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SD Realtor
ParticipantI would not base my purchase on % of price decline. If I had the time, I would wait until the sales volume reached a consistent level. To me that would show that the market reached an equilibrium that would signal most of the price risk was unwound. I would also look at the rate of inventory coming on the market and things like foreclosure rates.
Once more, things like the price median are pretty useless to me.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNeeta –
I would not limit your selections just because someone has a price range. Agents work for and represent sellers. The case I told you about was a single case and I don’t believe is representative of the norm. If things go according to the plan advocated/hoped for by most of this board including myself, two years from now should be a pretty darn good time for buyers. You should be able to drive a good deal depending on location and housing type.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNeeta –
I would not limit your selections just because someone has a price range. Agents work for and represent sellers. The case I told you about was a single case and I don’t believe is representative of the norm. If things go according to the plan advocated/hoped for by most of this board including myself, two years from now should be a pretty darn good time for buyers. You should be able to drive a good deal depending on location and housing type.
SD Realtor
ParticipantzRob congrats at Biogen. I know a few people there. You will be pretty darn close to work if you choose to live there. Lucera is also a complex I know well. Some of the units actually look out into Rose Canyon which is nice. Lucera is a large conversion (from apartments) back in 2004 I believe. Nothing really noteworthy about the complex. Since the conversion is fairly recent all of the units have the granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.
Also being on the top floor is good as well.
Now just a note about Lucera… I know people who bought in Lucera at the conversion in 2004 and they are now underwater by about 15%. So in this particular complex pricing is 15% BELOW 2004 pricing. As for concerns about renting… I don’t really have to many. Lucera is not quite as jam packed as some of the other complexes in the area. It is middle of the road quality wise, there are some beater complexes and some nicer ones in the area. They will be making a trolley stop I think, right below Lucera as the trolley runs through Rose Canyon but that is still off in the future. You may want to try to negotiate with the landlord and tell him you found some other nice places to see if you can drive him down to 1600-1700 but he may not bend that much. Right now is a good time to negotiate cuz there is not quite as much demand there. Once August rolls around it will crowd up more as UCSD students come back for school.
Like I said, check Craigslist to see if you are in the ballpark comparitively.
SD Realtor
ParticipantzRob congrats at Biogen. I know a few people there. You will be pretty darn close to work if you choose to live there. Lucera is also a complex I know well. Some of the units actually look out into Rose Canyon which is nice. Lucera is a large conversion (from apartments) back in 2004 I believe. Nothing really noteworthy about the complex. Since the conversion is fairly recent all of the units have the granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.
Also being on the top floor is good as well.
Now just a note about Lucera… I know people who bought in Lucera at the conversion in 2004 and they are now underwater by about 15%. So in this particular complex pricing is 15% BELOW 2004 pricing. As for concerns about renting… I don’t really have to many. Lucera is not quite as jam packed as some of the other complexes in the area. It is middle of the road quality wise, there are some beater complexes and some nicer ones in the area. They will be making a trolley stop I think, right below Lucera as the trolley runs through Rose Canyon but that is still off in the future. You may want to try to negotiate with the landlord and tell him you found some other nice places to see if you can drive him down to 1600-1700 but he may not bend that much. Right now is a good time to negotiate cuz there is not quite as much demand there. Once August rolls around it will crowd up more as UCSD students come back for school.
Like I said, check Craigslist to see if you are in the ballpark comparitively.
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt was initiated by Prudential. Basically it is a tool to try to get people into your home who actually would not be able to afford the home but the thought is that you get them in, they fall in love with it, and then they stretch to buy it.
Quick story… There is a listing in RB right now in a price range. It is a 60k price range, on the low end it is mid/highish 600’s and the high end is close to mid 700’s. So my client who is a cash buyer came in with a lowball offer. They countered at the high end. My client REALLY wanted the home so he came back right in the middle of the price range. They countered 5k less then their high end. This only served to my client off and he walked. I had a long discussion with the agent, who yes is a Prudential agent. I asked her why they listed a price range is there was no intention to take it. Her answer was, well you know how it is, this is how Prudential prices homes. I informed her that I am currently in escrow with two other homes and Prudential is on the other end. In both those cases we were at or under the price range, so please don’t try to rationalize that sort of behavior. Furthermore this particular listing has been riding the market down for the past 2 years as it has been listed a few times.
