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SD Realtor
ParticipantAsragov I respectfully disagree and believe you are missing the point. It is well understood that the bailouts will not stop the depreciation trend. However to simply handwave it away is not appropriate. It is one thing for people on the website to express bitterness for not being able to buy a home. To berate foolish buyers over the past many years for buying something they could not afford. Similarly I would guess the prevailing (and incorrect) belief by everyone who has been prudent was –
– It will not affect me because I have been prudent.
– I will not have to bailout these people.Well what we are seeing is that these two assumptions have been dead wrong. You and I and everyone else from hardcore bears like JWM to others like Alex Angel and temecula guy and all the other players here will donate some of our tax money be it local, state, federal, whatever… in some way shape or form some of it will wind its way to the FHA or some other platform that in the long run will either bailout someone who f**d up or purchase a new jumbo loan on the secondary market or something like that.
To say, “oh don’t worry it will never stop the depreciation” is an improper response. Especially because there will be more programs like this. Our government is hell bent on continuing to promote spending and they will back that policy up come hell or high water. These programs will be rolled out at potentially federal, state and local levels. So I would kind of hold my breathe for awhile.
SD Realtor
September 20, 2007 at 4:34 PM in reply to: Subprime Borrowers to Lose Homes at Record Pace as Rates Rise #85338ParticipantCoop I am with you…No intervention is the best way to go…
My fear is not one person or one bill… Bush is a boob and Hillary… well don’t get me started on her… but when I aggregate all of them together… 1582 snaking its way through the legislature… increasing conforming limits…FHA protection for jumbos…any of the democratic politicians coming to rescue homeowners in 08 (lest we not forget Hillary and her plans for socialized medicince) and the republicans equally idiotic response…. it seems to me that all of it together will amount to 3 things.
1 – I will pay for it with my taxes.
2 – It really will not affect a whole lot other then to maybe slow things down some.
3 – It will already add to my daily crabbiness that my wife has to endure.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI think builders are already out in front and have been for awhile now. They may not have cut prices as much as everyone wants them to, but they are definitely far more aggressive then resellers. I would classify a builder as a must sell homewoner. They have no choice and have to sell the home. A reseller, unless pressed by a NOD or a relo, divorce, or other substantial event, is never as motivated as a builder. Similarly resellers are always more emotional… Hopefully they will get it eventually.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThanks sdr… agreed completely….
SD Realtor
Participantsdr I think you got everyone whipped up with the statement about lots of homeowners with alot of equity moving on!
One thing that also needs to be taken into account is what were the original list prices to begin with. The other is, what is the actual quality of the home.
Many moons ago you made a VERY PERTINENT statement about there may be alot of good deals out there, but not alot of good homes. I think this is still holding very strong, especially in the more desireable areas. To me someone knocking 50k off a 949k list price or even an 800k list price doesn’t mean much at all. I think the sales volume will bear that out. This statement is not to disagree with you but more to point out to the board that (at least in my opinion) this is not indicative of a major chunk downwards yet.
SD Realtor
ParticipantMy sister in law works for the brand name as well… I think the same one as sdr. Same thing that sdr said about his office Rustico. There is alot of freedom for the agents to provide value to the office without having to maintain the standard work week that is everyday life of other professions. Especially agents that have been involved for many years and have built up a considerable client base. That is much more valuable to the broker then having someone providing face time in the office.
SD Realtor
September 19, 2007 at 11:03 PM in reply to: Looks likethe short squeeze is continuing this morning. #85262ParticipantTough call tg… I have been really starting to think that one out myself as well….
I have always been a big believer of stagflation but now I am beginning to question those thoughts. A simple calculation that is pretty much uselss was just running a quick mortgage payment on a 600k loan at 6% gives you a 3597 payment and 6600 (at 1.1%) for annual prop tax. A 540k loan at 7% gives you 3592 payment and about 6k annual prop tax. So that 10% drop breaks you even for these particular amounts. BTW at 8% you need 490k to match the payment.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNewbie –
Don’t stress out on the bias that you hear on the blogs. I have heard people bang on Santee, Temecula, Mira Mesa, Pacific Beach, 4S, North Park, South Park, Downtown, Eastlake… etc… It is just what it is. It is one thing to point out the pp/sf difference in a neighborhood but it seems some people like to crack on those neighborhoods rather then simply say it is not where they would want to live. It is sad but I guess it passes the time for them…
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt just depends on the LIBOR. As you have read there are alot of postings that contend the Fed Funds rate does correlate with the LIBOR. So I am not gonna step into that argument other then to say we will have to wait and see. Also don’t forget there is margin built into those resets as well.
SD Realtor
ParticipantRus I gotta agree with JWM… Wife and I make some decent money but saving 6k a month… not a chance in hell. With the two kids, and both of us working, daycare, rent, paying mother in law to help us out as well… stocking up 401k, stock purchase plan, and everything else… the numbers don’t even come close to that…
I am not saying you cannot save for a home… I have done that but only by carrying 2 jobs and getting about 5 hours or sleep a night for a few years. Just trying to save up based on engineering job alone wouldn’t have covered it unless I wanted to sacrifice other savings vehicles.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSee that is what this site needs… more discussion about Joey Greco, green plastic army men and football…
Concho the stabbing scene may have been one of the best of all time. Talk about classic entertainment. I personally liked the one where the guy caught busted by his wife and she was a bbw and she chased him through the bowling alley, caught him, then took her shoe off and started smacking him with it…. you can’t make that stuff up…
Okay I just wanted to see if there was a degenerate who shared some of my values. Sorry for hijacking the thread!
Oh and no I am not knocking Texas/Austin/Dallas at all, my in laws live in North Richland Hills and it seems nice enough. Every time we do visit when we go out at night I hope to be in one of the bars that Joey and his crew come into when they bust the cheater so I can yell Joey Joey Joey!
Long live Gomez…
SD Realtor
ParticipantHey don’t knock Dallas man! One of the great shows of all times Cheaters is filmed there with the infamous Joey Grecco…
SD Realtor
ParticipantI am kind of agnostic on the whole thing. I still believe the normal trend of seasonal activity will overshadow the activity by the Feds and the perception issue. I look for inventory to stay somewhat flat and slowly decrease over the next 3 months. We may get a little bump in the next few weeks as summer procrastinators rush to put homes on the market but I see alot of giving up to follow. I then expect the inventory to pick up again in the spring. I also believe we will see the usual higher level of sales in the spring… whether those sales fall below spring 07 numbers will be interesting to see…
Anyways I guess my answer to you is no I don’t see it. The caviot is that the homebuilders are really pushing to get rid of their inventory but I am assuming that is not the phantom inventory you are referring to.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSorry buyorhold –
Thanks for not sending. Sorry about that but the board is right. It is a violation for me to assist and as pointed out here I have stepped over the line. Here is my recommendation.
Take the documents to the broker the agent is employed by and ask him to sit down and read through them with you very carefully to explain the situation. If there are stipulations in the listing agreement or the addendum that require you to compensate the brokerage for costs, he will explain them to you. Additionally he will also explain that there is a safe list he can (if he chooses to do so) provide to you that will essentially be a list of names that you cannot sell the house to (or if you do he shall get compensated) for a fixed period of time.
If you want a more unbiased advocate then take the documents to a real estate attorney and they can look them over and explain to you what you can or cannot do, what your rights are, and what obligations the contracts have for you.
SD Realtor
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