Sequestration and the housing market.

[zk]

Sequestration appears likely. Any guesses on how it’ll effect the housing market?

[SD Transplant]

ZK,

My guess is that we’ll have some much desired inventory available (may not be enough for the rich chinese yet enough to have something for our market)

[Anonymous]

It’s not going to help that’s for sure. The looming defense cuts will certainly damage San Diego housing market. If interest rates go up that will be a devastating double whammy.

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]It’s not going to help that’s for sure. The looming defense cuts will certainly damage San Diego housing market. If interest rates go up that will be a devastating double whammy.[/quote]

Agreed.

[patb]

sudden unemployment spikes, lots of potential inventory.

[Coronita]

.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Grab your surfboard dudes, the tsunami is coming…
WoooHooo !!!!!

/end snark

[sdduuuude]

What prompted you to say “Sequestration appears likely” ?

[SD Realtor]

I agree with the surfboard snark.

Keep dreaming about unemployment spikes and inventory coming back.

You have 1 hope. Interest rates, plain and simple.

[Coronita]

Defense cuts impact inventory?

Look around. Defense industry has already been hit in SD…For the past 3-4 years…There’s been consolidation to the east coast on lots of scales from BAE to SAIC to if NG and LM…. For the past 3-4 years.

Where was the inventory impact then??? That’s right zip/nada/zilch…

Side note…said folks that worked at defense companies for a longer time have relocated to east coast got a nice relocation bonus and bump in pay. Most kept their homes here as rental properties, being that they have been here for a longer time and can pull this off…A few said friends leased out ther CarmelV homes for $3000+/month and are completely cash flow+ and have enough to buy a new home on the east coast.

Regarding younger defense employees. My guess is they were never compensated decently in recent time to allow them to afford to purchase in san diego by defense salary/comp alone. because we all know defense companies pay crap (yeah, sorry that hurts, but it’s the truth)…Maybe if they quadruple downed on Zynga stock or something….Oh wait, never mind…

I had hoped I was wrong about this. But at this point I think one’s odds are better at increasing one’s income to afford the newer prices versus hoping for a meaningful correction.

[an]

[quote=SD Realtor]I agree with the surfboard snark.

Keep dreaming about unemployment spikes and inventory coming back.

You have 1 hope. Interest rates, plain and simple.[/quote]
I wouldn’t 100% count on interest rates either. It depends on why interest rates went up. If the reason is like the 70s, good luck trying to catch the nominal price.

[Coronita]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Real_Estate-Mira_Mesa-Homes_For_Sale-92126?srtcol=13

This year SFH is around $400kish… Last year it was in the $300k… You snooze, you lose…

And as it’s been pointed out on other threads…This isn’t going to help…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=qcom&ql=1

You have folks now that have a 4%+ income/money advantage over you now, on top of roughly a 15-20% advantage they had from last year….And if you’ve been idle in the equity markets for the past 3-4 months, there’s 6-8% advantage others who haven’t been idle have over you..Don’t believe me…Go put in offers, and see what sort of people are coming in with strong offers, besides the offers from institutions (aka Black Rock)…

You know the “I’ll do a full cash offer at asking” isn’t necessarily gonna work…There’s other people that do exactly the same thing.

The reason why I’m sort of out now, is it’s getting too rich for my blood..But I don’t deny there’s plenty of people with much more financial firepower than I have right now. And for them, things make perfect sense.

[The-Shoveler]

I am looking for a complete worldwide economic collapse and possibly the end of civilization as we know it.
Just kidding sort of,
But really there is no fear anymore, they just need the sucker money to come into the Market, then WHAM!!!
Out goes the rug..
Anyway that would get me just about even. (just kidding again).

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I am looking for a complete worldwide economic collapse and possibly the end of civilization as we know it.
Just kidding sort of,
But really there is no fear anymore, they just need the sucker money to come into the Market, then WHAM!!!
Out goes the rug..
Anyway that would get me just about even. (just kidding again).[/quote]

No you’re not.. But that’s ok… Sometimes I feel the same way..At least you’re honest about your feelings…

I’m more worried that I’m not really smarter than anyone else, so pulling the rug out so to speak means pulling the rug out of myself…

Personally, i’m hoping for a tropical storm frenzy that pushes crude oil prices up in the short term just on the speculation that the storm will have an impact. But that’s just me.

[SD Realtor]

Good point AN. Yes if we get a case of balanced inflation, that is, prices go up, wages go up, etc… then I agree with you.

As you know we have seen price inflation in food, water, energy etc without the corresponding wage inflation as well as a serious lack of quality job creation. (excluding government jobs of course). As I have been on substantial domestic travel the past few years, it is very evident just how unique San Diego is and how exceptional the real estate market is out here. You combine employment, climate, and the demand for certain school districts, and you get a situation where justification for depreciation cycles is very challenging.

[Author]

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