Prop 60 requires we purchase in early ’08

[SD Realtor]

Ahhh Cliff that is the golden question is it not? My personal read (which is simply an opinion) is that things will stretch out longer then that. Left to its own devices I think the market would fall quicker and normalize quicker. Wildcards include a potential recession and in my opinion the bigger wildcard will be how we deal with the economics of a falling dollar. Sometime in the future the piper will be paid and interest rates will go up and if they go to where they need to go, that could have a much more whopping on the market then what we have seen in the past 2 years.

Also I think what you said is particularly true about your target market. It is supported in a heavy manner by working class people with strong jobs and 6 figure incomes. I do believe it will depreciate but where the bottom is nobody knows. Many will speculate it is another 30%, 50% perhaps more. I am not in the camp of a 50% depreciation but over several years I could see an aggregate of 30%, maybe a bit more or less…

This is probably the most discussed topic on this website, how far down will desireable areas go. You already know that correct?

Also if you are planning on buying, and it is for the long term of retirement then you can look at it two ways… One, that regardless of the price, if you are secure you can make the payment, then you are good regardless of the roller coastering of the market. Conversely, you can say, well, if I am buying for retirement, what is the rush? Why not sit tight another 2 or 3 years, and potentially save alot of money. Family harmony is important as well but I get beat down by the bears whenver I mention that so I will not harp on it…

Like you said, in the rearview mirror a few years from now you will know the answer. All you can do in the meantime is run numbers and see what they will look like so that whatever you do, you will not run into an unexpected event.

I know… I wrote alot but didn’t say much.

SD Realtor

[cliff-hanger]

SDR,

On the contrary, you said quite a lot and it’s resonating more than you would imagine… very much appreciated. Although I might like to think this is still open for discussion, family harmony will certainly win over and so the question of when we take the plunge is essentially made. Now we will need to decide where we’ll live and a strategy with the timing of an offer, June deadline to close, etc. Since we do agree on the ‘golden question,’ (ala my user name) if the thread moves in the direction of the desirability/qualities and potential future of 4S, Torrey Highlands, and Scripps Ranch, and the timing of the transaction process then great.

I would note that we intend to make our new home free and clear in ’08, pay college tuition for a few more years, then maximize our retirement savings for about ten years before I (ostensibly) retire. In the 3-5 year horizon, we have discussed the possibility of a further 25% decline and would be prepared to weather it.

I’m off to work in the yard for the rest of the day, will check back this evening.

cliff-hanger

[cliff-hanger]

SDR,

On the contrary, you said quite a lot and it’s resonating more than you would imagine… very much appreciated. Although I might like to think this is still open for discussion, family harmony will certainly win over and so the question of when we take the plunge is essentially made. Now we will need to decide where we’ll live and a strategy with the timing of an offer, June deadline to close, etc. Since we do agree on the ‘golden question,’ (ala my user name) if the thread moves in the direction of the desirability/qualities and potential future of 4S, Torrey Highlands, and Scripps Ranch, and the timing of the transaction process then great.

I would note that we intend to make our new home free and clear in ’08, pay college tuition for a few more years, then maximize our retirement savings for about ten years before I (ostensibly) retire. In the 3-5 year horizon, we have discussed the possibility of a further 25% decline and would be prepared to weather it.

I’m off to work in the yard for the rest of the day, will check back this evening.

cliff-hanger

[cliff-hanger]

SDR,

On the contrary, you said quite a lot and it’s resonating more than you would imagine… very much appreciated. Although I might like to think this is still open for discussion, family harmony will certainly win over and so the question of when we take the plunge is essentially made. Now we will need to decide where we’ll live and a strategy with the timing of an offer, June deadline to close, etc. Since we do agree on the ‘golden question,’ (ala my user name) if the thread moves in the direction of the desirability/qualities and potential future of 4S, Torrey Highlands, and Scripps Ranch, and the timing of the transaction process then great.

I would note that we intend to make our new home free and clear in ’08, pay college tuition for a few more years, then maximize our retirement savings for about ten years before I (ostensibly) retire. In the 3-5 year horizon, we have discussed the possibility of a further 25% decline and would be prepared to weather it.

I’m off to work in the yard for the rest of the day, will check back this evening.

cliff-hanger

[SD Realtor]

Long day… went from UC to North Park to Eastlake to Imperial Beach… what fun… Anyways the kids are in the bath and mom is watching them so I get to get my fixx in.

Okay so I will kind of stay away from commenting on the merits of the neighborhoods you mentioned over each other. They each have alot of good to them. It looks like school districts are a don’t care since the kids are in college.

