short sale in encinitas ranch – good value?

[lu]

What do folks think about this listing?

645 Brae Mar Court, Encinitas, CA

It’s shown as for sale on zillow for $995K but it’s actually now a short sale owned by WaMu — going for $800K. The last sale was for $1.2M in Jan of ’07 (0% down of course).

That’s a 33% haircut — any thoughts on whether that brings the property back down to “fair value”? It looks like the 2003 price point was hovering around $750K or so.

The comps on zillow all show upwards of $1M, even up to $1.5M.

Any thoughts from the realtors out there?

– Lu

[Anonymous]

If it’s owned by WaMu it is not a short sale.

It’s an REO.

You know, you can tune a piano, but you can’t tune a fish.

[SD Realtor]

Colombo I can honestly say I have never heard that quote before!

I was cracking up.

D Realtor

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

SDR,

That quote is stolen from REO Speedwagon, it is not original

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

SDR,

That quote is stolen from REO Speedwagon, it is not original

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

SDR,

That quote is stolen from REO Speedwagon, it is not original

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

SDR,

That quote is stolen from REO Speedwagon, it is not original

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

SDR,

That quote is stolen from REO Speedwagon, it is not original

[SD Realtor]

Colombo I can honestly say I have never heard that quote before!

I was cracking up.

D Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Colombo I can honestly say I have never heard that quote before!

I was cracking up.

D Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Colombo I can honestly say I have never heard that quote before!

I was cracking up.

D Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Colombo I can honestly say I have never heard that quote before!

I was cracking up.

D Realtor

[Anonymous]

If it’s owned by WaMu it is not a short sale.

It’s an REO.

You know, you can tune a piano, but you can’t tune a fish.

[Anonymous]

If it’s owned by WaMu it is not a short sale.

It’s an REO.

You know, you can tune a piano, but you can’t tune a fish.

[Anonymous]

If it’s owned by WaMu it is not a short sale.

It’s an REO.

You know, you can tune a piano, but you can’t tune a fish.

[Anonymous]

If it’s owned by WaMu it is not a short sale.

It’s an REO.

You know, you can tune a piano, but you can’t tune a fish.

[PadreBrian]

2003 price point was hovering around $750K

If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.

[RatherOpinionated]

“If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.”

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Your contrarian troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: I beg to differ. I say that prices will fall back to a minimum of 2000 levels and most likely to 1998 (or lower). If the liars can’t get loans and a decent credit score, proof of income and a reasonable down payment will now be required, just who do you think is going to line up and buy all of this inventory that is already on the market, much less, what’s going to hit the market over the next three years?

BTW: You write exactly like another troll who’s been posting on this forum for the last couple of weeks under various names.
You would be trying to rent out a crap hole of a home near SDSU, would you? 🙂

[RatherOpinionated]

Ex-Sd – you are so far behind the times. I think that has been made clear for some time now.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[Ex-SD]

Well, EXCUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEE ME!
🙂

I thought so. Troll away till your heart’s content.

[Ex-SD]

Well, EXCUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEE ME!
🙂

I thought so. Troll away till your heart’s content.

[Ex-SD]

Well, EXCUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEE ME!
🙂

I thought so. Troll away till your heart’s content.

[Ex-SD]

Well, EXCUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEE ME!
🙂

I thought so. Troll away till your heart’s content.

[Ex-SD]

Well, EXCUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEE ME!
🙂

I thought so. Troll away till your heart’s content.

[RatherOpinionated]

Ex-Sd – you are so far behind the times. I think that has been made clear for some time now.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Ex-Sd – you are so far behind the times. I think that has been made clear for some time now.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Ex-Sd – you are so far behind the times. I think that has been made clear for some time now.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Ex-Sd – you are so far behind the times. I think that has been made clear for some time now.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[sdrealtor]

EX-SD,
If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

Do you honestly believe prices will reach those levels? There are a lot of my neighbors (Drs. lawyers, execs, business owners, wealthy retirees etc. ) that would buy every one of them well before they approached those levels as investments.

[RatherOpinionated]

Thank you sdrealtor. Ex-SD himself believes prices will reach those levels, but by no means does that mean they will. As you just stated, you and all your neighbors will snap them up well before they get anywhere near those levels.

