[SD Realtor]

No I kind of think they will be in the same boat. My only caviot would be this. If there are segments of a particular zip code that have substantial equity then I feel they will simply ride the storm out rather then sell. Or they will put the home on the market to sell at a higher price then what the market is demanding and it won’t sell and they will not care.

Scripps, especially new Scripps, to me is just as vulnerable as any of the areas mentioned. Old Scripps “may” fare better, but only because more people in old Scripps have higher equity and will simply be stubborn and not give in to the market. However those that do have to sell, even in Old Scripps will succumb to price at whatever the market will demand. They may luck out though because of a lower supply in that micro market. This is all very speculative on my part and make no mistake I am not saying the immunity or protection will be substantial. I think this is true for other areas especially in north county that have mixes of older more established homeowners with lots of equity and newer subdivisions that may have future distressed homeowners.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Deleted I just found out the answer to my question..

[SD Realtor]

Deleted I just found out the answer to my question..

[SD Realtor]

gn –

Carmel Mtn is a nice area, fairly generic, good schools. The way the depreciation cycle will continue, IMO is that the first outlying areas and less desireable housing will get hit the hardest and continue to get whacked. We have definitely seen this and it is continuing. We have also seen the “nice” areas get hit to. These nice areas also have plenty of people who bought using risky financing vehicles thus they are going to pay in the end as well. They may be able to hold out longer because they are employed but they will eventually fail and be forced to sell as well. We have already seen price drops in nicer areas. Finally, yes this is CM and CM is nice, but it is pretty generic right? All the subdivisions are built out and have pretty standard designs. The best thing about CM is the school district for sure. So I am not saying anything bad about CM, I just think it will depreciate, or shall I say continue to depreciate.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

gn –

Carmel Mtn is a nice area, fairly generic, good schools. The way the depreciation cycle will continue, IMO is that the first outlying areas and less desireable housing will get hit the hardest and continue to get whacked. We have definitely seen this and it is continuing. We have also seen the “nice” areas get hit to. These nice areas also have plenty of people who bought using risky financing vehicles thus they are going to pay in the end as well. They may be able to hold out longer because they are employed but they will eventually fail and be forced to sell as well. We have already seen price drops in nicer areas. Finally, yes this is CM and CM is nice, but it is pretty generic right? All the subdivisions are built out and have pretty standard designs. The best thing about CM is the school district for sure. So I am not saying anything bad about CM, I just think it will depreciate, or shall I say continue to depreciate.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

rankandfile no worries as that was the response I expected from him.

Over the past week I had found out alot of the information I needed directly from the HOA. They were very helpful. It looks like I found a showstopper as these clients each have a car and so does their son. The HOA stopped granting variances for permanent parking in the guest parking areas. Although you can park in front of the garages it is pretty thin and you cannot extend into the street. That should be enough to chase my clients away.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

rankandfile no worries as that was the response I expected from him.

Over the past week I had found out alot of the information I needed directly from the HOA. They were very helpful. It looks like I found a showstopper as these clients each have a car and so does their son. The HOA stopped granting variances for permanent parking in the guest parking areas. Although you can park in front of the garages it is pretty thin and you cannot extend into the street. That should be enough to chase my clients away.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

hpi we will not know what the purchase price is until escrow closes.

there is a sale at 11978 Wilmington that closed in April for 697k for a bit smaller floorplan. Then another on Newporter Way for 625k in January for an another floorplan that is still a bit smaller as well. Then again there is another expiration at 11915 Wilmington at 649-699k.

So at current market it could be argued that mid to higher 600’s would at least appraise. However I would not recommend paying that much for a home like this. I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

hpi we will not know what the purchase price is until escrow closes.

there is a sale at 11978 Wilmington that closed in April for 697k for a bit smaller floorplan. Then another on Newporter Way for 625k in January for an another floorplan that is still a bit smaller as well. Then again there is another expiration at 11915 Wilmington at 649-699k.

So at current market it could be argued that mid to higher 600’s would at least appraise. However I would not recommend paying that much for a home like this. I think this neighborhood will take a good ride down.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

So I kind of lost sight of where this post started. My two cents would be as follows. The two homeowners here who bought in 1999 obviously have done well. The facts seem obvious right? They purchased the home before the big runup, the median price to median income was reasonable, and to summarize they bought the homes to live in. So while there was a real estate depreciation cycle in their rear view mirror, the risk of another one at the time they bought was remote. I doubt that in their wildest dreams they anticipated the appreciation they got. Thus I don’t believe they purchased the homes as investment vehicles. They purchased them to raise a family in, and live in. Everything else was gravy.

Now the person who bought in 05 is the antithesis. He purchased at the top of the market. In short, he could not have bought at a worse time if he tried to. He MAY indeed have purchased for the same reasons that the other two homeowners did, but that doesn’t matter. It is clear he bought something he could not afford and is now suffering because of that.

