4S Ranch Update

[an]

I was also at Evergreen in 4S Ranch last Saturday. There was a steady flow of people. I talked to the sales lady and they had a new phase release that day and they have 2 plan 1 left. I had the price sheet form the last release and it seems like plan 3 price stayed the same. However, plan 1 now is 10-20k cheaper with bigger lot.

[CAwireman]

SD R,

Thanks for the temperature check. Too bad people are reading things into it that aren’t there.

Ocrenter – your comments are well appreciated. From $1.1MM to $700K – $800K is a huge change, and could easily rally sales.

Its good to hear the sentiments of those currently in the market for a home.

But, I’ll continue to wait on the sidelines for some number of years. Thanks all.

[no_such_reality]

Actually, there a lot of good info here. As SD R and AN point out, traffic appears up at 4S, as OC renter points out, 4S courtesy of the builder has already peeled off ~25% from their pricing.

The bottom may be coming up faster than we’d thought. The resales in 4S will get tanked by new sales. More house, more yard, and 25% less money. Ouch, glad I’m not competing with that to sell my place.

[PerryChase]

In case you guys haven’t seen Rich’s chart yet, the last townturn lasted 6 years. I wouldn’t buy anything until we’re 5 years into a buyers’ market.

January Housing Data

As OCrenter pointed out, prices are down… and developers are undercutting resales. You don’t see that if you’re reading about market trends. Look at resale listings over time, compare them to builders’s new units and you’ll see that definite down trend.

[ibjames]

Are you sure you guys weren’t just observing each other going in and out? 😀

[no_such_reality]

It lasted six years because prices where less distorted and hence more sticky on the down side. It took about four or five of those years to get price back to reality. Another year or two for the people to realize that prices actually swung to the point were it was cheaper buying that renting.

This time, things will be different. In 15 years, we’ll be able to look back and see the clear trend down, but with prices being so over extended and volatile, our dead cat bounces may be rather long mini-rallies extending the duration out a decade or we may plummet like a rock with the builders leading the way with new homes and REOs being the hammer driving resales down.

We know today’s price, we know inflation from peak until now, we have an idea of today’s income, but more concrete numbers may be 3, 6, or 12 months away. We can guess at inflation until next January, incomes is more in the air,

[gn]

>> a year ago you can’t get a 3,500 sqft home in 4S Ranch for less than $1 million

If this is the price in early 2006, how much did
a 3,500 sf home in 4S Ranch went for at the peak
of the market in San Diego ?

Thanks.

[lulu]

I was Del Sur a couple of weeks ago and the place was packed! I’m also at Open Houses every weekend faithfully as my husband and I have been searching for the right home (and great deal!) for quite some time now. We’re personally starting to get a little scared – the new home developments are busy again, the open houses are busy again, homes seem to be selling much faster.
I was like many on this site several months back and very much in agreement that seller’s needed to face the truth and accept the the bubble had burst. As much as I’d love to see prices continue to fall, I’m just not convinced anymore.
Perhaps its time for those of us on the sidelines to face that the market may have actually bottomed?
I know many of you won’t like this post, but hey, I’m a realist, that’s what brought me to this site months ago.

[gn]

Yes, it’s true that the builders are selling well.
Now, is it because:

1. The demand for homes is high.

2. Or, this is a reflection of the “pricing strategy”. That is, even in a market where there are few buyers, if you lower the price aggressively, you’ll be able to sell.

IMO, it’s reason #2. For every new home that is
sold, a re-sale is NOT sold. The builders are simply
stealing sales away from the re-sale market.

The problems with all those homes owned by speculators
using exotic mortgages haven’t gone away. In other words,
what’s good for the builders is bad for the market.

This is very bad news for the speculators. Which means
we are definitely not at the bottom.

[JWM in SD]

1 Trillion or so in resets coming in 07. No, it has not even come close to reaching a bottom. The subprimes are collapsing at the rate of a couple per week…20 since December alone. This will strangle the money flow to the FBs. Don’t fall for the hype people. We are turning the corner as we speak.

[blahblahblah]

1 Trillion or so in resets coming in 07. No, it has not even come close to reaching a bottom. The subprimes are collapsing at the rate of a couple per week…20 since December alone.

Thinking about the carnage on its way to the SD housing market brings to mind that great scene from “Ghostbusters”:

Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.

Mayor: What do you mean, “biblical”?

Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath-of-God type stuff.

Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.

Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling.

Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness. Earthquakes, volcanoes…

Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave.

Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together – mass hysteria.

I can hardly wait. I love a good disaster film as much as the next guy. And we’ve all got front-row seats!

[SD Realtor]

Lots of good posts on this thread. For what it is worth my humble two cents is along the lines of what Perry and others highlighted. Secular trends occur over many many years and are filled with cyclical runs. I definitely do not think that this, or the low point of summer 2006 were the bottom of this secular trend. By the same token this cyclical run may last a month, a year, who knows? Again though, the secular trend will take several years to run it’s course… So if you have time to wait, then wait. I think there were/are alot of people out there who mistakenly thought that okay, the market tumbled hard in 06 and will tumble hard in 07. In fact I was one of them. I don’t see that now but maybe come August things will be different.

Life is all about adjustments right?

SD Realtor

[an]

To me, this feels like a classic dead cat bounce. When you follow the information too closely, you’ll think these dead cat bounces are the bottom. Only hind site is 20/20. We’ll just have to wait and see but I expect the spring might bounce some more, recovering some of last fall’s loses. Then this fall, it’ll fall even further and resume the decline.

[PD]

Any price increases are temporary. My husband bought JDSU when it seemed to be a “good deal” after it started to tank in 2000. We weren’t the only suckers…er… knife catchers.

[Raybyrnes]

Coast to Coast. Friend is a Managing Director for a Century 21 overseeeing 200 agents in the New York Area. She said that November and December were very slow but January has been an extremely busy month. She is working in the Long Island area wwith home values ranging from 500 K to 3 million+. Could be a dead cat bounce but very interesting to hear this is happing on the coasts.

[Author]

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