Even at 2003 prices where they are now (right), they are not overpriced for the quality of homeowner in the area.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[sdrealtor]

If they reached 2001 prices I know that I would be “all in”. I’d buy 3 in my hood and have the assets to easily do so.

[RatherOpinionated]

BTW, here’s an additional scoop on the Brae Mar listing in this post:

“Offer must be made sight unseen. There is an uncooperative occupant who refuses to give access, and any sale will be subject to the rights of the current occupants(s) until lease ends in April, 2008.”

As of september, loan is in default $23,896

BTW, where do you show that WAMU owns it? Looks like short sale to me.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[SD Realtor]

If it is lender owned the tax roll on Realist does not indicate that.

To echo what RO said, the tax roll only indicates a NOD has been filed on it. Not only is it not lender owned there has not been a NOT filed yet.

Guys please can we at least say things like, “I think it is lender owned” or something to that effect if you are just making a guess or speculating on something.

Is it that hard to do?

*******

According to the listing agent currently there are 5 offers in on this home and they are all in the price range. New offers will only be sent to the lender that are in the upper end of the price range. Nothing has been sent to the lender, nor has the seller generated the documentation needed for the short sale package. So in essence they are simply collecting offers. Prospective buyers will get to look at the home after the lender has accepted any offer.

********

The NOD amount is 23896 but it was filed in September so it has most likely grown since then. The purchase price was 1.2M back in January of 07 and it was 100% financed. The NOD was filed on the 960k first. I would imagine there is or will be a NOD on the second but the second is out of luck.

I would say there is a bit of fishiness with regards to the original purchase. Okay the listing was listed with Keller Williams last year at 1.2M. Then on 1/9/07 the listing was cancelled. Then the home was sold (not through Sandicor so it was most likely a FSBO) at 1.2M on 1/18/07. Looks like the Keller Williams agent got screwed. Looks like the buyer got screwed (unless this was a fraud scam… and no I am not saying it was… it could be your standard back door deal) but again, there are not really any comps back at that time that support 1.2M for that home. At least not any that I can see. sdrealtor perhaps you can correlate it.

There is another sale at 610 Brae Mar on 1/16/07 of a home with a larger sf (not much but a little) at 1.050M.

**********

Now I think there is still an overtone of denial with regards to just how much money is on the sidelines here in town. I don’t mean just lots of kabillioniare types… Just people who have money… maybe they are engineers or attorneys or doctors or whatever… The point is that they have money and it is on the sidelines and when they see good deals like this or others they will pounce. They may not by a great deal (with the same ratio loss) in say San Marcos or the college area, but stuff like this? Absolutely. Do I wish properties like this would hit 98 levels? Of course. Do I believe they will? Not at all.

Another point to make is that first off, since 1998 astounding amounts of money have been made. Second, the wealth concentration is still highly uneven. The small majority owns alot of cash. Those people are smart and they will be the ones that buy these properties. They may not even wait for them to cash flow because they may purchase the property for an appreciation play. I am just trying to be realistic. Yes my statements are speculative and no I am not one of them sitting on the sidelines with 7 figures worth of cash laying around. Do I know many like that though? Yes I do.

I could very much be proven wrong and maybe there will be enough housing in highly desired areas like this to exhaust all those pockets… Under conditions like we have now I just don’t see it. What we would need to see would be substantial employment reduction in the engineering, biotech and medical sectors.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

FYI, this is the property that was sold by the sleezy mortgage broker we talked about a couple weeks ago.

[sdrealtor]

FYI, this is the property that was sold by the sleezy mortgage broker we talked about a couple weeks ago.

[sdrealtor]

FYI, this is the property that was sold by the sleezy mortgage broker we talked about a couple weeks ago.

[sdrealtor]

FYI, this is the property that was sold by the sleezy mortgage broker we talked about a couple weeks ago.

[sdrealtor]

FYI, this is the property that was sold by the sleezy mortgage broker we talked about a couple weeks ago.

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: So, you think that people who are sitting on a wad of cash are going to throw it at the housing market? I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income. Call me stupid if you wish but there is a large house of cards that is steadily falling as I type and throwing money at that house of cards until it reaches a level that is monetarily sane just doesn’t make any sense to me.
If the average Joe Blow can’t afford a home in SoCal because he can’t qualify for an average home because they’re priced ridiculously high, who’s going to purchase all of these homes……….and how will they purchase them……………….and why will they purchase them if they’re over-priced? Doesn’t make any sense to me. When they were giving loans to people with marginal credit and the only qualification was that they could fog up a mirror, sign their X on the dotted line and lie about their income, it was a different matter. But that ain’t the case any more, is it?

