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SD Realtor
ParticipantDarn… each time the REDC auction lists the properties I mean to download all of the advertised starting bids so we can look at them after the auction (several weeks later) to see if the properties closed and what the closing prices were actually at. I already went to the site and they have already removed the SD auction.
I agree with everything 4plex said about the auction. However I think they may actually provide bargains as long as you keep to your strategy, perform ALL of your due diligence BEFORE the auction, and stick to your price limit.
SD Realtor
ParticipantLong day… went from UC to North Park to Eastlake to Imperial Beach… what fun… Anyways the kids are in the bath and mom is watching them so I get to get my fixx in.
Okay so I will kind of stay away from commenting on the merits of the neighborhoods you mentioned over each other. They each have alot of good to them. It looks like school districts are a don’t care since the kids are in college.
4S, Torrey Highlands and Scripps… well my two cents (which is about what it is worth) is that out of those 3 4S and Stonebridge in Scripps are the most likely to suffer the heaviest depreciation. Maybe some of the newer inventory in Scripps south of Scripps Poway Pkwy but north of Spring Canyon may take a good beating as well. I have already seen some whopping losses in Stonebridge and ocrenter has an excellent pulse on 4S. Personally in Scripps I am a sucker for south of Pomerado but that is just me… plus it is out of my league until I get a job working for Rustico or sdr… Torrey Highlands is pretty cool and contrary to claims in a post a few weeks ago that it has not gone down, it has from the peak… I know the owner (or shall I say I have spoke to the owner) of the Torrey Highlands listing on Entreken. That was another case of someone giving me the boot when I gave them my pricing outlook of the market. It will be interesting to see what that home gets as they are asking 1.045-1.095M… I just don’t see that happening but ya know what? Alot of people like Torrey Highlands.
Good to see you are budgeting or running a scenario of depreciation out… I would add more margin into the worst case, that is punch up 35-40% just as a really bad case. Again, I am not sure that this matters if you are keeping the home for retirement. However!!! It would be interesting to see what you could buy for if it indeed went that low.
I am not trying to talk you in or out of buying, just trying to make sure you run out each of the scenarios to all possibilities.
ParticipantLong day… went from UC to North Park to Eastlake to Imperial Beach… what fun… Anyways the kids are in the bath and mom is watching them so I get to get my fixx in.
Okay so I will kind of stay away from commenting on the merits of the neighborhoods you mentioned over each other. They each have alot of good to them. It looks like school districts are a don’t care since the kids are in college.
4S, Torrey Highlands and Scripps… well my two cents (which is about what it is worth) is that out of those 3 4S and Stonebridge in Scripps are the most likely to suffer the heaviest depreciation. Maybe some of the newer inventory in Scripps south of Scripps Poway Pkwy but north of Spring Canyon may take a good beating as well. I have already seen some whopping losses in Stonebridge and ocrenter has an excellent pulse on 4S. Personally in Scripps I am a sucker for south of Pomerado but that is just me… plus it is out of my league until I get a job working for Rustico or sdr… Torrey Highlands is pretty cool and contrary to claims in a post a few weeks ago that it has not gone down, it has from the peak… I know the owner (or shall I say I have spoke to the owner) of the Torrey Highlands listing on Entreken. That was another case of someone giving me the boot when I gave them my pricing outlook of the market. It will be interesting to see what that home gets as they are asking 1.045-1.095M… I just don’t see that happening but ya know what? Alot of people like Torrey Highlands.
Good to see you are budgeting or running a scenario of depreciation out… I would add more margin into the worst case, that is punch up 35-40% just as a really bad case. Again, I am not sure that this matters if you are keeping the home for retirement. However!!! It would be interesting to see what you could buy for if it indeed went that low.
I am not trying to talk you in or out of buying, just trying to make sure you run out each of the scenarios to all possibilities.
ParticipantLong day… went from UC to North Park to Eastlake to Imperial Beach… what fun… Anyways the kids are in the bath and mom is watching them so I get to get my fixx in.
Okay so I will kind of stay away from commenting on the merits of the neighborhoods you mentioned over each other. They each have alot of good to them. It looks like school districts are a don’t care since the kids are in college.
4S, Torrey Highlands and Scripps… well my two cents (which is about what it is worth) is that out of those 3 4S and Stonebridge in Scripps are the most likely to suffer the heaviest depreciation. Maybe some of the newer inventory in Scripps south of Scripps Poway Pkwy but north of Spring Canyon may take a good beating as well. I have already seen some whopping losses in Stonebridge and ocrenter has an excellent pulse on 4S. Personally in Scripps I am a sucker for south of Pomerado but that is just me… plus it is out of my league until I get a job working for Rustico or sdr… Torrey Highlands is pretty cool and contrary to claims in a post a few weeks ago that it has not gone down, it has from the peak… I know the owner (or shall I say I have spoke to the owner) of the Torrey Highlands listing on Entreken. That was another case of someone giving me the boot when I gave them my pricing outlook of the market. It will be interesting to see what that home gets as they are asking 1.045-1.095M… I just don’t see that happening but ya know what? Alot of people like Torrey Highlands.
