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SD Realtor
ParticipantHiggy –
There are two parks we used to frequent when I lived there, one was the park that sits above Lopez Canyon which is on the south side of Calle Cristobal. The park is adjacent to condos that overlook Lopez Canyon. On the south side of Calle Crisobal there are other condos that overlook the Penasquitos preserve, (western end of it). Now about 2 miles to the east there is another park which is newer, I forgot the name but it is basically where Camino Ruiz turns into Calle Cristobal. I had seen times at night at the Lopez Canyon park where there were some pretty shady looking characters. They didn’t seem to be homeless to me, but more like your typical teens/twenty something hoods. Now one time I did get a call from my wife who was at the newer park and it was pretty empty and she called me because she saw a fairly large group of what she thought to be migrants or illegals jumping the fence to come into the park from the canyon.
That said, we lived there and never had any problems at all. If anything, I think the homeless would be aliens living in the canyons as opposed to the destitute homeless…
Just my guess…
SD Realtor
ParticipantHiggy –
There are two parks we used to frequent when I lived there, one was the park that sits above Lopez Canyon which is on the south side of Calle Cristobal. The park is adjacent to condos that overlook Lopez Canyon. On the south side of Calle Crisobal there are other condos that overlook the Penasquitos preserve, (western end of it). Now about 2 miles to the east there is another park which is newer, I forgot the name but it is basically where Camino Ruiz turns into Calle Cristobal. I had seen times at night at the Lopez Canyon park where there were some pretty shady looking characters. They didn’t seem to be homeless to me, but more like your typical teens/twenty something hoods. Now one time I did get a call from my wife who was at the newer park and it was pretty empty and she called me because she saw a fairly large group of what she thought to be migrants or illegals jumping the fence to come into the park from the canyon.
That said, we lived there and never had any problems at all. If anything, I think the homeless would be aliens living in the canyons as opposed to the destitute homeless…
Just my guess…
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah today was a serious jump. Moves on the bond market are REALLY important, especially for long term mortgage rates as well as Wall Street. I am a moron with how they affect Wall Street but with respect to real estate, it is easy to see.
A standard barometer or shall I say approximator (if there is such a term) is to take the 10 year yield and add about 1.25 to it to get an approximate value for a conforming 30 year fixed rate mortgage. What is important to note is that all basic fixed rate mortgages, and even the fixed portion of ARMs and other hybrids, are really based on this (and/or) the 30 year yield index. So as correctly pointed out earlier in the thread, this yield has been rising since about mid March, (I believe) as I am to lazy to look at a chart for the moment.
I believe that this can be the most probable catalyst to accelerate a more substantial decline in real estate pricing on top of all the other factors pushing the market down. It hits and hurts every sector in real estate, those in distress wishing to refinance, those new buyers have purchasing power reduced, it cuts across the entire strata. So yes if this bond market selloff continues, it is my belief that we will see a corresponding chunk down in sales and pricing rather then the slow and steady run down which I have been assuming. Right now it crossed 5, so how high it goes will determine the carnage.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah today was a serious jump. Moves on the bond market are REALLY important, especially for long term mortgage rates as well as Wall Street. I am a moron with how they affect Wall Street but with respect to real estate, it is easy to see.
A standard barometer or shall I say approximator (if there is such a term) is to take the 10 year yield and add about 1.25 to it to get an approximate value for a conforming 30 year fixed rate mortgage. What is important to note is that all basic fixed rate mortgages, and even the fixed portion of ARMs and other hybrids, are really based on this (and/or) the 30 year yield index. So as correctly pointed out earlier in the thread, this yield has been rising since about mid March, (I believe) as I am to lazy to look at a chart for the moment.