[sdrealtor]

” I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income.”

Birds of a feather……

[RatherOpinionated]

Birds of a feather rent forever.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: You’re new to the forum so you’re not aware that I lived in SD for over 30 years. I saw the “perfect storm” forming in the real estate market in SoCal and sold my home and left the state in the spring of 2005. I bought a home in Greenville, South Carolina which has the lowest percentage of foreclosures of any market in the entire country. This area (along with many, many other areas of the country) did not get caught up in the frenzy of idiocy that took place in CA with housing prices and you can buy one hell of a nice home for $225-$250k and if you jump to the $325-$350 range, you can live exceptionally well. If prices fall enough, I’ll probably move back to San Diego but if they don’t, it’s no skin off my ass since I’m retired and set for life. However, my youngest son insists on staying in San Diego and makes $75k a year and can’t afford a decent SFR. To me, this is ludicrous because he can easily get employed here, make approximately the same amount of money and afford a nice home.
Thus, my interest in the housing market in SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

BTW: One of the people that I referred to who has a wad of money and would not invest at this time in the SoCal housing market used to own a luxury condo in the Meridian, a 5000 sq. ft. home in Palm Springs and a 4000 sq. ft home in La Jolla. (all fully paid for) He sold all three around the same time that I did and he also moved to another state. If you think I’m a bear when it comes to housing, you ain’t seen nothing yet. 🙂

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: I also get your point and see your rationale. The only thing that I would point out to you is that during the last crash in CA, the operative word was that it would never hit the beach communities or the high end areas. Well, you and I both know what happened to LaJolla, Beverly Hills, Brentwood, North County, SD, etc, etc etc…………so although at this time, those areas are not getting wacked too hard at all………time will tell if it’s also going to also rain on their parades.

peace 🙂

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

peace to you as well EX-SD. Understand and acknowledge your points as well… As a prospective buyer I hope you are more correct then I am, believe me.

Here is to us getting our properties.

SD Realtor

[RatherOpinionated]

“It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field.”

Perfectly said.

Your “birds of a feather rent forever” troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[zk]

deleted

[zk]

deleted

[zk]

deleted

[zk]

deleted

[zk]

deleted

[RatherOpinionated]

“It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field.”

Perfectly said.

Your “birds of a feather rent forever” troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

“It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field.”

Perfectly said.

Your “birds of a feather rent forever” troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

“It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field.”

Perfectly said.

Your “birds of a feather rent forever” troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

“It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field.”

Perfectly said.

Your “birds of a feather rent forever” troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: I also get your point and see your rationale. The only thing that I would point out to you is that during the last crash in CA, the operative word was that it would never hit the beach communities or the high end areas. Well, you and I both know what happened to LaJolla, Beverly Hills, Brentwood, North County, SD, etc, etc etc…………so although at this time, those areas are not getting wacked too hard at all………time will tell if it’s also going to also rain on their parades.

peace 🙂

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: I also get your point and see your rationale. The only thing that I would point out to you is that during the last crash in CA, the operative word was that it would never hit the beach communities or the high end areas. Well, you and I both know what happened to LaJolla, Beverly Hills, Brentwood, North County, SD, etc, etc etc…………so although at this time, those areas are not getting wacked too hard at all………time will tell if it’s also going to also rain on their parades.

peace 🙂

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: I also get your point and see your rationale. The only thing that I would point out to you is that during the last crash in CA, the operative word was that it would never hit the beach communities or the high end areas. Well, you and I both know what happened to LaJolla, Beverly Hills, Brentwood, North County, SD, etc, etc etc…………so although at this time, those areas are not getting wacked too hard at all………time will tell if it’s also going to also rain on their parades.

peace 🙂

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: I also get your point and see your rationale. The only thing that I would point out to you is that during the last crash in CA, the operative word was that it would never hit the beach communities or the high end areas. Well, you and I both know what happened to LaJolla, Beverly Hills, Brentwood, North County, SD, etc, etc etc…………so although at this time, those areas are not getting wacked too hard at all………time will tell if it’s also going to also rain on their parades.

