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April 26, 2007 at 10:00 AM in reply to: **RING THE BELL** Offically over 20,000 for sale in San Diego County!!! #51202
SD Realtor
ParticipantCritter – I have been lucky… so far the escrows I have had this spring have been solid. We had a liting that closed escrow today on a 100% financed subprime buyer that got 3% back AND another 10k went to a remediation company. It was all above board in the contract.
In order to get hard numbers for you one could do a string search in the MLS for stuff like BOM or back on market or something like that but it is tedious and not scientific. Alternately one could compare the MT verses AMT fields in the listing, (MT – market time, AMT is adjusted market time) and a substantial difference in these fields would indicate a home was active, then went pending, then went active againg indicating a defaulted escrow. Again though you don’t know why they defaulted. So… the answer is that it is speculative. Yes I do believe more homes are falling out of escrow but no I cannot give numbers or reasons why. I do believe standards are tightening.
SD Realtor
April 26, 2007 at 9:54 AM in reply to: **RING THE BELL** Offically over 20,000 for sale in San Diego County!!! #51200ParticipantAnaut – I think that yeah these are a bit to far north for me. My wife is a HUGE Poway fan (certain parts of it) but again I do alot of work in Sorrento Valley and I don’t relish that drive. So she is cool on Poway, I am not. For some reason she is not a fan of Sabre Springs or CM and personally I see more downside risk in those areas…. Scripps is pushing the envelope commute wise. Sabre Springs is to tight for me… As you know there are some pockets in both those areas that do have larger lots, specially the homes that back to hillsides, so that is pretty cool.
I think that those areas will get hit harder then old Scripps. As you know there are foreclosures popping up all over 92128 and although it is older then Carmel Valley, it is not as …. matured as old Scripps, La Costa etc… So I think you could see some pretty smoking deals in CM and SS and that it will fall apart faster and in a more substantial manner.
April 26, 2007 at 9:15 AM in reply to: **RING THE BELL** Offically over 20,000 for sale in San Diego County!!! #51191Participantcapeman – you got that right brother!
tememcula guy – very well said. The heat is coming strong from the wife about buying and has been for awhile. I submitted another lowball offer on a home on Sunset Ridge and was denied and then the home went into escrow…wifey almost took a hatchet to me… Actually our criteria is good schools, large yard/lot, and a “somewhat” central location. We are priced out of Solana Beach, Del Mar, older Carmel Valley/Del Mar Heights area and like you said, always will be unless I want to finance something I couldn’t afford. Wife hates UC,I don’t want to do the north county coastal drive, so Scripps is kind of a compromise that is close but still out of our (well my pricing) reach.
Your point is well said and what I try to say alot, that the downturn will hit different areas in varying manners. Others thing it will be a forest fire across the board. I tend to think it will be pretty tough in many areas but the description you put out there for certain places will cushion them so that it will be less dramatic.
SD Realtor
April 26, 2007 at 9:06 AM in reply to: Tech is BACK!….Housing downfall might be limited in San Diego afterall. #51188ParticipantI direct an engineering team for a large telecom company as well as perform real estate services. In the past few years the options have dried up mostly because of the new reporting guidelines for accounting. In years past yes many engineers did very well with stock options. Also many engineers in the field with over 8 years of experience have lots of stockpiled options however the net worth of those options may not be much if they were granted after 2000 unless they were reissued. Lots of employees at Broadcom had that happen.
What you said is pretty true 4plex. In fact at our company we do not have any annual merit increase anymore. We get a 6 month “bonus” now based on a formula that is tied into stock performance, production milestones, and design wins. In order to fund this “plan” we had no merit increase in the previous calendar year. The first payout last November was great, about 4% of our annual salary, the next payout this May will be less, about 3%. So in one year that is 7% which is great. Except we got no increase last year. The option grants have been meager at best. Also note, the base salary does NOT increase unless you get a promotion now.
SD Realtor
April 26, 2007 at 8:59 AM in reply to: 4S Ranch – (3000+sq/ft update) Pienza / Evergreen / Maybeck #51187ParticipantI agree with Manmon –
The builders are always much more aggressive in pricing nad always will be. They have the margin to do so and most important they are unattached emotionally to the home and unencumbered financially. This fact will never ever change. I also agree that the MR and HOA fees are a big turnoff. Not to mention the possibility of a new private transfer tax that I posted about earlier. The builders make money no matter what. Resellers pretty much do not get it until it is to late.
Regarding the sales prices I absolutely believe those to be true. The current incentives at most 4s Ranch releases are identical across the board, 20k incentives IF AND ONLY IF you use the in house lender. People don’t believe that you can trade off the incentives for cash or reduced purchase price it does not happen. I am not saying you can’t try to negotiate the price down, I am saying that incentives do not mark down the sales price. There is not even close to a dollar for dollar value on incentives.
As much as most people posting don’t want to believe it, the builders will always scale back, slow down phasing, and price enough to sell. I do believe it will slow down in the summer and fall like last year.
SD Realtor
April 25, 2007 at 10:05 PM in reply to: **RING THE BELL** Offically over 20,000 for sale in San Diego County!!! #51156ParticipantI went to the search page for combo, typed in alsdc and hit statistics and it showed 16,738 actives. I did not include shadow zips. 4091 properties pending.
