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SD Realtor
Participantseattle-relo sorry to cop out on you but I would consult a CPA. I think I know the answer but it is to speculative and I do not want to give bad guidance.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Jimmy –
As usual Asianautica pretty much pegged it dead on. I know you have been very diligent tracking properties in MM over the past year. The longer you can hold out the better. If you cannot I understand. Don’t panic or be surprised if we get a little jump in the spring. It will just be a seasonal thing and then the trend will continue. (note we may not even get that seasonal bump but I tend to think we will)
You seem like you know what is going on so building up that downpayment is optimal. As you remarked above that 1600 sf model in Sommerset is about the largest model in that subdivision. As Anaut pointed out some areas of MM have held up better then others… I take if that mom the babysitter is on the west side of town. Good deals will come and will be more and more prevalent. It will just take time.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Jimmy –
As usual Asianautica pretty much pegged it dead on. I know you have been very diligent tracking properties in MM over the past year. The longer you can hold out the better. If you cannot I understand. Don’t panic or be surprised if we get a little jump in the spring. It will just be a seasonal thing and then the trend will continue. (note we may not even get that seasonal bump but I tend to think we will)
You seem like you know what is going on so building up that downpayment is optimal. As you remarked above that 1600 sf model in Sommerset is about the largest model in that subdivision. As Anaut pointed out some areas of MM have held up better then others… I take if that mom the babysitter is on the west side of town. Good deals will come and will be more and more prevalent. It will just take time.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Jimmy –
As usual Asianautica pretty much pegged it dead on. I know you have been very diligent tracking properties in MM over the past year. The longer you can hold out the better. If you cannot I understand. Don’t panic or be surprised if we get a little jump in the spring. It will just be a seasonal thing and then the trend will continue. (note we may not even get that seasonal bump but I tend to think we will)
You seem like you know what is going on so building up that downpayment is optimal. As you remarked above that 1600 sf model in Sommerset is about the largest model in that subdivision. As Anaut pointed out some areas of MM have held up better then others… I take if that mom the babysitter is on the west side of town. Good deals will come and will be more and more prevalent. It will just take time.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Jimmy –
As usual Asianautica pretty much pegged it dead on. I know you have been very diligent tracking properties in MM over the past year. The longer you can hold out the better. If you cannot I understand. Don’t panic or be surprised if we get a little jump in the spring. It will just be a seasonal thing and then the trend will continue. (note we may not even get that seasonal bump but I tend to think we will)
You seem like you know what is going on so building up that downpayment is optimal. As you remarked above that 1600 sf model in Sommerset is about the largest model in that subdivision. As Anaut pointed out some areas of MM have held up better then others… I take if that mom the babysitter is on the west side of town. Good deals will come and will be more and more prevalent. It will just take time.
SD Realtor
Participantice maybe I missed it but if you do come out here, will you be working in North County? I assume so since you are considering that area. At any rate there is alot to choose from and while it does not hurt to look around when you are out here, I would absolutely echo the calls for renting first, getting to know the area, then buying. Not only will you get to really know the area, you will most likely save money.
SD Realtor
Participantice maybe I missed it but if you do come out here, will you be working in North County? I assume so since you are considering that area. At any rate there is alot to choose from and while it does not hurt to look around when you are out here, I would absolutely echo the calls for renting first, getting to know the area, then buying. Not only will you get to really know the area, you will most likely save money.
SD Realtor
Participantice maybe I missed it but if you do come out here, will you be working in North County? I assume so since you are considering that area. At any rate there is alot to choose from and while it does not hurt to look around when you are out here, I would absolutely echo the calls for renting first, getting to know the area, then buying. Not only will you get to really know the area, you will most likely save money.
SD Realtor
Participantice maybe I missed it but if you do come out here, will you be working in North County? I assume so since you are considering that area. At any rate there is alot to choose from and while it does not hurt to look around when you are out here, I would absolutely echo the calls for renting first, getting to know the area, then buying. Not only will you get to really know the area, you will most likely save money.
SD Realtor
Participantjyu –
This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.
The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?
Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.
As always, hope this helps.
SD Realtor
Participantjyu –
This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.
The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?
Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.
As always, hope this helps.
SD Realtor
Participantjyu –
This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.
The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?
Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.
As always, hope this helps.
SD Realtor
Participantjyu –
This bellweather that sdrealtor tracks is really effective but it becomes even more useful if you take a cumulative look at it. For instance if you track the short sale thread that sdrealtor maintains, another poster artifact as taken the raw data and plots it. If you really want to gain insight into the market then taking all of the weekly data points and plotting them will help you get a visual portrayal of the market in CV that cannot be evaluated looking at single data points.
The active/pending ratio is a statistic that can give you insight into the strength of the submarket at any given time. So if there are 150 active listings and 30 pending in a given month, and then 160 active listings and 20 pendings in a different month, the results are pretty obvious. The active/pending ratio “may help” to filter out seasonal fluctuations that are omnipresent in real estate sales (there are ALWAYS more actives in the spring then in the fall). However does the active/pending ratio change in the spring verses the fall? See what I am saying?
Now as far as distress go, one school of thought is that more desireable areas have less distressed sellers. Personally I think this is true for the most part HOWEVER I think there is a strong variance within desireable areas with regard to distressed sellers. My bias is that newer desireable areas will have more distressed sellers then more established desireable areas. With regards to CV yes your assumption was are distressed properties short sales, REO or NOTs? Yes but they also may consist of people who must move due to divorce, relocation, losing jobs, etc. How can you factor that into the analysis? Well one thing you can do is ask your realtor to look for comments in the active listings such as short, bank owned, REO, etc and come up with a ratio of how many distressed active listings there are verses non distressed. If you do that for a few weeks or months you can see if the ratio starts to swing. It is not alot different then sdrealtors short sale monitor but you would do it for that particular zip code. Then you can see if that zip code is indeed growing in distress ratio.
As always, hope this helps.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi csr_sd –
So first off, to answer your question, I do not do alot of searching beyond the MLS. I do have a relationship with my title officer and have access all recordings, NOD, NOT and REO as they are recorded and give help to buyers on that front. However by FAR the majority of homes I find for people are through the MLS.
So from that standpoint, there is not alot of rocket science there.
I think part of the answer to your question also has to do with the experience/ability of the buyer. In that sense an honest realtor is good for them to have for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to being an advocate during the transaction.
Alot of buyers these days use commission rebate providers like Zip, Redfin, and yes (insert shameless plug here) myself. These buyers do alot of work on thier own, do alot of drive bys and justifiably feel that there should be some sort of discount that the realtor receives because of that. I do believe there are realtors out there who are VERY networked and plugged in who do have inside tracks on properties before they hit the MLS or may never make the MLS. I think this is what you were alluding to. I recall one of the many posts where sdrealtor and I were catfighting about full service verses non full service and he pointed out examples in his office where properties never hit the mls because of the contacts between agents in his office. So there is merit in that. I am just a little guy so I cannot boast that sort of contact ability but yes I think that there are top sellers who have more contacts and may indeed be able to provide alternative sources then the MLS. How much? I don’t know.
Hope this was helpful.
ps – I do think that there is a bit of trivializing or not giving enough credit to how helpful a buyers agent can be through the escrow process for a buyer but I think I would be swimming, or typing against the tide so I will not bother going down that road. If you want me to I will, just ask.
SD Realtor
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