peace 🙂

[Ex-SD]

BTW: One of the people that I referred to who has a wad of money and would not invest at this time in the SoCal housing market used to own a luxury condo in the Meridian, a 5000 sq. ft. home in Palm Springs and a 4000 sq. ft home in La Jolla. (all fully paid for) He sold all three around the same time that I did and he also moved to another state. If you think I’m a bear when it comes to housing, you ain’t seen nothing yet. 🙂

[Ex-SD]

BTW: One of the people that I referred to who has a wad of money and would not invest at this time in the SoCal housing market used to own a luxury condo in the Meridian, a 5000 sq. ft. home in Palm Springs and a 4000 sq. ft home in La Jolla. (all fully paid for) He sold all three around the same time that I did and he also moved to another state. If you think I’m a bear when it comes to housing, you ain’t seen nothing yet. 🙂

[Ex-SD]

BTW: One of the people that I referred to who has a wad of money and would not invest at this time in the SoCal housing market used to own a luxury condo in the Meridian, a 5000 sq. ft. home in Palm Springs and a 4000 sq. ft home in La Jolla. (all fully paid for) He sold all three around the same time that I did and he also moved to another state. If you think I’m a bear when it comes to housing, you ain’t seen nothing yet. 🙂

[Ex-SD]

BTW: One of the people that I referred to who has a wad of money and would not invest at this time in the SoCal housing market used to own a luxury condo in the Meridian, a 5000 sq. ft. home in Palm Springs and a 4000 sq. ft home in La Jolla. (all fully paid for) He sold all three around the same time that I did and he also moved to another state. If you think I’m a bear when it comes to housing, you ain’t seen nothing yet. 🙂

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: You’re new to the forum so you’re not aware that I lived in SD for over 30 years. I saw the “perfect storm” forming in the real estate market in SoCal and sold my home and left the state in the spring of 2005. I bought a home in Greenville, South Carolina which has the lowest percentage of foreclosures of any market in the entire country. This area (along with many, many other areas of the country) did not get caught up in the frenzy of idiocy that took place in CA with housing prices and you can buy one hell of a nice home for $225-$250k and if you jump to the $325-$350 range, you can live exceptionally well. If prices fall enough, I’ll probably move back to San Diego but if they don’t, it’s no skin off my ass since I’m retired and set for life. However, my youngest son insists on staying in San Diego and makes $75k a year and can’t afford a decent SFR. To me, this is ludicrous because he can easily get employed here, make approximately the same amount of money and afford a nice home.
Thus, my interest in the housing market in SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: You’re new to the forum so you’re not aware that I lived in SD for over 30 years. I saw the “perfect storm” forming in the real estate market in SoCal and sold my home and left the state in the spring of 2005. I bought a home in Greenville, South Carolina which has the lowest percentage of foreclosures of any market in the entire country. This area (along with many, many other areas of the country) did not get caught up in the frenzy of idiocy that took place in CA with housing prices and you can buy one hell of a nice home for $225-$250k and if you jump to the $325-$350 range, you can live exceptionally well. If prices fall enough, I’ll probably move back to San Diego but if they don’t, it’s no skin off my ass since I’m retired and set for life. However, my youngest son insists on staying in San Diego and makes $75k a year and can’t afford a decent SFR. To me, this is ludicrous because he can easily get employed here, make approximately the same amount of money and afford a nice home.
Thus, my interest in the housing market in SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: You’re new to the forum so you’re not aware that I lived in SD for over 30 years. I saw the “perfect storm” forming in the real estate market in SoCal and sold my home and left the state in the spring of 2005. I bought a home in Greenville, South Carolina which has the lowest percentage of foreclosures of any market in the entire country. This area (along with many, many other areas of the country) did not get caught up in the frenzy of idiocy that took place in CA with housing prices and you can buy one hell of a nice home for $225-$250k and if you jump to the $325-$350 range, you can live exceptionally well. If prices fall enough, I’ll probably move back to San Diego but if they don’t, it’s no skin off my ass since I’m retired and set for life. However, my youngest son insists on staying in San Diego and makes $75k a year and can’t afford a decent SFR. To me, this is ludicrous because he can easily get employed here, make approximately the same amount of money and afford a nice home.
Thus, my interest in the housing market in SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: You’re new to the forum so you’re not aware that I lived in SD for over 30 years. I saw the “perfect storm” forming in the real estate market in SoCal and sold my home and left the state in the spring of 2005. I bought a home in Greenville, South Carolina which has the lowest percentage of foreclosures of any market in the entire country. This area (along with many, many other areas of the country) did not get caught up in the frenzy of idiocy that took place in CA with housing prices and you can buy one hell of a nice home for $225-$250k and if you jump to the $325-$350 range, you can live exceptionally well. If prices fall enough, I’ll probably move back to San Diego but if they don’t, it’s no skin off my ass since I’m retired and set for life. However, my youngest son insists on staying in San Diego and makes $75k a year and can’t afford a decent SFR. To me, this is ludicrous because he can easily get employed here, make approximately the same amount of money and afford a nice home.
Thus, my interest in the housing market in SoCal.