Good to see you are budgeting or running a scenario of depreciation out… I would add more margin into the worst case, that is punch up 35-40% just as a really bad case. Again, I am not sure that this matters if you are keeping the home for retirement. However!!! It would be interesting to see what you could buy for if it indeed went that low.
I am not trying to talk you in or out of buying, just trying to make sure you run out each of the scenarios to all possibilities.
ParticipantPretty funny you brought up Enorahs post… I recall it well because I personally poo pood all over it and like a few days later the credit crunch hit the fan…and I looked like the idiot… not the first time either…
I don’t really see any tipping point… just a slide down that will be uneven throughout the next 3-4 years.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPretty funny you brought up Enorahs post… I recall it well because I personally poo pood all over it and like a few days later the credit crunch hit the fan…and I looked like the idiot… not the first time either…
I don’t really see any tipping point… just a slide down that will be uneven throughout the next 3-4 years.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPretty funny you brought up Enorahs post… I recall it well because I personally poo pood all over it and like a few days later the credit crunch hit the fan…and I looked like the idiot… not the first time either…
I don’t really see any tipping point… just a slide down that will be uneven throughout the next 3-4 years.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAhhh Cliff that is the golden question is it not? My personal read (which is simply an opinion) is that things will stretch out longer then that. Left to its own devices I think the market would fall quicker and normalize quicker. Wildcards include a potential recession and in my opinion the bigger wildcard will be how we deal with the economics of a falling dollar. Sometime in the future the piper will be paid and interest rates will go up and if they go to where they need to go, that could have a much more whopping on the market then what we have seen in the past 2 years.
Also I think what you said is particularly true about your target market. It is supported in a heavy manner by working class people with strong jobs and 6 figure incomes. I do believe it will depreciate but where the bottom is nobody knows. Many will speculate it is another 30%, 50% perhaps more. I am not in the camp of a 50% depreciation but over several years I could see an aggregate of 30%, maybe a bit more or less…
This is probably the most discussed topic on this website, how far down will desireable areas go. You already know that correct?
Also if you are planning on buying, and it is for the long term of retirement then you can look at it two ways… One, that regardless of the price, if you are secure you can make the payment, then you are good regardless of the roller coastering of the market. Conversely, you can say, well, if I am buying for retirement, what is the rush? Why not sit tight another 2 or 3 years, and potentially save alot of money. Family harmony is important as well but I get beat down by the bears whenver I mention that so I will not harp on it…
Like you said, in the rearview mirror a few years from now you will know the answer. All you can do in the meantime is run numbers and see what they will look like so that whatever you do, you will not run into an unexpected event.
I know… I wrote alot but didn’t say much.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAhhh Cliff that is the golden question is it not? My personal read (which is simply an opinion) is that things will stretch out longer then that. Left to its own devices I think the market would fall quicker and normalize quicker. Wildcards include a potential recession and in my opinion the bigger wildcard will be how we deal with the economics of a falling dollar. Sometime in the future the piper will be paid and interest rates will go up and if they go to where they need to go, that could have a much more whopping on the market then what we have seen in the past 2 years.
Also I think what you said is particularly true about your target market. It is supported in a heavy manner by working class people with strong jobs and 6 figure incomes. I do believe it will depreciate but where the bottom is nobody knows. Many will speculate it is another 30%, 50% perhaps more. I am not in the camp of a 50% depreciation but over several years I could see an aggregate of 30%, maybe a bit more or less…
This is probably the most discussed topic on this website, how far down will desireable areas go. You already know that correct?
Also if you are planning on buying, and it is for the long term of retirement then you can look at it two ways… One, that regardless of the price, if you are secure you can make the payment, then you are good regardless of the roller coastering of the market. Conversely, you can say, well, if I am buying for retirement, what is the rush? Why not sit tight another 2 or 3 years, and potentially save alot of money. Family harmony is important as well but I get beat down by the bears whenver I mention that so I will not harp on it…
Like you said, in the rearview mirror a few years from now you will know the answer. All you can do in the meantime is run numbers and see what they will look like so that whatever you do, you will not run into an unexpected event.
