Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
SD Realtor
ParticipantHmmm… lets see… you have 0 debt, sitting on a business, some cash… single!
You sound like a perfectly ripe sugarmomma to me Lindy…Someone is gonna pluck you right off the tree.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI responded to lniles post primarly to thank the gods above for telecom and gainful employment for the last 25 years. However, I don’t think I will ever leave San Diego. If so it would be a radical departure perhaps to live in Australia in a coastal area over there but that would be more pipe dream/retirement then anything else. Last winter we took the toddlers and dog to the snow in the morning and then went back to dog beach at rivermouth and were home by 3. Going to college at UCSD and living in Mission Beach was priceless. Some of the beach towns from OB (insert joke here….but OB does have character) to Encinitas are cool. I can work all week and cut out to the track to catch 4 o’clock Fridays… The urban center is what you want to make of it. If you crave culture and an urban experience then San Diego may not be your place. Most everyone here would take the 1977 version of San Diego over the 2007 version but I still like it here. I will bitch and moan about the cost of living here and most likely endure a lower quality of life because of the hours I have to work as opposed to living elsewhere. However family is here and above all that is the priority. I guess the weather is not to bad either.
ParticipantI responded to lniles post primarly to thank the gods above for telecom and gainful employment for the last 25 years. However, I don’t think I will ever leave San Diego. If so it would be a radical departure perhaps to live in Australia in a coastal area over there but that would be more pipe dream/retirement then anything else. Last winter we took the toddlers and dog to the snow in the morning and then went back to dog beach at rivermouth and were home by 3. Going to college at UCSD and living in Mission Beach was priceless. Some of the beach towns from OB (insert joke here….but OB does have character) to Encinitas are cool. I can work all week and cut out to the track to catch 4 o’clock Fridays… The urban center is what you want to make of it. If you crave culture and an urban experience then San Diego may not be your place. Most everyone here would take the 1977 version of San Diego over the 2007 version but I still like it here. I will bitch and moan about the cost of living here and most likely endure a lower quality of life because of the hours I have to work as opposed to living elsewhere. However family is here and above all that is the priority. I guess the weather is not to bad either.
ParticipantI responded to lniles post primarly to thank the gods above for telecom and gainful employment for the last 25 years. However, I don’t think I will ever leave San Diego. If so it would be a radical departure perhaps to live in Australia in a coastal area over there but that would be more pipe dream/retirement then anything else. Last winter we took the toddlers and dog to the snow in the morning and then went back to dog beach at rivermouth and were home by 3. Going to college at UCSD and living in Mission Beach was priceless. Some of the beach towns from OB (insert joke here….but OB does have character) to Encinitas are cool. I can work all week and cut out to the track to catch 4 o’clock Fridays… The urban center is what you want to make of it. If you crave culture and an urban experience then San Diego may not be your place. Most everyone here would take the 1977 version of San Diego over the 2007 version but I still like it here. I will bitch and moan about the cost of living here and most likely endure a lower quality of life because of the hours I have to work as opposed to living elsewhere. However family is here and above all that is the priority. I guess the weather is not to bad either.
August 8, 2007 at 2:18 PM in reply to: Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out? #71906ParticipantHi Allan –
I know you were addressing sdr but I thought I would throw in my two cents. I do believe this will have an impact. I think there are alot of well incomed individuals or families looking to buy into the 700k-900k range who were going to rely on this sort of financing. This falls square into the 100k+ per year engineer type who has say 100-200 in cash for a downpayment. So they were going to buy that nice home from the builder in say CV or 4S and now they just saw the payment jump a few hundred bucks.
I do believe it will take awhile for this event to manifest itself into the statistics we always see. I doubt the median will get affected for many months. The volume and active/pending ratios will be the first visible signs of the change. Also as we are hitting the cyclical slow season it will further mask this out. I also feel that this REALLY adds vulnerability to the rate cycle. These risk premium additions imposed by the secondary market are hard to swallow but if the 10 year was at 5.5 then it would be a real gut punch.