[RatherOpinionated]

Birds of a feather rent forever.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Birds of a feather rent forever.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Birds of a feather rent forever.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Birds of a feather rent forever.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Birds of a feather rent forever.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[sdrealtor]

” I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income.”

Birds of a feather……

[sdrealtor]

” I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income.”

Birds of a feather……

[sdrealtor]

” I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income.”

Birds of a feather……

[sdrealtor]

” I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income.”

Birds of a feather……

[sdrealtor]

” I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income.”

Birds of a feather……

[SD Realtor]

Ex-SD –

Look… this house is a perfect case study isn’t it? 5 offers on a site unseen home. That is not cash flowing…

Now would you touch it? No. Would your friends touch it? I guess not.

However 5 people have and the seller has not even submitted his paperwork yet!

I am or would not call you stupid at all. I am just saying that it is a speculative argument that is in the eye of the beholder. That your opinion and your friends opinions do not cover or speak for many many others. You see what I am saying?

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field. Opportunities like this abound for people who have money parked. Again, I do not think it will prop up the market but I do think there will be an effect. Again, not all people use the same metric as you or others do. The home may not need to cash flow for them, the home may not need to have carrying costs that equal rent. Do you see what I am saying?

I think a general fault is that everyone measures opportunity by the same metric.

Look your argument about loans given out to anyone is THE EXACT reason for the bubble. Bubbles are not caused by well to do people buying nicer properties. They are caused more by people buying things the CANNOT afford. By fervent purchases and such. Bright people who are wealthy, who have money now parked most likely were long gone by 03 or 04. Sure some of them purchased in the bubble but that was not to flip or invest, that was most likely to live in or to act as a shelter or to give to kids or family members.

I guess my point is not being well made.

Look I understand your point and your thought process… Perhaps it will happen in that manner for all neighborhoods alike, same price drop, same window of opportunity for everyone. I don’t see that. I see narrower windows of opportunity that will vary by neighborhoods and different depreciations as well.

SD Realtor

ps – EX-SD I am not saying your opinion does not make sense about not purchasing until the median/income ratio falls in line because it does…. I would just be more refined… For instance you cannot use the median income of San Diego County for the purchase of a home in this particular subdivision. A more accurate measure would be to find the median income of the homeowners in the subdivision and do it that way.

sdr – That sheister totally gaffed the keller williams agent. Did you see the cancellation was made after only I think 31 days…

[SD Realtor]

Ex-SD –

Look… this house is a perfect case study isn’t it? 5 offers on a site unseen home. That is not cash flowing…

Now would you touch it? No. Would your friends touch it? I guess not.

However 5 people have and the seller has not even submitted his paperwork yet!

I am or would not call you stupid at all. I am just saying that it is a speculative argument that is in the eye of the beholder. That your opinion and your friends opinions do not cover or speak for many many others. You see what I am saying?

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field. Opportunities like this abound for people who have money parked. Again, I do not think it will prop up the market but I do think there will be an effect. Again, not all people use the same metric as you or others do. The home may not need to cash flow for them, the home may not need to have carrying costs that equal rent. Do you see what I am saying?

I think a general fault is that everyone measures opportunity by the same metric.

Look your argument about loans given out to anyone is THE EXACT reason for the bubble. Bubbles are not caused by well to do people buying nicer properties. They are caused more by people buying things the CANNOT afford. By fervent purchases and such. Bright people who are wealthy, who have money now parked most likely were long gone by 03 or 04. Sure some of them purchased in the bubble but that was not to flip or invest, that was most likely to live in or to act as a shelter or to give to kids or family members.