4S, Torrey Highlands and Scripps… well my two cents (which is about what it is worth) is that out of those 3 4S and Stonebridge in Scripps are the most likely to suffer the heaviest depreciation. Maybe some of the newer inventory in Scripps south of Scripps Poway Pkwy but north of Spring Canyon may take a good beating as well. I have already seen some whopping losses in Stonebridge and ocrenter has an excellent pulse on 4S. Personally in Scripps I am a sucker for south of Pomerado but that is just me… plus it is out of my league until I get a job working for Rustico or sdr… Torrey Highlands is pretty cool and contrary to claims in a post a few weeks ago that it has not gone down, it has from the peak… I know the owner (or shall I say I have spoke to the owner) of the Torrey Highlands listing on Entreken. That was another case of someone giving me the boot when I gave them my pricing outlook of the market. It will be interesting to see what that home gets as they are asking 1.045-1.095M… I just don’t see that happening but ya know what? Alot of people like Torrey Highlands.

Good to see you are budgeting or running a scenario of depreciation out… I would add more margin into the worst case, that is punch up 35-40% just as a really bad case. Again, I am not sure that this matters if you are keeping the home for retirement. However!!! It would be interesting to see what you could buy for if it indeed went that low.

I am not trying to talk you in or out of buying, just trying to make sure you run out each of the scenarios to all possibilities.

[SD Realtor]

Long day… went from UC to North Park to Eastlake to Imperial Beach… what fun… Anyways the kids are in the bath and mom is watching them so I get to get my fixx in.

Okay so I will kind of stay away from commenting on the merits of the neighborhoods you mentioned over each other. They each have alot of good to them. It looks like school districts are a don’t care since the kids are in college.

4S, Torrey Highlands and Scripps… well my two cents (which is about what it is worth) is that out of those 3 4S and Stonebridge in Scripps are the most likely to suffer the heaviest depreciation. Maybe some of the newer inventory in Scripps south of Scripps Poway Pkwy but north of Spring Canyon may take a good beating as well. I have already seen some whopping losses in Stonebridge and ocrenter has an excellent pulse on 4S. Personally in Scripps I am a sucker for south of Pomerado but that is just me… plus it is out of my league until I get a job working for Rustico or sdr… Torrey Highlands is pretty cool and contrary to claims in a post a few weeks ago that it has not gone down, it has from the peak… I know the owner (or shall I say I have spoke to the owner) of the Torrey Highlands listing on Entreken. That was another case of someone giving me the boot when I gave them my pricing outlook of the market. It will be interesting to see what that home gets as they are asking 1.045-1.095M… I just don’t see that happening but ya know what? Alot of people like Torrey Highlands.

Good to see you are budgeting or running a scenario of depreciation out… I would add more margin into the worst case, that is punch up 35-40% just as a really bad case. Again, I am not sure that this matters if you are keeping the home for retirement. However!!! It would be interesting to see what you could buy for if it indeed went that low.

I am not trying to talk you in or out of buying, just trying to make sure you run out each of the scenarios to all possibilities.

[SD Realtor]

Long day… went from UC to North Park to Eastlake to Imperial Beach… what fun… Anyways the kids are in the bath and mom is watching them so I get to get my fixx in.

Okay so I will kind of stay away from commenting on the merits of the neighborhoods you mentioned over each other. They each have alot of good to them. It looks like school districts are a don’t care since the kids are in college.

4S, Torrey Highlands and Scripps… well my two cents (which is about what it is worth) is that out of those 3 4S and Stonebridge in Scripps are the most likely to suffer the heaviest depreciation. Maybe some of the newer inventory in Scripps south of Scripps Poway Pkwy but north of Spring Canyon may take a good beating as well. I have already seen some whopping losses in Stonebridge and ocrenter has an excellent pulse on 4S. Personally in Scripps I am a sucker for south of Pomerado but that is just me… plus it is out of my league until I get a job working for Rustico or sdr… Torrey Highlands is pretty cool and contrary to claims in a post a few weeks ago that it has not gone down, it has from the peak… I know the owner (or shall I say I have spoke to the owner) of the Torrey Highlands listing on Entreken. That was another case of someone giving me the boot when I gave them my pricing outlook of the market. It will be interesting to see what that home gets as they are asking 1.045-1.095M… I just don’t see that happening but ya know what? Alot of people like Torrey Highlands.

Good to see you are budgeting or running a scenario of depreciation out… I would add more margin into the worst case, that is punch up 35-40% just as a really bad case. Again, I am not sure that this matters if you are keeping the home for retirement. However!!! It would be interesting to see what you could buy for if it indeed went that low.

I am not trying to talk you in or out of buying, just trying to make sure you run out each of the scenarios to all possibilities.

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