So in summary I think this will manifest itself over the next few months to help suppress pricing. As always many of the sellers who just don’t get it will need to cycle through a few months of inactivity and then decide if they should cut bait or pull out of the market. Once that pipe is cleaned out, this should hit the “family looking for the nice home in the good school district” types the most such that they will sit for awhile longer. Thus I would expect the cookie cutter 4S, CV and those types of homes to suffer once it does kick in.
SD Realtor
August 8, 2007 at 2:18 PM in reply to: Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out? #72022ParticipantHi Allan –
I know you were addressing sdr but I thought I would throw in my two cents. I do believe this will have an impact. I think there are alot of well incomed individuals or families looking to buy into the 700k-900k range who were going to rely on this sort of financing. This falls square into the 100k+ per year engineer type who has say 100-200 in cash for a downpayment. So they were going to buy that nice home from the builder in say CV or 4S and now they just saw the payment jump a few hundred bucks.
I do believe it will take awhile for this event to manifest itself into the statistics we always see. I doubt the median will get affected for many months. The volume and active/pending ratios will be the first visible signs of the change. Also as we are hitting the cyclical slow season it will further mask this out. I also feel that this REALLY adds vulnerability to the rate cycle. These risk premium additions imposed by the secondary market are hard to swallow but if the 10 year was at 5.5 then it would be a real gut punch.
So in summary I think this will manifest itself over the next few months to help suppress pricing. As always many of the sellers who just don’t get it will need to cycle through a few months of inactivity and then decide if they should cut bait or pull out of the market. Once that pipe is cleaned out, this should hit the “family looking for the nice home in the good school district” types the most such that they will sit for awhile longer. Thus I would expect the cookie cutter 4S, CV and those types of homes to suffer once it does kick in.
SD Realtor
August 8, 2007 at 2:18 PM in reply to: Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out? #72033ParticipantHi Allan –
I know you were addressing sdr but I thought I would throw in my two cents. I do believe this will have an impact. I think there are alot of well incomed individuals or families looking to buy into the 700k-900k range who were going to rely on this sort of financing. This falls square into the 100k+ per year engineer type who has say 100-200 in cash for a downpayment. So they were going to buy that nice home from the builder in say CV or 4S and now they just saw the payment jump a few hundred bucks.
I do believe it will take awhile for this event to manifest itself into the statistics we always see. I doubt the median will get affected for many months. The volume and active/pending ratios will be the first visible signs of the change. Also as we are hitting the cyclical slow season it will further mask this out. I also feel that this REALLY adds vulnerability to the rate cycle. These risk premium additions imposed by the secondary market are hard to swallow but if the 10 year was at 5.5 then it would be a real gut punch.
So in summary I think this will manifest itself over the next few months to help suppress pricing. As always many of the sellers who just don’t get it will need to cycle through a few months of inactivity and then decide if they should cut bait or pull out of the market. Once that pipe is cleaned out, this should hit the “family looking for the nice home in the good school district” types the most such that they will sit for awhile longer. Thus I would expect the cookie cutter 4S, CV and those types of homes to suffer once it does kick in.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSaw that tg… more then 12 basis points last I checked…
I think that the ignorance of our senate and house is clearly evident when they talk tough about trade sanctions and such with China. There really is not an easy solution here. Our own industry leaders have taken full advantage of the capitalistic society we promote so blaming them or forcing them to relocate for the security of our nation seems hypocritical. Yet my personal feelings about that are definitely mixed. I cannot fathom that China actually produces components for alot of our military equipment but there is no denying that. Furthermore the reality that this will be the new world leader is also something I tend to live in denial about though I know it to be true.