I guess my point is not being well made.

Look I understand your point and your thought process… Perhaps it will happen in that manner for all neighborhoods alike, same price drop, same window of opportunity for everyone. I don’t see that. I see narrower windows of opportunity that will vary by neighborhoods and different depreciations as well.

SD Realtor

ps – EX-SD I am not saying your opinion does not make sense about not purchasing until the median/income ratio falls in line because it does…. I would just be more refined… For instance you cannot use the median income of San Diego County for the purchase of a home in this particular subdivision. A more accurate measure would be to find the median income of the homeowners in the subdivision and do it that way.

sdr – That sheister totally gaffed the keller williams agent. Did you see the cancellation was made after only I think 31 days…

[SD Realtor]

Ex-SD –

Look… this house is a perfect case study isn’t it? 5 offers on a site unseen home. That is not cash flowing…

Now would you touch it? No. Would your friends touch it? I guess not.

However 5 people have and the seller has not even submitted his paperwork yet!

I am or would not call you stupid at all. I am just saying that it is a speculative argument that is in the eye of the beholder. That your opinion and your friends opinions do not cover or speak for many many others. You see what I am saying?

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field. Opportunities like this abound for people who have money parked. Again, I do not think it will prop up the market but I do think there will be an effect. Again, not all people use the same metric as you or others do. The home may not need to cash flow for them, the home may not need to have carrying costs that equal rent. Do you see what I am saying?

I think a general fault is that everyone measures opportunity by the same metric.

Look your argument about loans given out to anyone is THE EXACT reason for the bubble. Bubbles are not caused by well to do people buying nicer properties. They are caused more by people buying things the CANNOT afford. By fervent purchases and such. Bright people who are wealthy, who have money now parked most likely were long gone by 03 or 04. Sure some of them purchased in the bubble but that was not to flip or invest, that was most likely to live in or to act as a shelter or to give to kids or family members.

I guess my point is not being well made.

Look I understand your point and your thought process… Perhaps it will happen in that manner for all neighborhoods alike, same price drop, same window of opportunity for everyone. I don’t see that. I see narrower windows of opportunity that will vary by neighborhoods and different depreciations as well.

SD Realtor

ps – EX-SD I am not saying your opinion does not make sense about not purchasing until the median/income ratio falls in line because it does…. I would just be more refined… For instance you cannot use the median income of San Diego County for the purchase of a home in this particular subdivision. A more accurate measure would be to find the median income of the homeowners in the subdivision and do it that way.

sdr – That sheister totally gaffed the keller williams agent. Did you see the cancellation was made after only I think 31 days…

[SD Realtor]

Ex-SD –

Look… this house is a perfect case study isn’t it? 5 offers on a site unseen home. That is not cash flowing…

Now would you touch it? No. Would your friends touch it? I guess not.

However 5 people have and the seller has not even submitted his paperwork yet!

I am or would not call you stupid at all. I am just saying that it is a speculative argument that is in the eye of the beholder. That your opinion and your friends opinions do not cover or speak for many many others. You see what I am saying?

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field. Opportunities like this abound for people who have money parked. Again, I do not think it will prop up the market but I do think there will be an effect. Again, not all people use the same metric as you or others do. The home may not need to cash flow for them, the home may not need to have carrying costs that equal rent. Do you see what I am saying?

I think a general fault is that everyone measures opportunity by the same metric.

Look your argument about loans given out to anyone is THE EXACT reason for the bubble. Bubbles are not caused by well to do people buying nicer properties. They are caused more by people buying things the CANNOT afford. By fervent purchases and such. Bright people who are wealthy, who have money now parked most likely were long gone by 03 or 04. Sure some of them purchased in the bubble but that was not to flip or invest, that was most likely to live in or to act as a shelter or to give to kids or family members.

I guess my point is not being well made.

Look I understand your point and your thought process… Perhaps it will happen in that manner for all neighborhoods alike, same price drop, same window of opportunity for everyone. I don’t see that. I see narrower windows of opportunity that will vary by neighborhoods and different depreciations as well.

