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SD Realtor
ParticipantYou are not alone csr_sd. I am pretty much in the same boat. I have a career and a small business, my wife has two small businesses, we save as much as we can, yet we still have not been able to buy the home we want due to pricing. We are also saving as much as we can but it still seems like we are just as far behind the market as we were last year and it is super frustrating. I have submitted some lowball offers over the past year, and one very recently but none of them were accepted. All I can say is try to hang in there. I don’t think anyone will provide the spreadsheet you want because the numbers do not play out given the income you have stated above. There are however families that have two wage earners, where each of them pulls in 6 figure incomes AND they have money saved up for a nice downpayment. So for those families, it does pencil out much better.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAN got it right little lady. I think your home will sell according to how you have described it.
SD Realtor
Participantbinx nothing is wrong with offering 100k less then asking. All they can say is no. Ask you realtor to give you the stats of the community (Blackhorse). Include all actives, pendings, solds, expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns in the past 2 years. The fact of the matter is that condos have been hit harder then detached homes in this slowdown. The La Jolla market is strong but there has been depreciation there as well. Looking at the 5 actives that popped on the MLS in the complex ALL of them have been on the market an extensive amount of time. IMO I would come in more then 100k under asking, 200k on the higher end ones, and maybe 150k on the lower end ones. With that in mind, and seeing as there are NO pendings in the complex, and that the last sold was 11/21/06, I think they will trend back down some. Try to at least hold off until August and see if we get the long slow summer we had last year.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNSR you make a good point. When I do represent the buyer I do go ahead and look at the other sales in the neighborhood to see how they went, if they were foreclosures or shorts or REOs. I do not go that far back though, mostly in the past 6 months. Also it is not just the solds but you have to look at the actives, pendings, cancelleds, expireds…Also the type of home and location has bearing on things. In some cases the homes that people are buying are in new developments (from builders) or are very unique properties, (rural areas) so the search comes up empty.
Also whether or not you could sue is something that would be up to a lawyer. Unfortunately the CAR listing agreement becomes the formal contract when you list a home to sell. When you are a buyer there is a formal Buyer representation agreement in place but it certainly does not spell out the exact tasks that your Realtor will perform for you.
You definitely, to be safe, should ask your realtor to specifically do this search for you.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThanks for the compliment Perry. I used my sister in law at at Coldwell Banker for the first few properties I purchased and that got old. Then I bought a FSBO and neither the seller nor I used a Realtor. In retrospect I wish I would have but live and learn. Everything Exeunt said was true and it would seem somewhat self serving for me to argue the points. Most people have a low opinion of Realtors because of bad experiences which is unfortunate. It is what it is though. I do hope/think that the buyers and sellers I have worked with have had good experiences. Cannot say much more then that!
SD Realtor
ParticipantLots of good posts on this thread. For what it is worth my humble two cents is along the lines of what Perry and others highlighted. Secular trends occur over many many years and are filled with cyclical runs. I definitely do not think that this, or the low point of summer 2006 were the bottom of this secular trend. By the same token this cyclical run may last a month, a year, who knows? Again though, the secular trend will take several years to run it’s course… So if you have time to wait, then wait. I think there were/are alot of people out there who mistakenly thought that okay, the market tumbled hard in 06 and will tumble hard in 07. In fact I was one of them. I don’t see that now but maybe come August things will be different.
Life is all about adjustments right?
SD Realtor
ParticipantGuys –
Please read my post again, I am not saying anything other then there was heavy traffic at these specific locations. I am not saying this is a bounce, nor am I saying go buy now or don’t go buy now. It is very easy to sit in front of a computer and type based on what you read or your own emotions. It is another thing to be out in the field with buyers or representing sellers, or going to sales offices. I always enjoy Perry’s posts cuz that cat visits more San Diego developments then the any of us here. It is quite obvious foreclosure rates will rise. However all of the posters who were crowing about 25k levels of inventory this spring are auspiciously silent. Personally I have no clue where things are going to go. I want and hope they will go down. A smart person, who posts on this site, told me the market will move with or without you. This is true in all markets, especially real estate. You can say don’t fall for this crap but this is not crap. This is happening. I “think” this is a cyclical rally, (perhaps in response to people lowering prices, or to people waiting out last years decline) and will continue through spring and hopefully peter out as summer sets in. We’ll see…
SD Realtor
ParticipantRanjan –
Two listings that I have sold so far in 07 have been in the 92114 zip code and 92119 respectively. 92114 went at list price with a 3% credit back to the buyer, 92119 went at about 5% below list price. Both were not the greatest homes in the world. We will open escrow on another 92114 home that will close at 1% below list with another 3% credit. Again this home is not in the greatest part of town. I think that the part of town you are looking in will help dictate your strategy. One client I have has submitted 4 offers in the past 3 weeks, all of them well below list price, at least 10% and NONE of the Sellers even responded with a counter. Personally I submitted a lowball in Scripps 2 weeks back that was only a 2% below list price and they did not respond. So where you are looking really will dictate the strategy. If you are looking at a unique type of property that may have been on the market for a long long time then you have more leverage. If you are looking for a family home in a good school district then your leverage may not be so great. Again, let me know the zips you are looking for and I can be more helpful.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI would agree, the buyer does lose leverage. I have just deleted about 4 long paragraphs about why I don’t believe this is a good idea. I read them and deleted them. There is a good analogy someone told me and it is not coming to me because it is late. Your buyers agent should know what you want, and be 100% committed to your well being. Not someone you met at a sellers open house or someone you called because you saw the sign. Ask yourself this… You saw a home, now would that agent support you if you want to lowball the listing? Just my opinion.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Bobby –
I know Scripps very well… as I am currently living there and looking to buy there as well if I can get a good deal. Stonebridge is very nice but yes the MR and HOA are kind of scorching… Personally we like old Scripps as it suits our needs more but that is just a personal choice and has no bearing on your question. Obviously any newer (within the past several years) develpment you select will be subject to MR and HOA. The larger the homes/lots the more expensive they will be…
Currently resale wise there are 5 active listings on the MLS for Stonebridge and of course the ton of other new stuff.
