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SD Realtor
ParticipantSteve –
I can point you to several condo sales (or lack thereof) that are in the 20% depreciation from the peak. The depreciation is regional.
ParticipantThanks sdcellar!!! I must have went right past it…
ParticipantSome of the people I have been working with recently have not prepared the home to sell properly, basically ignoring my advice. They are also priced to high and IMO will not sell. I have told these clients over and over again what they need to do and how they need to price. The homes that were priced properly and spruced to show did indeed sell. The majority of these sellers simply have built up equity and are not what I would classify as motivated. Others are just well… I hate to say this… stupid…
Example… seller in Encanto… not a great neighborhood. Has a ton of equity and has his home priced about 10% to high. Still got an offer 25k below his low end… He didn’t wanna touch it. Mind you this is after 60 days of NO activity. He said that with that offer he couldn’t move to the Eastlake home he wants without pushing his mortgage up a few hundred dollars. He cannot fathom that the value of his home in Encanto will NEVER achieve a value level of that of Eastlake. Regardless of what the market does, Eastlake will always be a better place to live then Encanto. He seems to think that somehow he will get an appreciation rate in Encanto that will outperform Eastlake, then he will sell his Encanto home, buy in Eastlake and then realize an increased appreciation rate in Eastlake.
sdrealtor works in a more high end area while I am all over the county. The clients I have that lived in his neck of the woods indeed did prep thier homes much better and were more price competitive.
So your statement about alot of inventory being pure crap… Inventory is inventory right? I think there is pure crap regardless of the market conditions dont you? In good times the pure crap sells and in bad times it doesn’t but it is still inventory. I wouldn’t discount the crap now like you are implying because it cannot be discounted during good times… Maybe it could be argued that in good times the ratio of crap to good homes is even WORSE then in hard times!
I couldn’t tell you why Zip and MLS differ. I “believe” that like any other on line MLS provider Zip indeed receives all of the listings from the MLS itself. Now recall that the Sandicor MLS does have listings in shadow zips, Imperial and Riverside county etc… So the more in depth way to do it would be to go by zip codes only. Then throw out the shadow zip codes of the MLS.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPS –
I haven’t been posting as much but I have stated exactly what you posted. I see that demand is still out there and we have kind of hit an equilibrium that unfortunately will stall the deterioration. The market will need another kick before it rachets down again. I don’t see that kick being long term rates, so the only hope is for a massive jump in defaults. Again even this is pesky as the banks are not pricing as aggressively as I would have hoped.
As sdrealtor noted in his area he has seen an increase in pendings. I noted that as well several weeks back.
It is discouraging but I suppose it is part of the natural cycle.
SD Realtor
Participantarrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggg…. sorry about the duplicate post…
Participantsdr I could not agree more with you. I accompanied some clients to some of the new developlments last week as well. It seems to me that the builders combo of price reductions and slow release schedule has worked out well. I do not think they are in the same dire straights we presupposed them to be. I completely agree with a slower depreciation cycle. I predict about 7-8% next year in the negative direction.
We need a major catalyst to move pricing. Hopefully the loan resets will push pricing down. I think the developers have covered themselves and they are reaching thier new equilibrium. Resellers simply are digging in thier heels (at least ones I have been dealing with) so that leaves the real work to be done by those who are financially strapped. I believe the spring will give us a big fat inventory push but I also think the bulk of those who don’t sell will simply sit on thier property rather then yield.
Something big has to happen.
SD Realtor
December 11, 2006 at 11:46 PM in reply to: recorded sale while property currently in MLS (Carmel Valley)?? #41500ParticipantPer the earlier post on this thread, original sale from Pardee to xxx was on 12/21/05 and there was an interspousal deed recorded on that date as well. Then there was a quit claim deed recorded on 12/31/05. Then there was a recorded sale on 11/28/06 at the current price of over 1.4M.
One possible explanation is that the listing agent could have simply forgotten to update the MLS. Not likely but I have seen it happen.
NSR there it is not possible to do a search for buyer or sellers name in the MLS as principles.
December 10, 2006 at 5:39 PM in reply to: thinking buying eventually; any risk in entering 1 year lease now? #41430ParticipantProcrastinator I see no risk in renting. Even signing the 1 year lease is not a heavy risk. Your lease will expire right after (what I hope) will be a very sobering 2007 for homeowners who think 2006 was just an hitch in the market. I am renting just like you are thinking of renting. I also have a few rental properties and when one of my tenants had to break the lease last year I told them as long as I could find a new tenant that there would be no problem. Ran the ad on Craigslist and got it done with no problem.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI also agree with you doubledogdare. I have several clients who I have nothing but REO, Foreclosure, and short as keywords for thier searches. In all of these cases the pricing on these homes is still at a frustrating level. Additionally we see some VERY long market times for these properties as well… It is hard to be patient.
SD Realtor
December 10, 2006 at 5:31 PM in reply to: How can someone get loans on multiple houses at once? #41428ParticipantI do know of a client who owns several properties and she is purchasing two more REO properties that close next week. I do not do financing but know the mortgage broker. She is doing it above the board though. Her loans are NOT for primary residential, they are for income properties.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSaiine I would urge you to try to rent for at least another year if you can. So far condos have bore more of brunt in price declines then single family homes. I believe that trend will continue through this year at the very least. Also I don’t believe you we will experience any substantial rate hikes in the next year. As an experiment go to any mortgage calculator on line and and plot the difference in monthly payments for different rates, use .25% increments. I think that given how fragile the market is, if there are rate hikes, I believe they will be offset by price declines. Again, measure the risk factor. Are the odds higher or lower that the market will reverse itself and appreciate over the next year. IMO I bet on it going lower.
The hardest part about waiting is psychological. Many people have already started looking, searching the MLS, going out of weekends, etc… You don’t have to stop doing that, but you may want to do things like learn about foreclosures and/or other things that may enable you to take advantage of distressed sellers. Of course as others wrote in this thread… TRY TO SAVE STOCKPILE CASH.
SD Realtor
ParticipantLulu you bring up a pretty good point. I notice that alot of FSBO sales are in that same vein. Rather then discounting the price by the commission they are saving, they end up pricing the home equivalent to comps. I never really understood that.
I used to own a Help U Sell and I had alot of experiences like you mentioned. I own my own brokerage now but I do experience the same thing. I do save people money on commissions but it is frustrating to deal with sellers who just do not seem to get it. Those that do understand the importance of pricing and truly preparing thier home for a sale, generally do sell thier home even in a deteriorating market like this one. However the majority of sellers still feel entitled to make as much as thier neighbor did in 2004. It is quite frustrating.
SD Realtor
ParticipantLulu you bring up a pretty good point. I notice that alot of FSBO sales are in that same vein. Rather then discounting the price by the commission they are saving, they end up pricing the home equivalent to comps. I never really understood that.
I used to own a Help U Sell and I had alot of experiences like you mentioned. I own my own brokerage now but I do experience the same thing. I do save people money on commissions but it is frustrating to deal with sellers who just do not seem to get it. Those that do understand the importance of pricing and truly preparing thier home for a sale, generally do sell thier home even in a deteriorating market like this one. However the majority of sellers still feel entitled to make as much as thier neighbor did in 2004. It is quite frustrating.
SD Realtor
December 6, 2006 at 12:03 AM in reply to: Loved the house, hate the agent, do I have to use him? #41206ParticipantJust my opinion Kiki but I do not believe that Zip would chase it down in court.
Like I said, I think many a Realtor has stories about buyers who have scorched them. It is just part of the business. Many seasoned agents will not even waste time showing homes unless they have a buyers representation agreement signed to remedy this.
SD Realtor
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