I know… I wrote alot but didn’t say much.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAhhh Cliff that is the golden question is it not? My personal read (which is simply an opinion) is that things will stretch out longer then that. Left to its own devices I think the market would fall quicker and normalize quicker. Wildcards include a potential recession and in my opinion the bigger wildcard will be how we deal with the economics of a falling dollar. Sometime in the future the piper will be paid and interest rates will go up and if they go to where they need to go, that could have a much more whopping on the market then what we have seen in the past 2 years.
Also I think what you said is particularly true about your target market. It is supported in a heavy manner by working class people with strong jobs and 6 figure incomes. I do believe it will depreciate but where the bottom is nobody knows. Many will speculate it is another 30%, 50% perhaps more. I am not in the camp of a 50% depreciation but over several years I could see an aggregate of 30%, maybe a bit more or less…
This is probably the most discussed topic on this website, how far down will desireable areas go. You already know that correct?
Also if you are planning on buying, and it is for the long term of retirement then you can look at it two ways… One, that regardless of the price, if you are secure you can make the payment, then you are good regardless of the roller coastering of the market. Conversely, you can say, well, if I am buying for retirement, what is the rush? Why not sit tight another 2 or 3 years, and potentially save alot of money. Family harmony is important as well but I get beat down by the bears whenver I mention that so I will not harp on it…
Like you said, in the rearview mirror a few years from now you will know the answer. All you can do in the meantime is run numbers and see what they will look like so that whatever you do, you will not run into an unexpected event.
I know… I wrote alot but didn’t say much.
SD Realtor
ParticipantBugs covered it all to well… as usual…
What you guys may want to do is simply chart out the data. Make an assumption on saving X$ a year in property taxes verses what yout think the depreciation (annual) will be for properties in the target market that you want to buy in. Also don’t forget to factor in your savings on renting verses buying. That is non trivial as is the interest you make on those savings.
The wild card here will be the assumed interest on your mortgage. That will be a factor you will need to play with to play out a few different scenarios.
I know it seems kind of daunting to do at first but really after you start it up, it is not.
Like Bugs said, the biggest question is how far down you think prices will go in the target market you are looking to buy in.
SD Realtor
ParticipantBugs covered it all to well… as usual…
What you guys may want to do is simply chart out the data. Make an assumption on saving X$ a year in property taxes verses what yout think the depreciation (annual) will be for properties in the target market that you want to buy in. Also don’t forget to factor in your savings on renting verses buying. That is non trivial as is the interest you make on those savings.
The wild card here will be the assumed interest on your mortgage. That will be a factor you will need to play with to play out a few different scenarios.
I know it seems kind of daunting to do at first but really after you start it up, it is not.
Like Bugs said, the biggest question is how far down you think prices will go in the target market you are looking to buy in.
SD Realtor
ParticipantBugs covered it all to well… as usual…
What you guys may want to do is simply chart out the data. Make an assumption on saving X$ a year in property taxes verses what yout think the depreciation (annual) will be for properties in the target market that you want to buy in. Also don’t forget to factor in your savings on renting verses buying. That is non trivial as is the interest you make on those savings.
The wild card here will be the assumed interest on your mortgage. That will be a factor you will need to play with to play out a few different scenarios.
I know it seems kind of daunting to do at first but really after you start it up, it is not.
Like Bugs said, the biggest question is how far down you think prices will go in the target market you are looking to buy in.
SD Realtor
Participantkev –
I would by no means call my self an expert at foreclosures. I would say though that in my experiences right now with short sales they are by far more of a pain in the -ss then simply purchasing an reo property. The response time from the lenders are just to much to deal with. Additionally in SOME CASES the list price on the MLS for short sales does not really seem to correlate with the reality of what the lender will accept. I think that once the property does finally become an REO that there is much more motivation by the lender.
With regards to an REO note that any REO you purchase will pretty much be exempt from any and all disclosure. Lenders have never lived in or occupied the home so they have no knowledge of any existing problems. They will also have a pretty hefty release of liability for you to accept. There is nothing wrong or abnormal about this. It just merits that you do as thorough a job as possible performing your own diligence. Whil eyou do have the right to ask for a termite clearance and request any repairs you find during the due diligence period, it is best to assume the lender will not remedy any requests made.. they may credit you some money, they may not. It never hurts to ask right?
At any rate, the final question is how do you think the market will do in the future AND to be more specific in your target area? Do you think there will be further depreciation? Do you envision foreclosures in that target market? The answer is most likely yes in both cases. So hanging out and waiting a few more years may be the best strategy.
Again though, the main point is with the REO properties, just do a very thorough job with your due diligence and you can save alot of money.
Also do not confuse an REO or private auction with a trustee sale. The trustee sale is an auction of sorts where you can purchase properties but the vast majority of trustee sales end up with the property going back to the lender.
SD Realtor -
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