As a builder McMillin is good. In fact I am renting in a McMillin home as we speak, (built about 30 years ago) and I like the home alot. It is definitely a that 70 shows split level wonder but it works great for us…
I am sure you already know this. If you need more info on Scripps Ranch just post and I will try to answer you in a timely manner.
you SD Realtor
ParticipantLittle Lady that is great news for your friend and that bodes well for you. I was showing homes today and I am becoming more and more convinced that this spring will outperform last spring. When you interview Realtors be wary for any gaurantees and such. I took a listing the other day from someone who was “gauranteed” that the house would sell in a fixed timeframe. When that did not happen the Realtor told her that the gaurantee was subject to a pricing recommendation that in her opinion was outlandish.
Again, when you price (or your Realtor) prices your home, make sure is priced based on comps that are accurate AND is priced commensurate with your need to sell quickly. Obviously the more eager (or desperate) you are to sell then the more aggressive your pricing should be. Not so if you are just testing things.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCounselor I agree with your points.
I do see alot of buyers out there who are buying with a wary eye and a sound strategy. I also do not believe there will be a catastrophe with regards to defaults. I have posted before that I believe there will be some form of bailout if that is even needed. I think the lending industry will cope by coming up with refinance mechanisms that will be in line with the “more stringent guidelines” and that will enable distressed buyers to postpone the inevitable. Again, the lending industry doesn’t need to stop foreclosures altogether, they really just need to smooth them out over a longer period of time to avoid crashing the market. Personally I think they will be able to do this. Finally I have not heard any commentary about who will supposedly enforce these guidelines. Until they are law I don’t see any change at all.
Perry/Josh – I think that the quality of life is or can be just as good renting as if you own the home HOWEVER you are more subject to the luck of the draw. My first landlord said no way would he sell…he changed his mind. Bad luck I guess. Owning lots of pets doesn’t help, it certainly dimishes the rental stock you get to choose from. So it is pretty much to each his own. For me, it has gotten old, for many or most others on the forum it is great and no problems at all…
ParticipantBob and Firsttimebuyer congratulations on your purchases and for the courage to post. Bob I wonder if the place you are in escrow on is one that I had been looking at….My wife and I had been eyeing a home right near Jerabak on Avenida Magnifica and it just recently went into escrow…
Anyways I think paranoid called it very well. Every single secular cycle be it the stock market or real estate is composed of cyclical trends within it. I think that is what we are experiencing and will continue to for at least a few months. However secular trends last several years so lets see what happens by summer…
Perry your posts made alot of sense…however… I think that there are more potential buyers out there then we all think. I have been renting for awhile now and am moving to my 3rd home because the owner is selling. It really is getting old and our quality of life had suffered because of it. I had submitted a lowball offer to the Scripps property I mentioned above but it was not taken. While I believe the market will continue to display a secular trend over the next several years, my strategy was similar to Bob and Firsttime, put down a large downpayment, finance the rest in a safe mortgage that I can live with. Yes the market may depreciate but I am looking for a home that will serve me for the long run. However the improvement in the quality of life would be worth it. I am not saying renting is a poor quality of life. I think it varies with the individual. Having 2 toddlers, a few dogs, cats, turtles and a live in mother in law, I can say that renting blows. I am really tired of moving and I want to live in a home where I can do things to it to make it mine. I am getting to the point where I think I am making my family suffer because of my own stubborness and that may not be fair.
So yes I will be buying before the market hits bottom and I am sure alot of those who do have the patience to wait a few years will do very well. Again I believe the secular downturn will continue but I very much understand the decisions made by Bob and Firsttime.
ParticipantI agree wontanamo. The developers in CV have pretty much stopped negotiating altogether. Traffic has been brisk over there. I think that a tightening of credit standards will help the market revert to sanity. However I personally do not believe that this will happen in the near term. I believe it will take quite awhile for this to happen.
SD Realtor
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