The bottom line is that the seller is simply not that motivated. The seller does have alot of equity in the home and the sellers behavior is being backed reenforced by this agents poor behavior.
I am not endorsing or not endorsing value range pricing. My advice would be if you are a seller and are going to offer the range pricing, don’t act like a ***hole if you get a lowball offer or an offer at the low end of your range. I have another listing in Vista and the sellers initially had me price it at a certain range based ont he data I gave them. We got 2 immediate offers right at the low end and they couldn’t negotiate a deal. I asked them why they had me price it their if they were not willing to negotiate at that offer and they told me that they had a friend who told them to work in that manner. I told them to reprice to something that they would accept so that they would not everyone off and they did.
(Note, Rus and others, this post is not intended to be a manipulative or shill post…trying not to add slants, just posting the facts… if you guys want I will delete it.)
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt was initiated by Prudential. Basically it is a tool to try to get people into your home who actually would not be able to afford the home but the thought is that you get them in, they fall in love with it, and then they stretch to buy it.
Quick story… There is a listing in RB right now in a price range. It is a 60k price range, on the low end it is mid/highish 600’s and the high end is close to mid 700’s. So my client who is a cash buyer came in with a lowball offer. They countered at the high end. My client REALLY wanted the home so he came back right in the middle of the price range. They countered 5k less then their high end. This only served to my client off and he walked. I had a long discussion with the agent, who yes is a Prudential agent. I asked her why they listed a price range is there was no intention to take it. Her answer was, well you know how it is, this is how Prudential prices homes. I informed her that I am currently in escrow with two other homes and Prudential is on the other end. In both those cases we were at or under the price range, so please don’t try to rationalize that sort of behavior. Furthermore this particular listing has been riding the market down for the past 2 years as it has been listed a few times.
The bottom line is that the seller is simply not that motivated. The seller does have alot of equity in the home and the sellers behavior is being backed reenforced by this agents poor behavior.
I am not endorsing or not endorsing value range pricing. My advice would be if you are a seller and are going to offer the range pricing, don’t act like a ***hole if you get a lowball offer or an offer at the low end of your range. I have another listing in Vista and the sellers initially had me price it at a certain range based ont he data I gave them. We got 2 immediate offers right at the low end and they couldn’t negotiate a deal. I asked them why they had me price it their if they were not willing to negotiate at that offer and they told me that they had a friend who told them to work in that manner. I told them to reprice to something that they would accept so that they would not everyone off and they did.
(Note, Rus and others, this post is not intended to be a manipulative or shill post…trying not to add slants, just posting the facts… if you guys want I will delete it.)
SD Realtor
ParticipantzRob –
rent in UTC for awhile. It will be super close to work and get to learn about the different areas of San Diego. UTC is super generic will no character. It consists of a large shopping mall surrounded by subdivision after subdivision of inimiums. There is also a large amount of commercial building around the area. UCSD is a adjacent to the west. The best thing about UTC is that it is about as central as you can get in the county. So rent there for a spell… get to know the area, and then rent somewhere else after you find a good fit for the lifestyle you lead. If you can delay buying for a few years, I would recommend to wait instead of buying in 6 month.
San Diego is not a cheap place to live… however your first winter here will give you a chance to compare our climate to the Michigan climate. Finally if you want, just go to Craigslist San Diego and look for rentals in UTC or University City to compare against the price you have. I think you will be able to do a little bit better then 1800 but not alot better. What complex is the condo in? How many SF?
SD Realtor
ParticipantzRob –
rent in UTC for awhile. It will be super close to work and get to learn about the different areas of San Diego. UTC is super generic will no character. It consists of a large shopping mall surrounded by subdivision after subdivision of inimiums. There is also a large amount of commercial building around the area. UCSD is a adjacent to the west. The best thing about UTC is that it is about as central as you can get in the county. So rent there for a spell… get to know the area, and then rent somewhere else after you find a good fit for the lifestyle you lead. If you can delay buying for a few years, I would recommend to wait instead of buying in 6 month.
