[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Ex-SD –

Look… this house is a perfect case study isn’t it? 5 offers on a site unseen home. That is not cash flowing…

Now would you touch it? No. Would your friends touch it? I guess not.

However 5 people have and the seller has not even submitted his paperwork yet!

I am or would not call you stupid at all. I am just saying that it is a speculative argument that is in the eye of the beholder. That your opinion and your friends opinions do not cover or speak for many many others. You see what I am saying?

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field. Opportunities like this abound for people who have money parked. Again, I do not think it will prop up the market but I do think there will be an effect. Again, not all people use the same metric as you or others do. The home may not need to cash flow for them, the home may not need to have carrying costs that equal rent. Do you see what I am saying?

I think a general fault is that everyone measures opportunity by the same metric.

Look your argument about loans given out to anyone is THE EXACT reason for the bubble. Bubbles are not caused by well to do people buying nicer properties. They are caused more by people buying things the CANNOT afford. By fervent purchases and such. Bright people who are wealthy, who have money now parked most likely were long gone by 03 or 04. Sure some of them purchased in the bubble but that was not to flip or invest, that was most likely to live in or to act as a shelter or to give to kids or family members.

I guess my point is not being well made.

Look I understand your point and your thought process… Perhaps it will happen in that manner for all neighborhoods alike, same price drop, same window of opportunity for everyone. I don’t see that. I see narrower windows of opportunity that will vary by neighborhoods and different depreciations as well.

SD Realtor

ps – EX-SD I am not saying your opinion does not make sense about not purchasing until the median/income ratio falls in line because it does…. I would just be more refined… For instance you cannot use the median income of San Diego County for the purchase of a home in this particular subdivision. A more accurate measure would be to find the median income of the homeowners in the subdivision and do it that way.

sdr – That sheister totally gaffed the keller williams agent. Did you see the cancellation was made after only I think 31 days…

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