Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Pemelzia –
I definitely see a correlation about schoolsneighborhoods and activity. As a parent I am absolutely putting that as a priority (within a neighborhood I hope to afford someday)…
92130 – 166/55
92014 – 81/21
92177 – 234/77
91911 – 201/64
92056 – 177/54Also my intent was to definitely display that the more desireable regions are holding up better. I think that is going to be excasserbated as the decline continues. I think in these areas that are more established you tend to see sellers with more equity and less risky financing. The exception would be the areas that had recent development over the past several years and attracted lots of people who should not have bought in the first place. Places like 92130 and 4S I believe are going to see more fallout due to NOD/NOT activity as loan resets go down.
The active/pending ratios were to illustrate a spring rally in certain spots. This “rally” is VERY MUCH relative to the dry months of 06. Again, I believe it will be short lived, and into the summer we should see the ratios crap out. Also yes yes for sure, the better ratios will be limited to certain zips….
ParticipantCould be… I would definitely agree with you that something is definitely fishy here… I just cannot believe the buyer would be that much of a boob in a market like this.
SD Realtor
ParticipantGreek it would be a fair assessment for sure.
Jim is a quality guy as I actually had some buyers I brought to an open house he had. I very much agree with Jims assessment on pretty much everything. The numbers I produced above were for detached homes only.
Again though, the data I noted was for the active/pending ratios. I believe our number of sales will continue to match the 20-30% decline on a monthly basis that we started to see in June/July of 06.
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell Juice I am up as well… Looking at resumes for a receptionist for my wifes business. Just ran across one from a Realtor…no joke!
Okay so yeah this is a bizarre sale. I saw all the expired and cancelled listings for this home. The sale closed but was not an MLS sale. Maybe the seller found a sap and did a FSBO and the sap never did any research on the home. The loan was originated by New Century for 568k…
SD Realtor
ParticipantAgain, I am not arguing that the market is in decline, nor am I encouraging anyone to buy. People buy for many different reasons. I would also 100% agree that the easy money is very much responsible for the insane runup. I just think things will happen in a more drawn out manner and I feel it will vary with region and housing type as the market weeds out people who should have never been there in the first place.
ParticipantI am sorry but I do not agree.
I do feel that yes we are in a secular downtrend. However I am seeing active to pending ratios that are better then they have been for most all of 2006. I feel our secular trend will occur over a few years and we will have cyclical rallies in the long trend. I also believe condos are going to continue to get hit hard and lower income neighborhoods where most buyers are in need of subprime financial vehicles will also suffer more then other neighborhoods.
Don’t get me wrong as I am a buyer looking for a home. I feel that the profiles of buyers is alot different then it used to be. We have seen the exit of speculators, and now we will see the exit of buyers who should not be in the market.
Also note that in many many neighborhoods prices already have declined to 2003/2004 levels based on zip code and housing type.
As always I could very well be wrong.
I guess not many people are recalling the 25000 home inventory level we were all talking about last year. I am not saying it will not happen. I am saying it will not happen this year. Maybe in 2008.
While my posting is speculative, the number of homes for sale in San Diego county is at 15.8k and my previous post shows active/pending ratios for some zip codes.
I think it will be a slow simmer rather then a fast meltdown.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThat is the longest escrow I have ever seen!
SD Realtor
ParticipantSDC no worries at all… and yes I WAS TERRIFIED to plunk so much coin down on what would be a depreciating asset.
Perry Perry Perry… I am a landlord myself and the last thing I am gonna do is lie to my own landlord. Yes most people would do that but I am a pretty big believer in karma….”It is a little to late for the landlord to due anything about it”… well it all depends on the landlord correct?
I don’t mean to nitpick but….yes for the “average” renter I would agree with you… I am not average though.
Anyways guys again, this is my case and mine only, yes I did/do realize imminent depreciation AND putting my hard earned money ALL IN! Yet, I also was ready to commit to a 15 year occupancy based on the schools, size of my family, and financing terms. Yes Perry you are right the buydown is nothing but a prepayment but buydowns make sense if you are going to occupy longer then 48 months.
So here is the moral… If you can afford it, if it is long term, if you know what you are getting yourself into, if it is something that you feel will be better for yourself, your family, your pets, and even your live in mother in law, if you acknowledge that renting would most likely save you money over buying, and you are okay with all of that…as I was/am then well… find the house and buy it.