SD Realtor

ps – EX-SD I am not saying your opinion does not make sense about not purchasing until the median/income ratio falls in line because it does…. I would just be more refined… For instance you cannot use the median income of San Diego County for the purchase of a home in this particular subdivision. A more accurate measure would be to find the median income of the homeowners in the subdivision and do it that way.

sdr – That sheister totally gaffed the keller williams agent. Did you see the cancellation was made after only I think 31 days…

[SD Realtor]

Ex-SD –

Look… this house is a perfect case study isn’t it? 5 offers on a site unseen home. That is not cash flowing…

Now would you touch it? No. Would your friends touch it? I guess not.

However 5 people have and the seller has not even submitted his paperwork yet!

I am or would not call you stupid at all. I am just saying that it is a speculative argument that is in the eye of the beholder. That your opinion and your friends opinions do not cover or speak for many many others. You see what I am saying?

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

It is actually my belief that depreciation cycles provide much more ample opportunity for the rich to get richer, then to level the playing field. Opportunities like this abound for people who have money parked. Again, I do not think it will prop up the market but I do think there will be an effect. Again, not all people use the same metric as you or others do. The home may not need to cash flow for them, the home may not need to have carrying costs that equal rent. Do you see what I am saying?

I think a general fault is that everyone measures opportunity by the same metric.

Look your argument about loans given out to anyone is THE EXACT reason for the bubble. Bubbles are not caused by well to do people buying nicer properties. They are caused more by people buying things the CANNOT afford. By fervent purchases and such. Bright people who are wealthy, who have money now parked most likely were long gone by 03 or 04. Sure some of them purchased in the bubble but that was not to flip or invest, that was most likely to live in or to act as a shelter or to give to kids or family members.

I guess my point is not being well made.

Look I understand your point and your thought process… Perhaps it will happen in that manner for all neighborhoods alike, same price drop, same window of opportunity for everyone. I don’t see that. I see narrower windows of opportunity that will vary by neighborhoods and different depreciations as well.

SD Realtor

ps – EX-SD I am not saying your opinion does not make sense about not purchasing until the median/income ratio falls in line because it does…. I would just be more refined… For instance you cannot use the median income of San Diego County for the purchase of a home in this particular subdivision. A more accurate measure would be to find the median income of the homeowners in the subdivision and do it that way.

sdr – That sheister totally gaffed the keller williams agent. Did you see the cancellation was made after only I think 31 days…

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: So, you think that people who are sitting on a wad of cash are going to throw it at the housing market? I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income. Call me stupid if you wish but there is a large house of cards that is steadily falling as I type and throwing money at that house of cards until it reaches a level that is monetarily sane just doesn’t make any sense to me.
If the average Joe Blow can’t afford a home in SoCal because he can’t qualify for an average home because they’re priced ridiculously high, who’s going to purchase all of these homes……….and how will they purchase them……………….and why will they purchase them if they’re over-priced? Doesn’t make any sense to me. When they were giving loans to people with marginal credit and the only qualification was that they could fog up a mirror, sign their X on the dotted line and lie about their income, it was a different matter. But that ain’t the case any more, is it?

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: So, you think that people who are sitting on a wad of cash are going to throw it at the housing market? I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income. Call me stupid if you wish but there is a large house of cards that is steadily falling as I type and throwing money at that house of cards until it reaches a level that is monetarily sane just doesn’t make any sense to me.
If the average Joe Blow can’t afford a home in SoCal because he can’t qualify for an average home because they’re priced ridiculously high, who’s going to purchase all of these homes……….and how will they purchase them……………….and why will they purchase them if they’re over-priced? Doesn’t make any sense to me. When they were giving loans to people with marginal credit and the only qualification was that they could fog up a mirror, sign their X on the dotted line and lie about their income, it was a different matter. But that ain’t the case any more, is it?

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: So, you think that people who are sitting on a wad of cash are going to throw it at the housing market? I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income. Call me stupid if you wish but there is a large house of cards that is steadily falling as I type and throwing money at that house of cards until it reaches a level that is monetarily sane just doesn’t make any sense to me.
If the average Joe Blow can’t afford a home in SoCal because he can’t qualify for an average home because they’re priced ridiculously high, who’s going to purchase all of these homes……….and how will they purchase them……………….and why will they purchase them if they’re over-priced? Doesn’t make any sense to me. When they were giving loans to people with marginal credit and the only qualification was that they could fog up a mirror, sign their X on the dotted line and lie about their income, it was a different matter. But that ain’t the case any more, is it?