San Diego is not a cheap place to live… however your first winter here will give you a chance to compare our climate to the Michigan climate. Finally if you want, just go to Craigslist San Diego and look for rentals in UTC or University City to compare against the price you have. I think you will be able to do a little bit better then 1800 but not alot better. What complex is the condo in? How many SF?
SD Realtor
June 23, 2007 at 10:43 PM in reply to: San Diego among 5 cities positioned to bounce back the fastest… #61666ParticipantMyito, I cannot speak for others on this board but my discomfort about articles and surveys of this nature is the fact that they don’t give any concrete reasoning about why the turnaround will happen. At least your post makes an attempt to do that. I don’t really agree with your post because people who retire look for income and in general I think there are much better income generators for retired people then real estate.
So when I read these sorts of articles I wonder what assumptions are they making to back their data… Do they believe the lending climate will be different? Personally I don’t envision more lax lending standards, do you? Do they feel that there will be substantial job/income growth? Hmmm I don’t really see that either. Are foreclosures going to slow down? Will there be a sudden surge in demand or drop in inventory? Just where do they see the root cause of this growth?
Anyways, this is why I don’t agree with the prediction. I need to see the justification for the rebound and growth. Besides, these same articles a year ago claimed 2006 was supposed to be a minor correction.
SD Realtor
June 23, 2007 at 10:43 PM in reply to: San Diego among 5 cities positioned to bounce back the fastest… #61706ParticipantMyito, I cannot speak for others on this board but my discomfort about articles and surveys of this nature is the fact that they don’t give any concrete reasoning about why the turnaround will happen. At least your post makes an attempt to do that. I don’t really agree with your post because people who retire look for income and in general I think there are much better income generators for retired people then real estate.
So when I read these sorts of articles I wonder what assumptions are they making to back their data… Do they believe the lending climate will be different? Personally I don’t envision more lax lending standards, do you? Do they feel that there will be substantial job/income growth? Hmmm I don’t really see that either. Are foreclosures going to slow down? Will there be a sudden surge in demand or drop in inventory? Just where do they see the root cause of this growth?
Anyways, this is why I don’t agree with the prediction. I need to see the justification for the rebound and growth. Besides, these same articles a year ago claimed 2006 was supposed to be a minor correction.
SD Realtor
Participanthope you are correct. I should have been more clear, dribbling them out and pricing them to sell. Not dribbling them out and then have them sit on the market a long time.
Another thing that would be interesting would be some data that would present how many loans that have reset have been rewritten with different terms.
That would be very interesting to see.
SD Realtor
Participanthope you are correct. I should have been more clear, dribbling them out and pricing them to sell. Not dribbling them out and then have them sit on the market a long time.
Another thing that would be interesting would be some data that would present how many loans that have reset have been rewritten with different terms.
That would be very interesting to see.
SD Realtor
Participantnsr and patient renter –
I am not saying I disagree with the analysis but I do want to add my concerns. For one thing, why hold the asset, why not dribble them or at least get rid of a them a few at a time. Why would lenders hold ALL of them when they will be acquiring more and more of them at a faster rate?
Also by holding them then who is paying the interest on the bonds that have been issued?
We also saw that large auction in May where “supposedly” some of the properties did go at pretty low prices. Although I am not so sure if that indeed is true.
So… yeah nsr I “think” you are right… but I still think that the lenders would indeed start to try to move a small fraction of the properties while holding most of them…
UNLESS
Now to patient renters point. I have always been stressing out about what you brought up… the sheer size of the parties who DONT want the housing market to crash. Think about it, all the lenders, the banks, Wall Street, the federal government…. the sheer amount of power and money that has a vested interest in propping up the market or at least forstalling the crash and making it a prolonged stall over many years… this is what has always worried me the most. Patient renter your example was just one way that it could happen…kind of an indirect bailout by FNMA…
Now I don’t want to get political (aka known as the knell for any Realtor) but tell me how happy Hillary would be to promise to save all those poor middle class homeowners who are about to lose their homes. Are you kidding me? (don’t confuse that statement for an endorsement of the current administration because it is not) It is just an example.
Sorry for rambling… there is just alot of money and power that I am sure will be lobbied to try to prop things up.
SD Realtor
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