I guess my point is that I really do not believe that the argument about investing instead of buying is noteworthy. You buy a home to live in it. You buy a home ONLY if you could afford it because if you cannot, eventually you will lose it. The most successful people I know didn’t forego buying a home because they felt they needed to invest in the stock market. They have their home, and they have their investment money and they are seperate.

While many people inadvertently made hundreds of thousands in housing because of the timing of when they bought and sold, I believe the vast majority of them simply caught the tide at the right time. This post is not advocating buying a home now. It is advocating that you should only buy a home you can afford, and you should buy a home because you love the home. Finally the timing of when you buy the home WILL have tremendous impact on the performance of the home as an investment.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

So I kind of lost sight of where this post started. My two cents would be as follows. The two homeowners here who bought in 1999 obviously have done well. The facts seem obvious right? They purchased the home before the big runup, the median price to median income was reasonable, and to summarize they bought the homes to live in. So while there was a real estate depreciation cycle in their rear view mirror, the risk of another one at the time they bought was remote. I doubt that in their wildest dreams they anticipated the appreciation they got. Thus I don’t believe they purchased the homes as investment vehicles. They purchased them to raise a family in, and live in. Everything else was gravy.

Now the person who bought in 05 is the antithesis. He purchased at the top of the market. In short, he could not have bought at a worse time if he tried to. He MAY indeed have purchased for the same reasons that the other two homeowners did, but that doesn’t matter. It is clear he bought something he could not afford and is now suffering because of that.

I guess my point is that I really do not believe that the argument about investing instead of buying is noteworthy. You buy a home to live in it. You buy a home ONLY if you could afford it because if you cannot, eventually you will lose it. The most successful people I know didn’t forego buying a home because they felt they needed to invest in the stock market. They have their home, and they have their investment money and they are seperate.

While many people inadvertently made hundreds of thousands in housing because of the timing of when they bought and sold, I believe the vast majority of them simply caught the tide at the right time. This post is not advocating buying a home now. It is advocating that you should only buy a home you can afford, and you should buy a home because you love the home. Finally the timing of when you buy the home WILL have tremendous impact on the performance of the home as an investment.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

waitingtobuy there is quite a history on this home. It is broker owned. Basically the guy has been listing this home for over a year now.

3/30/05 – 8/4/05 he had it at 775 and lowered it to 725-745k
2/21/06 – 5/20/06 he had it at 699k and lowered it to 670-685k
4/4/07 -6/3/07 he had it at 697 and lowered it to 675k and then he withdrew it.

Then he relisted it on 6/7/07 and he listed it at 709-737k. Then on 6/22 he changed the price to 547k and he put in the following comments:

“Home will be sold to the highest most reasonable bid this weekend only….then in the confidential remarks… “Broker Owner; Sale price for this weekend only! Buyers must add Agent’s commission on top of thier winning bid. Open House/Auction June 23 & 24 12-5pm.”

*********

So he is now in escrow… I am not sure what this guy owes on the home. He has a mortgage for 475k in 06 plus a 30k private party loan after that. There are some other small private party loans prior to the mortgage so I don’t know if they were paid off or not.

It will be interesting to see what he gets for this home. Looks like his auction worked. Also looked like he was quite unrealistic in all his previous pricing.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

waitingtobuy there is quite a history on this home. It is broker owned. Basically the guy has been listing this home for over a year now.

3/30/05 – 8/4/05 he had it at 775 and lowered it to 725-745k
2/21/06 – 5/20/06 he had it at 699k and lowered it to 670-685k
4/4/07 -6/3/07 he had it at 697 and lowered it to 675k and then he withdrew it.

Then he relisted it on 6/7/07 and he listed it at 709-737k. Then on 6/22 he changed the price to 547k and he put in the following comments:

“Home will be sold to the highest most reasonable bid this weekend only….then in the confidential remarks… “Broker Owner; Sale price for this weekend only! Buyers must add Agent’s commission on top of thier winning bid. Open House/Auction June 23 & 24 12-5pm.”

*********

So he is now in escrow… I am not sure what this guy owes on the home. He has a mortgage for 475k in 06 plus a 30k private party loan after that. There are some other small private party loans prior to the mortgage so I don’t know if they were paid off or not.

It will be interesting to see what he gets for this home. Looks like his auction worked. Also looked like he was quite unrealistic in all his previous pricing.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

In my home in Talmadge we had a monster vegie garden… my wife and her mom took great care of it. Of course we owned that house and still do. The previous rentals we have been in including the current one we have now do not want us to alter the landscape in such a manner. I guess I am lucky with landlords eh?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

In my home in Talmadge we had a monster vegie garden… my wife and her mom took great care of it. Of course we owned that house and still do. The previous rentals we have been in including the current one we have now do not want us to alter the landscape in such a manner. I guess I am lucky with landlords eh?

SD Realtor

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