a sign put out front and quasi-marketted before the lender has priced it. I know that sounds odd but it is pretty much the norm. For instance, the Carmel Valley home on Mesa Norte had a sign in front and was actually available for showings PRIOR to being put on the MLS because the price had not been set yet. This drums up interest for the home. In fact if you call Marlena (the realtor who posted the craigslist ad) you can ask her to see what she says. If there is a price already set I believe you will see the home on the MLS shortly. You actually need to send in a waiver to SDAR if you take a listing but do not market it on the MLS. Anyways this is more of the norm with REOs.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAn interesting but simple answer. Many homes that are REO these days have a sign put out front and quasi-marketted before the lender has priced it. I know that sounds odd but it is pretty much the norm. For instance, the Carmel Valley home on Mesa Norte had a sign in front and was actually available for showings PRIOR to being put on the MLS because the price had not been set yet. This drums up interest for the home. In fact if you call Marlena (the realtor who posted the craigslist ad) you can ask her to see what she says. If there is a price already set I believe you will see the home on the MLS shortly. You actually need to send in a waiver to SDAR if you take a listing but do not market it on the MLS. Anyways this is more of the norm with REOs.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,
“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”
I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.
My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.
Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.
Then again, most likely I am all wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,
“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”
I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.
My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.
Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.
Then again, most likely I am all wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,
“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”
I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.
My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.
Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.
Then again, most likely I am all wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,
“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”
I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.
My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.
Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.
Then again, most likely I am all wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi DWCAP, just to clarify I said,
“Right now I am pretty darn surprised at some of the active/pending ratios in certain desireable areas.”
I have several clients who are banging heads against the walls because of the increased activity. Mira Mesa is pretty intriguing right now because we see that the REO or short sales that price most aggressively, (in that mid 300’s range) are indeed going pretty darn fast. While it is frustrating it will set the stage for a new set of comps which will be good in the long run.
My “GUESS” is that the numbers for April and MAYBE for March will not show the drastic volume (total sales) declines on a yoy basis that we have seen over the past 2 years. I only say that because we may see a glimpse that price declines have finally provided a bit more buying. Combine that with reasonable mortgage rates and a bit of a seasonal bump and again, it wouldn’t surprise me if my guess is correct. Now the median may and should still be lower.
Please don’t confuse this with me calling a bottom or anything like that. It is just one of those times in the cycle where patience will be needed. Go to the beach or watch some hoops or something like that. Hopefully by July things will be back on track.
Then again, most likely I am all wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantArraya it is really interesting. Chris S also issued similar warnings about gold a few weeks ago but of course was shouted down by many people here. The murder of commodities has indeed been swift and of course all of the people who love to talk about how much they have made off gold and such have been silent over the past week. Seems like they are slipping into the hold and hope mode. Other people I spoke to seemed to echo what you are insinuating which is, there is no chance that the Wall Street would let gold run and the 1000 point seemed to be the trigger for them to take action.
So the question is, do you really think they have enough power to continue to knock it down? Right now it is fascinating to see how much it has lost in just a few days. There is no logical reason for it to behave in such a manner. That is the problem though isn’t it? Logic has little to do with much of anything these days.
SD Realtor
ParticipantArraya it is really interesting. Chris S also issued similar warnings about gold a few weeks ago but of course was shouted down by many people here. The murder of commodities has indeed been swift and of course all of the people who love to talk about how much they have made off gold and such have been silent over the past week. Seems like they are slipping into the hold and hope mode. Other people I spoke to seemed to echo what you are insinuating which is, there is no chance that the Wall Street would let gold run and the 1000 point seemed to be the trigger for them to take action.
So the question is, do you really think they have enough power to continue to knock it down? Right now it is fascinating to see how much it has lost in just a few days. There is no logical reason for it to behave in such a manner. That is the problem though isn’t it? Logic has little to do with much of anything these days.
SD Realtor
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