[SD Realtor]

I am not being sarcastic and am above name calling. By the nature of all your posts you seem to be pretty expert in all of your endeavors and quite knowledgeable of San Diego. Even Ocean Beach!

I am saying you should go for it.

I see plenty of laughable advice on this board all the time.

Yes try calling the trustee and see what that gets you.

Give it a shot.

[SD Realtor]

“Other than making sure the lien is first position, looking for IRS liens, and eviction of any present occupants, what are the pitfalls of bidding on such a property at trustee auction”

None u should go for it!

[SD Realtor]

Cash flow has no boundaries, decent or otherwise. The pain threshold for management of properties, tenant quality personal and/or neighborhood safety varies for all of us. Cash flow calculations on paper rarely match reality as you move into more questionable areas unless you are intimately experienced in those neighborhoods.

[SD Realtor]

FLU I am not sure that I would give up. Getting a return is hard. What you are trying to do is simply repetitive and super frustrating. You just have to keep at it, you know the drill. Try to hit the listing agent directly, and all that crap… Also try to filter out the noise from others and their multiple success stories. That stuff gets old. You may want to also start to consider out of state investments. If you have relatives or friends anywhere then leverage them. You get the place, and kick them some coin for some prop management help every now and then. Other ideas are out there dude. Partner up with some other old school piggs, pool up cash and go to trustee sales… stuff like that man.

[SD Realtor]

FLU the amount of cash on the sidelines is orthogonal to the overall state of the economy. When we were crashing in 07 and 08 the amount of cash was staggering and today it is just as much if not more.

I think that as long as housing offers any decent return, and possible even no return at all, you will continue to see this sort of pressure. Then you throw in the ridiculously low interest rates and you qualify another big batch of buyers who normally could not come close to affording the payment. Mix in others who feel that housing is an excellent inflation hedge because we all know that someday we will be screwed to the wall because of our federal spending habits and you simply have a demand that will stay strong at many different price levels. I seriously doubt institutions are buying million dollar homes in CV however it does not surprise me in the least that you have seen a few cash offers at 7 figures.

Where the hell else will they get a return on the cash?

Personally I think people are idiots for investing cash in homes when the lending industry is giving away money but what the hell do I know and does it even matter?

Finally, we all have now seen that there will not be and will never be a tsunami of homes no matter how f-cked things become. The govt has shown they will let you live in a home for free and lenders will be bailed out. The precedence has been set right? (yet another reason to not offer cash)..

Never be surprised how much cash people have dude. It don’t matter what they look like, or what profession they are in. San Diego, the bay area, beautiful climates beat the hell out of anywhere in the country. That is why they all buy here. No matter how much they all brag about why they love other spots in the country.

[SD Realtor]

Scripps has been moving higher along with all of the I15 corridor. It is really tough right now. The trends will not reverse organically. Your hope right now is for interest rates to move upwards. Other then that continue to rent or bite the bullet.

[SD Realtor]

Damn it FLU…

[SD Realtor]

I think it is more complex and that different times and circumstances may or may not invalidate the effect of pricing from interest rates. I don’t have the data but I would guess that the percentage of monthly take home pay that housing costs back in the 80s when rates flew up was much lower then it would be today. That is because the 200k home in the mid 80s is now most likely the 500 or 600k home today. Not many ancillary fees like Mello Roos or HOA as well. I mean I do agree that in the past there may not have been exceptional effects on pricing due to rate hikes. I am not so sure that will be the case in the future but obviously there are alot of factors in play.

For the homebuyer of today and the past, I don’t think it is a bad thing, especially if you lock into a low rate. I don’t plan on selling anything I have bought so I will be quite happy paying 3 or 4% when rates are sky high. Until then I will save cash and when it happens, buy bonds.

[SD Realtor]

Look at the 10 year treasury yields from 79 to 84. Pretty staggering. No way we ever have wage growth that matches that. I think that in the past the two have moved in tandem because we were nowhere near as globalized as a society. Jobs were plentiful. Wage growth is important but so is quantity of quality jobs. I think that our country is in the middle of a fundamental shift. You know, the new normal, a lower quantity of quality jobs, etc. Things do not happen all at once as well. We have not witnessed a tight money supply policy like the early 80’s. When that tightening happened we were in no way shape or form in the economic quagmire we are in now with respect to employment, quantity of jobs, and of course debt. Insofar as San Diego is concerned, even with a high rate environment I don’t see it getting as clobbered as the national numbers will be. To many sincs and dincs as well as lots of money and jobs.

[SD Realtor]

That is the point, the game can go on a long time. How long? Who knows. However I do not see it tipping over soon.

[SD Realtor]

I understand your point AN. I agree entirely. I would say though that housing is a payment based purchase. You don’t care about the price (as long as prop tax is only 1%) but if you cannot crack that payment each month you are screwed.

A 600k 80/20 loan payment for a couple making 125k at 3.5% is one thing but quite different at 8%.

[SD Realtor]

Good point AN. Yes if we get a case of balanced inflation, that is, prices go up, wages go up, etc… then I agree with you.

As you know we have seen price inflation in food, water, energy etc without the corresponding wage inflation as well as a serious lack of quality job creation. (excluding government jobs of course). As I have been on substantial domestic travel the past few years, it is very evident just how unique San Diego is and how exceptional the real estate market is out here. You combine employment, climate, and the demand for certain school districts, and you get a situation where justification for depreciation cycles is very challenging.

[SD Realtor]

Disagree entirely. Markets will stay strong with minor corrections here and there. Nothing changes until the reality of our national insolvency comes to pass. It will start with the bond markets and go from there.

[SD Realtor]

I agree with the surfboard snark.

Keep dreaming about unemployment spikes and inventory coming back.

You have 1 hope. Interest rates, plain and simple.

[SD Realtor]

Here you go.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_spending_chart

These programs do exist.

************

Again, go to my first post in this thread. That it is not the actual spending, it is the entitlement attitude that has been so successfully harnessed and hammered into the population. It is not about how much hard work it will take to get out of the rut you are in. It is more about someone else must bear the responsibility of lifting you out of that rut. It is their fault and they must pay for it.

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