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SD Realtor
ParticipantWithout getting into to much detail, yes Cielo is one of the lesser expensive areas. Currently there are 208 active listings and 28 pendings in 92067. There was a sale on 7761 Calle Amancer that closed in November of 06 for 1.8M even. Couldnt see if there were any credits. In the 1148 B7 mapcode which is where Amancer is there are currently 3 actives, no pendings and there were 2 solds since 8/1/06.
Avenida Amatista is in 1148 J7 and it is the least expensive of a total of 4 active listings in that mapcode. The other 3 active listings are considerably larger homes. There is one sold at 1.85M that closed on 4/16/07 on Camino De La Dora, 4535 sqft. Also the neighbor 17835 Avenida Amatista expired on 12/29/06 but that was a monster, 6234 sq ft for 3.4M… no buyers.
I have not had any listings in Cielo. I am a bit more familiar with Fairbanks Ranch and have had a listing there. So yes these two are relatively reasonably priced against the current Active homes.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThere is merit in what you say. I have heard similar comments from my advisors and from others that agree. I guess we will see… There is a certain futures trader who has posted every now and then here who has been quite astute in his predictions of what the market will do and has done in the short term.
SD Realtor
ParticipantConcho – Why did you say he was speculating with an interest only loan? I know many people who have bought and were not speculating and they used an interest only loan because they clearly thought they could make a better return then the interest rate. If you can make a better rate then it makes perfect sense doesn’t it?
SD Realtor
Participantibjames I have heard you. Why don’t you consider a condo if you want to stay in PB? Much better pricing. Just try to sit tight for awhile and let the pricing come to you. I think the PB condo market will crash much harder and faster then the detached home market.
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell DeNiro, maybe you will be able to buy your unit back for 75k less then what you just sold it for another few years!
SD Realtor
May 1, 2007 at 6:17 PM in reply to: Pros and cons of buying new from builder in Carmel Valley #51575ParticipantArny –
From your post, before the Pros/Cons you asked about the short and long term investment questions. Obviously in the short term the investment is not good. As for the long term that is tougher to answer but if you hold it long enough you will do good.
I think what you are really looking for is, fundamentally do new developments appreciate faster then established housing. If so by how much. This is not an easy question to answer because it will vary with development, location, etc… Also does the appreciation difference overcome the holding costs, (HOA/MR)… I would urge you to run the numbers and see what it would take….
The other factors are really personal taste. Most people here pound on those that like 4S or similar developments. Personally I am not into the new stuff and will purchase a home that is older but that is just my taste. I like a large lot and if the home on the lot isn’t what I want I can always change that. In general you will ALWAYS get better deals from the builders then the resellers because the builders have plenty of margin and the original owners paid that premium when they bought from the builder so they can never ever catch the builders, especially in a down market.
So this post is not really trying to push you one way or the other. I think you find valid pros and cons for either choice but if you are looking at new developments it seems like you kind of have made up your mind. Now just choose the development you like the best.
ParticipantR DeNiro you made the right move. Unless you wanted to sit in the condo for a few years, I think you did okay.
In general I do not agree with the forecast at all. I do not see what factors will stimulate a reversal of the market in the mid 2008 timeframe like these guys predict. Even if they used the previous 2 historical downtrends they need 6 years to shake out… There are to many wildcards here to make such a prediction and I just don’t see how they can overlook them.
I would like to see a more definitive explanation on how the inventory will be reduced, (what sort of uptick in demand will reduce the supply) and how the rise in foreclosures will be not only remedied, but how that will not affect pricing of non distressed property. Furthermore I would like them to explain how the tighter lending standards will not prohibit demand. (Although to be honest with everyone here I think that these supposed tighter lending standards will be enforced meekly at best)
Again, it would be nice if these studies and forecasts had more concrete reasoning behind the conclusions. To simply tell me that okay the depreciation will end in 08 or 09 just doesn’t cut it. Tell me why it will end and show me the factors that will reverse the trend.
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt cannot hurt to try for at least 5% less then you would offer if you were going for conventional financing. If the seller is not in trouble, and is not that motivated then there is not much you can do about it.
The true reality of the situation would be to put yourself in the sellers shoes. Say you are selling a home for 500k and one offer comes in at 485k (20% down) and another at 460k all cash. What would you do if you were in no rush, but you had already been on the market for 75 days or so? The 20% down guy had a 700 score, and a steady job… You see what I am saying? It would be hard to pass up that 25k for the all cash offer. Basically both buyers have the same contingency period duration. Yes the all cash offer doesn’t have a loan contingency and will most likely waive the appraisal but still… Now the more shaky the financing gets the more likely you are to get the seller to bite… However I am sure you know all of this.
The motivation of the seller really has alot to do with it. So maybe start with an assumption that the all cash offer can be discounted by a few % and try it, (it never hurts to try) and if they don’t take it, raise the offer a bit or walk and hit them up a couple weeks later.
So I guess the main point is that yes having all cash is great and helps you out. However the desperation factor of the seller carries much more weight at least in this market because financing is still notoriously easy to get… Now if interest rates are a few points higher… that is another story. Credit is still way to easy for cash to command a great discount. Let’s see if that holds in a few years.
SD Realtor
Participantheheheh – Funny post temecula… well the wife doesn’t like 4s and the cookie cutter types of homes… doesn’t like beemers… drives the toyota truck instead… and we already have dogs… any advice for me?
SD Realtor
ParticipantThe lender holds all the cards… I forgot the posters name that commented on a thread last week who worked in the loss mitigation group for a loan servicing organization. He was really helpful.
My guess is as follows. First off it depends on how far down the seller is in the hole. If the home is already NOD status and a date has been set for the trustee sale, the lender would probably not negotiate much and simply follow through with the foreclosure unless the short sale amount was significantly more then the opening bid.
I think that the psychology of these darn lenders still needs to get battered some more. The fact that we are seeing short sales on the market for months and months indicates these lenders are still out in space. So all things being equal a cash offer will be much more attractive to a lender then a financed offer. However I don’t think I can answer your question which is, “What sort of premium is my cash offer worth?” 5% better then a financed offer? 10% better? Not sure…I gave up trying to figure out these lenders long ago…
SD Realtor
ParticipantWell said temecula –
I agree that this market was fueled by extreme easy money and ran up faster then any we have ever had. However I do believe it will take a few years to unwind for reasons we have talked about… over and over again. I guess we will see…
Realtor
April 27, 2007 at 11:31 PM in reply to: Last month SD RE Prices up 2.1% sales up 34% . . . is market firming???? #51346ParticipantHang in there schizo… you and I are in the same boat, I am waiting to buy as well… but no we are not at or near the bottom…. Long term trends do not go straight down they have small cyclical rallies on the way down. Spring is always a seasonal rally point for real estate. Don’t focus on hitting the bottom unless you are willing to wait a few years. If you cannot wait that long, (and I know for my family I will not be able to) at least try to hang in there until later in the summer.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYou do not want to live on Ingraham.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCritter –
Yes a cash deal is always faster because there is no financing involved. Buyer does not need to have a loan application, no underwriting, no loan approval… etc…. no loan contingency best of all.
In a short sale the lender has final approval no matter what sort of financing or cash the buyer is using because the lender is eating the difference between the loan amount and the sale price.
SD Realtor
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