I believe that this can be the most probable catalyst to accelerate a more substantial decline in real estate pricing on top of all the other factors pushing the market down. It hits and hurts every sector in real estate, those in distress wishing to refinance, those new buyers have purchasing power reduced, it cuts across the entire strata. So yes if this bond market selloff continues, it is my belief that we will see a corresponding chunk down in sales and pricing rather then the slow and steady run down which I have been assuming. Right now it crossed 5, so how high it goes will determine the carnage.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI have no idea if it has teeth. In the past few weeks I have had 2 closings and the buyers were financing 100% AND they got credit back for closing costs. Both loans closed. One of them was very sketchy at the end but it did close.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI have no idea if it has teeth. In the past few weeks I have had 2 closings and the buyers were financing 100% AND they got credit back for closing costs. Both loans closed. One of them was very sketchy at the end but it did close.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYep the Buckwheat home we rented was in Park Village. Actually getting to RB from Scripps is easy street. Getting to UCSD blows. I commute from Scripps to Sorrento Valley and I whine about it… Tell your friend who is looking to hang in there. He is right, people are not budging off the list prices much… I submitted on an offer in Scripps about 9% below list last week and the seller told me to pound sand…
All the neighborhoods I was talking about are references for rentals, not just to buy in…
Also I would not sweat the traffic flow you are worrying about for the Wateridge condos. Yeah during rush hour there is a clog up there are ways around it.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYep the Buckwheat home we rented was in Park Village. Actually getting to RB from Scripps is easy street. Getting to UCSD blows. I commute from Scripps to Sorrento Valley and I whine about it… Tell your friend who is looking to hang in there. He is right, people are not budging off the list prices much… I submitted on an offer in Scripps about 9% below list last week and the seller told me to pound sand…
All the neighborhoods I was talking about are references for rentals, not just to buy in…
Also I would not sweat the traffic flow you are worrying about for the Wateridge condos. Yeah during rush hour there is a clog up there are ways around it.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCaly good for you for not buying…Hang in there since you don’t HAVE to buy, then don’t buy. I agree with AN that there are some rentals that you may be able to find in the 2K and slightly above range. I know it is super frustrating. Last year we rented a 4 bedroom home on Buckwheat in Rancho Penasquitos for 2200….The Wateridge Circle area is nice, I am literally looking at it outside the window where I am sitting at right now. It is also very close to UCSD as opposed to living in Rancho Penasquitos. We paid 2500 for the home on Cheryl Ridge but that was a larger home in a bit nicer neighborhood. It was a 4/3.
AN – The homes I was referring to were the ones that have the backyard literally on Calle Cristobal. Most of those tracts just to the north of Calle Cristobal have a main street that runs parallel to Calle Cristobal with feeder streets that are cul de sacs to the canyon. I went to a listing appt a few weeks back on one of the homes where the backyard backed to Calle Cristobal (it was north of Calle Cristobal but right on the street that ran parallel to it) and it was noticeable even in the home. Even just across the street it was much better.
In the Cheryl Ridge home we were on a cul de sac street so there was no problema at all. If the window was open yeah you could catch some noise but it was okay.
In the Scripps Ranch home we are renting now it is blissfully quiet but I have about a 20 minute longer commute… doh!
SD Realtor
ParticipantCaly good for you for not buying…Hang in there since you don’t HAVE to buy, then don’t buy. I agree with AN that there are some rentals that you may be able to find in the 2K and slightly above range. I know it is super frustrating. Last year we rented a 4 bedroom home on Buckwheat in Rancho Penasquitos for 2200….The Wateridge Circle area is nice, I am literally looking at it outside the window where I am sitting at right now. It is also very close to UCSD as opposed to living in Rancho Penasquitos. We paid 2500 for the home on Cheryl Ridge but that was a larger home in a bit nicer neighborhood. It was a 4/3.
AN – The homes I was referring to were the ones that have the backyard literally on Calle Cristobal. Most of those tracts just to the north of Calle Cristobal have a main street that runs parallel to Calle Cristobal with feeder streets that are cul de sacs to the canyon. I went to a listing appt a few weeks back on one of the homes where the backyard backed to Calle Cristobal (it was north of Calle Cristobal but right on the street that ran parallel to it) and it was noticeable even in the home. Even just across the street it was much better.
In the Cheryl Ridge home we were on a cul de sac street so there was no problema at all. If the window was open yeah you could catch some noise but it was okay.
In the Scripps Ranch home we are renting now it is blissfully quiet but I have about a 20 minute longer commute… doh!
SD Realtor
ParticipantJust a comment, AN probably knows Mira Mesa better then anyone on this post including me. AN are you sure you didn’t work for Eric Delgado?
I agree that there is a pretty big difference between the homes divided by Calle Cristobal. By the same token, the homes north of Calle Cristobal BUT have backyards to Calle Cristobal to me are hard to swallow due to the noise.
I will gather as much comp information as I can for you guys based on the areas that Jimmy posted earlier.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJust a comment, AN probably knows Mira Mesa better then anyone on this post including me. AN are you sure you didn’t work for Eric Delgado?
I agree that there is a pretty big difference between the homes divided by Calle Cristobal. By the same token, the homes north of Calle Cristobal BUT have backyards to Calle Cristobal to me are hard to swallow due to the noise.
I will gather as much comp information as I can for you guys based on the areas that Jimmy posted earlier.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAgreed with your point AN however my assumption was that this person does have rainy day money. The original post said that the 400k that the person sunk into his new home was all from the sale of his previous home.
Absolutely agreed that if there is no rainy day money then no this shouldn’t be done. Again, I made that assumption based on what was written in the post. Conversely the guy could/should put the 2k that he is saving each month, away or invest it conservatively as well.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAgreed with your point AN however my assumption was that this person does have rainy day money. The original post said that the 400k that the person sunk into his new home was all from the sale of his previous home.
Absolutely agreed that if there is no rainy day money then no this shouldn’t be done. Again, I made that assumption based on what was written in the post. Conversely the guy could/should put the 2k that he is saving each month, away or invest it conservatively as well.
SD Realtor
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