I maintain what I have said all along, desireable properties in desireable areas are moving. Here is an example where I currently rent and want to live in Scripps. I want old Scripps though, not Stonebridge, and not anything in New Scripps. However doing a search on 92131 I see a total of 85 active listings. However only 13 of those active listings were built before 1985.
By the way, as you noted SDA the pending ratio is telling. Right now there are 52 pendings in 92131.
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This is by NO WAY representative of the overall market. Other neighborhoods have serious problems. Still other more desireable neighborhoods do not.
SD Realtor
April 25, 2007 at 6:38 PM in reply to: Taxes RE-ASSESSED or NOT after buying BELOW assessed value? #51137ParticipantAlso (sdr correct me if I am wrong) but the further benefit of passing the home of the kids is that when the event that caused the house to transfer occurs, the basis is recalculated to the value of the home on that date of that event. So the children live in a house with the stepped up basis but pay the original property tax. nice…
SD Realtor
April 25, 2007 at 6:33 PM in reply to: Taxes RE-ASSESSED or NOT after buying BELOW assessed value? #51136ParticipantHi Chance –
First off congratulations on the purchase! Yes at closing you did pay from 4/19=7/1 based on the originally assessed value of 853k. Yes you will get this back. Let’s work in reverse a little bit, that makes the explanation easier. As the market ran up, people bought homes that were more expensive then the previous purchase. So a home that was originally purchased at 600k then resold at 800k. At closing the buyer would pay the difference (like you did chance) but at the 600k assessment. Then a few weeks later the buyer would receive a friendly supplemental tax bill from the assessor that would cover the difference for that time period (in your case from 4/19 to 7/1) of the 600k to 800k assessed value. From then on all future tax is based on the 800k assessment.
Now to your case. It will work in the inverse manner. Several weeks from now you will receive a check (at least you should) from the county assessor. Your home will be assessed at the new value. You should not have to do anything. If you are very concerned you can call the county assessors office. I would wait a few weeks but if you want you can call them now.
SD Realtor
April 25, 2007 at 2:20 PM in reply to: Taxes RE-ASSESSED or NOT after buying BELOW assessed value? #51120ParticipantNew value.
There is a ripe discussion though about what the buyer will see on his closing statement for the property tax up to the next period but I don’t feel like typing that all out right now.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSDowner good for you with no neg am and that you are paying off the HELOC… So the biggest variables appear to be the future interest rates and your length of owning the home.
The hard part here is that these two variables will shape the decision. My advice is to run run run numbers. Set up several different scenarios of staying x number of years and then establish different interest rates and see where you land. Some thoughts….
You may want to simply not refi and bang down the heloc with the money you save. If in the future you decide to refi you have some equity to cope with the depreciation of the home in case you decide to stay in it and refi at loan reset time.
Also the pessimist in me sees no way that the fed funds rate can not go up in the future. That pessimist has a friend named Joe recession who thinks a recession will bring rates down again… sorry I am not much help on that issue… Perry and Asianautica have insightful posts on that…
So… I feel bad for giving you a non concrete answer at this point. It is really a number crunching exercise using different variables on the rates.
SD Realtor
ParticipantQuestion… On that 4.3% fixed rate you have had since 04, was there any neg am going on? Also yes if I were you I would simply bite the bullet and grab the quickest 30 year fixed rate that you can. If you are planning on keeping the home for more then 4 years then buy down the rate as much as you can as well. The other possibility is to run the numbers. See how much you would save paying the lower rate for two more years, then assume at loan reset that you will max out the new rate. You did not say what your ARM indexes to (Libor, Prime etc…) Make sure the cap is the cap that you pay, not the cap on the index rate because the loan will index to the rate plus some margin.
Anyways you should be able to run the numbers to see where the crossover point is. At some point down the road it will have made sense to refi but it may be several years depending on your balance.
The big risk is the depreciation as it will be unlikely your home will appraise more in the future then it does today.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTo be honest Perry no I have not listed a short sale yet. Perhaps sdr or Jim has though.
My guess is that the lender pretty much makes the call and instructs the realtor 100%. I have represented buyers for REOs. In that process the lender had a broker that handled the negotiation but the portfolio manager for the lender called the shots. We tried negotiating and they played hardball. We got a good deal but only because they priced the home to sell very aggressively. I do know that the short sale process is more involved and it “appears” to me that the hardest part about it is proving the hardship case to the lender from the sellers standpoint.
That is a speculative statement by me.
SD Realtor
Participantwinterpapa1 please post more!
Thanks for that information as it does explain alot. Just to clarify, once a trustee sale does happen, all other notes held in lower positions are wiped out correct? So I assume if the property becomes REO then the lender must only pay the property taxes and of course any existing default on property taxes owed.
SD Realtor
ParticipantChecked on only one of them, unit 436. Realist has nothing recorded since 04. I checked the MLS active, pending, sold, expired, cancelled, withdrawns for Beech attached homes back to 1/1/06 and couldn’t find it either.
Not sure what to tell ya OCR.
SD Realtor
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