The answer for most all people would be no to many of the if’s above.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJJG something is really wierd. The listing history report says it went active on 1/4/05 and went into escrow on 2/15/05. Peculiar. I think the agent just entered the wrong dates on the year… I think… anyways just remember, the Prudential site, Coldwell Banker, Realtor.com, Zip, anywhere all get the listings directly from the MLS.
ParticipantJohnAlt –
Definitely no offense taken at all, no worries at all.
SDC, to say that 5.5% on the mortgage is not realistic is not really true at all. I am sure you noted what the 10 year treasury is doing, and as I said I would have been buying down the loan.
Also SDC my rent is 2500 a month not 2200 as you used in your calculations.
Have any of you guys tried to find a rental in Scripps that would accept 2 dogs and 3 cats?
*****
Anyways again guys, by the postings shown I think it si clear that the benefits of renting versus buying vary with each individual. Factors such as thier income, how much down they have, kids, pets, school districts, and how much they do not want to have to deal with a landlord factor into the equation.
DEFINITELY if it is only dollars and cents I could not agree more.
For sure for sure for sure…if you don’t have the income, if you don’t have the downpayment… definitely don’t do it.
please donSD Realtor
ParticipantSDC – The loan amount was for 400k at a rate of 5.5% as I would have bought the rate down. That is 2271 on a standard 30 year amortized loan including principal. I was toying with the idea of a 10 year fixed interest only to hold on to more cash. The price of about 650k is more or less correct.
Perry – I agree with your points which is what I was trying to say as well. That every post, every person who inquires about rent verses buy, should maybe provide more of us with reasons behind the request, and as you guys have pointed out, financing plans.
I would say this WITHOUT A DOUBT. DO NOT BUY if you do not have a significant downpayment. With that, I TOTALLY agree but that is simply because you should never ever buy what you cannot afford.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCarmelValleyResident –
I feel your pain… If you guys are struggling with an 1800 payment I would not recommend buying. Obviously your tax guy is pointing out the benefits of the interest deduction if you purchase a home. However if you do not have a big chunk of money saved for a downpayment, and you purchase a home, you most likely will be setting yourself up for a potential problem down the road. Whatever you do, do NOT ever buy something you cannot afford. Do you have anything saved up for a downpayment? Would you consider a less expensive neighborhood then CV? Agreed with the previous post, keep your eyes open on Craigslist for a cheaper alternative with regards to renting. That preschool fee of 900 a month is the tough nut to crack. As a parent I know there are few/no alternatives there.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPerry and FSD –
For the home I wanted to buy, putting 20% down and financing the rest using a fixed rate loan amortized over 30 years, including property taxes, insurance, the differenct was not even close to being as much as 50% more then renting. I pay 2500 a month now in rent. The loan would have cost 2200 a month, plus another 600 a month for prop tax. Through in another 100 a month for insurance. Now yes I would get income from the downpayment if I didn’t buy which I am getting now. However the money needs to be liquid in case I find something I want AND that income is taxed.
If you want I can go into much more details on the numbers.
ParticipantJohnAlt91941 –
I have moved 3 times within 18 months and I am renting. That seriously disrupts my life and puts undue stress on my family. As a renter I have no control when my landlord suddenly decides he wants to sell his house which has happened twice. Nor do I have the freedom to go ahead and do whatever I want to the house, whenever I want. As an owner of several dogs and cats my rental selections are limited. As a parent of two small children who will be in elementary school soon, I want them to grow up in a stable environment, in a school that I choose, not that is dictated by availability of rental stock. I can go on and on and counter the financial argument. I choose not to rent in many of th zip codes in this city because of the schools there or the neighborhoods themselves.
Once again, it is quite easy to pontificate the rental verses buying argument strictly from a dollars and cents point of view. However, it is all to easy to see that not everyone considers other elements in the equation. I cannot convince you of them if you haven’t experienced them. It is like single people talking about marriage, or people who have never had children talking about raising kids.
So yeah with all the dollars at stake from only that point of view it is stupid. From making the quality of life better for your family (if you have the money) and are not going to be moving it may not be so stupid.
Again, I am not advocating that anyone buy. I am advocating that those who like to hammer others that are considering buying, maybe don’t have all the facts before they paint the picture that what they say is gospel.
-
AuthorPosts