With all that said, I don’t believe China is in a position right now to shake out our economy with a bond market sell off and crash the dollar. Someday they most likely will be though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSaw that tg… more then 12 basis points last I checked…
I think that the ignorance of our senate and house is clearly evident when they talk tough about trade sanctions and such with China. There really is not an easy solution here. Our own industry leaders have taken full advantage of the capitalistic society we promote so blaming them or forcing them to relocate for the security of our nation seems hypocritical. Yet my personal feelings about that are definitely mixed. I cannot fathom that China actually produces components for alot of our military equipment but there is no denying that. Furthermore the reality that this will be the new world leader is also something I tend to live in denial about though I know it to be true.
With all that said, I don’t believe China is in a position right now to shake out our economy with a bond market sell off and crash the dollar. Someday they most likely will be though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSaw that tg… more then 12 basis points last I checked…
I think that the ignorance of our senate and house is clearly evident when they talk tough about trade sanctions and such with China. There really is not an easy solution here. Our own industry leaders have taken full advantage of the capitalistic society we promote so blaming them or forcing them to relocate for the security of our nation seems hypocritical. Yet my personal feelings about that are definitely mixed. I cannot fathom that China actually produces components for alot of our military equipment but there is no denying that. Furthermore the reality that this will be the new world leader is also something I tend to live in denial about though I know it to be true.
With all that said, I don’t believe China is in a position right now to shake out our economy with a bond market sell off and crash the dollar. Someday they most likely will be though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt is really tough to track. If you follow the timeline of a single distressed home it is easy. First the NOD, then the NOT then the trustee sale. In general the trustee sale happens almost 4 months (a little less actually) from the NOD.
However many people that get the NOD may cure the default only to get another NOD down the road and start the train all over.
My “guess” is that the reporting you see is simply the number of recordings that come out in that time period. So say the sample is for one month. In that month there are x NODs and y NOTs. There is not any correlations if any of the y NOTs were due to any of the x NODs. In fact more then likely the y NOTs were due to NODs in the previous months, mostly about 2-3 months prior.
Wards predictions are pretty accurate and I like his site. I kind of wish he had more details about the data itself and more information about cures, repeat offenders and such. Good site though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt is really tough to track. If you follow the timeline of a single distressed home it is easy. First the NOD, then the NOT then the trustee sale. In general the trustee sale happens almost 4 months (a little less actually) from the NOD.
However many people that get the NOD may cure the default only to get another NOD down the road and start the train all over.
My “guess” is that the reporting you see is simply the number of recordings that come out in that time period. So say the sample is for one month. In that month there are x NODs and y NOTs. There is not any correlations if any of the y NOTs were due to any of the x NODs. In fact more then likely the y NOTs were due to NODs in the previous months, mostly about 2-3 months prior.
Wards predictions are pretty accurate and I like his site. I kind of wish he had more details about the data itself and more information about cures, repeat offenders and such. Good site though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt is really tough to track. If you follow the timeline of a single distressed home it is easy. First the NOD, then the NOT then the trustee sale. In general the trustee sale happens almost 4 months (a little less actually) from the NOD.
However many people that get the NOD may cure the default only to get another NOD down the road and start the train all over.
My “guess” is that the reporting you see is simply the number of recordings that come out in that time period. So say the sample is for one month. In that month there are x NODs and y NOTs. There is not any correlations if any of the y NOTs were due to any of the x NODs. In fact more then likely the y NOTs were due to NODs in the previous months, mostly about 2-3 months prior.
Wards predictions are pretty accurate and I like his site. I kind of wish he had more details about the data itself and more information about cures, repeat offenders and such. Good site though.
SD Realtor
Participantbob007 I don’t agree with your post. You cannot just move a company. Places like Cisco and other giants will not just move. They went to places like China and India for reasons beyond just cheap labor. The labor is not just cheap but is also much more educated then you have implied. Furthermore just moving doesn’t happen in industry, it is planned out many years in advance. Finally large companies care much more about their own bottom line; not the welfare of the US government.
-
AuthorPosts
