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SD Realtor
ParticipantMy friend Gordon Kane who owns the Poway Help U Sell bought a lot (or shall I see obtained a 99 year lease) south of Rosarita and is building a home there. I do not know if he paid cash for the new construction of got a construction loan for it. He is a super good guy and if you called him at the Poway Help U Sell office he would be more then happy to give you details. Powayseller knows him as well.
ParticipantWiley as a Realtor, first off I represent sellers and buyers. So your question is targetted for buyers correct? How can any Realtor in his right mind represent a buyer when the Realtor thinks that the market is in the tank and will continue to depreciate correct?
While none of us can fathom buying a house right now, there are buyers out there. If people are going to buy we can still help them out. I have a few buyers who are taking it very slow. We have submitted several low low lowball offers. They all know my feelings that the market will continue to depreciate but they are still moving forward. I give them my opinions, I show them the same data I look at, and those that work with me get good rebates. I also do NOT do any loans but whatever financing they use, I review thier loan, give my opinion, and make sure they understand what the payment will be now, and 5 years for now.
So in the end ALL the responsibility lies with the buyer. What is sad is that there are many agents out there who do not feel obligated to share their honest opinion about the market with all clients, specially the buyers.
ParticipantMy comment about don’t be surprised if there is a bump was more or less a defensive statement just in case the August numbers don’t represent the same trend that we have been seeing. In my mind I think August should follow suit however I think we will start to see an inventory reduction. However not because of a strong blip up in sales, moreover due to many people throwing in the towel…. so yeah it is part seasonal for people to punt at this time of year. So I expect over the next 4 months for the inventory tide to go out a bit….then the tsunami rolls in around February/March.
Again though I am not seeing a strong run in sales but I have seen a few more pendings. For instance two weeks ago for the infamous 3/2.5 condos in 92130 there were only 3 pendings. Today I checked and there were 8 or 9. However they were all at the lower end of the price ranges.
ParticipantExcellent post Contraman. I could not agree more and strive to live by that creed as well.
ParticipantHi JES… Dont be surprised if we see a tiny bump up in August in September. The effect would be caused by sellers who finally got it right and skinned prices and got into escrow. Also I could see inventory starting to drop as the spring/summer listings that didn’t sell gave up and decided to rent out or pack it in until that promising spring season begins. WIth that said I believe the yoy sales numbers for August should be down 10-20% from last August. Any let up in the numbers (at least IMO) is just an indian summer…
Tide is still rolling out.
Participantybc if you work in Carmel Valley then there is A TON of housing available in the entire I56 corridor. All of this housing will be of the cookie cutter variety. They are all nice homes, however they don’t carry the charm or original design of other parts of town. Still though, the Carmel Valley is smack in the middle of exceptional school districts so if you have kids you are in a great spot. My belief is that Carmel Valley will be hit pretty hard by the upcoming depreciation cycle due to the vast amount of housing in that area. You will just need to exercise patience. Even with that depreciation you may find it a bit on the expensive side. So there are other areas to the east that are not to far a commute for you. Scripps Ranch is nice and has an older and a newer component. Older Scripps has some nice homes with a bit more style, newer Scripps has the standard developments by all of the big builders, these are nice places as well. Further to the north is Rancho Penasquitos which is a little lower priced then Scripps. East of Penasquitos and North of Scripps is Poway which has a very good mix of both older and newer properties. You can find a very large mix of pricing in Poway. In Poway, Scripps, and Penasquitos you will be further east which would mandate air conditioning in the summer but they are nice places to live and not far from Carmel Valley. Scripps has good schools and Poway and Rancho Penasquitos are part of the Poway school district which is good as well. South of Carmel Valley is University City which has an older stock of homes but is less pricey then Carmel Valley and south of that is Clairemont which is less pricey then University City. North of Carmel Valley is Del Mar and Solana Beach. Nice places but pricey and they have good schools as well.
Participantanx it was listed on 1/5/06 by prudential at an original list price of 8.975 M. It went into escrow on 5/5/06 at 8.2M and closed escrow 6/2/06.
Participantybc your question is a bit to general. The best neighborhoods will vary for all of us due to taste and other priorities. The best neighborhood for a young single person who likes the bar scense is most likely Pacific Beach or an associated area. The best area for people with young children may be an area with excellent school districts. Still other people may want an area with large lots and spread out homes.
What is important to you? I have been in San Diego for 25 years now and I know all of the areas very well. Are you looking for a good school district? What part of town do you work in? Do you want a home or condo? Specify a bit more what is important to you and I bet you will get lots of information from the regulars here.
As for builders I am not as qualified as some of the other people here who have a great pulse on many of the new developments, especially in Carmel Valley.
ParticipantVery well stated!
ParticipantVery well stated!
ParticipantPS I do agree with your forecast entirely and am never angry with your posts! I hope you didn’t take our posts in the previous thread as anything more then a simple difference of opinion. I do feel that as a whole (all of zip codes lumped together here in SD) that 50% is reasonable. In my opinion some will be more then 50% and some less then that. If my statements came off as bullish that was not the intent.
ParticipantHard to believe the revised GDP is gonna go from the intial 2.5 to 3.0..
Something smells pretty fishy about that… Talk about bank error in your favor…
ParticipantPS lemme know the next time you are going to email guys like this. I can give you some additional hard stats and I would love to see his replies.
ParticipantSdduuuuude and PS I agree that the correlations to display the market decline can be made without this information. However, as I said, when I meet people and display information to them, these additional statistics are indeed very useful.
Show a the same picture to different people and you get different interpretations right? Sometimes I need to show a few different pictures to get the point across.
If I show someone the inventory and say, “look you have 18 months worth of inventory here.” that is a strong statement. If I show them that and go by the way alot of this inventory is people not getting it, people who have listed and expired, repriced, then relisted, then did it again… then the term chasing the market starts to make more sense to them.
So I guess my point is that this data may not be useful to any of us here as we have more then enough stats to correlate market performance.
Not all sales appointments I go to have that savy.
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