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: So, you think that people who are sitting on a wad of cash are going to throw it at the housing market? I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income. Call me stupid if you wish but there is a large house of cards that is steadily falling as I type and throwing money at that house of cards until it reaches a level that is monetarily sane just doesn’t make any sense to me.
If the average Joe Blow can’t afford a home in SoCal because he can’t qualify for an average home because they’re priced ridiculously high, who’s going to purchase all of these homes……….and how will they purchase them……………….and why will they purchase them if they’re over-priced? Doesn’t make any sense to me. When they were giving loans to people with marginal credit and the only qualification was that they could fog up a mirror, sign their X on the dotted line and lie about their income, it was a different matter. But that ain’t the case any more, is it?

[Ex-SD]

SD Realtor: So, you think that people who are sitting on a wad of cash are going to throw it at the housing market? I am sitting on a large amount of liquid assets and I wouldn’t throw one nickel at the SoCal housing market until prices came into line with income. I have friends who have much more than myself and they also would not consider putting any money in the SoCal housing market until prices are in alignment with income. Call me stupid if you wish but there is a large house of cards that is steadily falling as I type and throwing money at that house of cards until it reaches a level that is monetarily sane just doesn’t make any sense to me.
If the average Joe Blow can’t afford a home in SoCal because he can’t qualify for an average home because they’re priced ridiculously high, who’s going to purchase all of these homes……….and how will they purchase them……………….and why will they purchase them if they’re over-priced? Doesn’t make any sense to me. When they were giving loans to people with marginal credit and the only qualification was that they could fog up a mirror, sign their X on the dotted line and lie about their income, it was a different matter. But that ain’t the case any more, is it?

[SD Realtor]

If it is lender owned the tax roll on Realist does not indicate that.

To echo what RO said, the tax roll only indicates a NOD has been filed on it. Not only is it not lender owned there has not been a NOT filed yet.

Guys please can we at least say things like, “I think it is lender owned” or something to that effect if you are just making a guess or speculating on something.

Is it that hard to do?

*******

According to the listing agent currently there are 5 offers in on this home and they are all in the price range. New offers will only be sent to the lender that are in the upper end of the price range. Nothing has been sent to the lender, nor has the seller generated the documentation needed for the short sale package. So in essence they are simply collecting offers. Prospective buyers will get to look at the home after the lender has accepted any offer.

********

The NOD amount is 23896 but it was filed in September so it has most likely grown since then. The purchase price was 1.2M back in January of 07 and it was 100% financed. The NOD was filed on the 960k first. I would imagine there is or will be a NOD on the second but the second is out of luck.

I would say there is a bit of fishiness with regards to the original purchase. Okay the listing was listed with Keller Williams last year at 1.2M. Then on 1/9/07 the listing was cancelled. Then the home was sold (not through Sandicor so it was most likely a FSBO) at 1.2M on 1/18/07. Looks like the Keller Williams agent got screwed. Looks like the buyer got screwed (unless this was a fraud scam… and no I am not saying it was… it could be your standard back door deal) but again, there are not really any comps back at that time that support 1.2M for that home. At least not any that I can see. sdrealtor perhaps you can correlate it.

There is another sale at 610 Brae Mar on 1/16/07 of a home with a larger sf (not much but a little) at 1.050M.

**********

Now I think there is still an overtone of denial with regards to just how much money is on the sidelines here in town. I don’t mean just lots of kabillioniare types… Just people who have money… maybe they are engineers or attorneys or doctors or whatever… The point is that they have money and it is on the sidelines and when they see good deals like this or others they will pounce. They may not by a great deal (with the same ratio loss) in say San Marcos or the college area, but stuff like this? Absolutely. Do I wish properties like this would hit 98 levels? Of course. Do I believe they will? Not at all.

Another point to make is that first off, since 1998 astounding amounts of money have been made. Second, the wealth concentration is still highly uneven. The small majority owns alot of cash. Those people are smart and they will be the ones that buy these properties. They may not even wait for them to cash flow because they may purchase the property for an appreciation play. I am just trying to be realistic. Yes my statements are speculative and no I am not one of them sitting on the sidelines with 7 figures worth of cash laying around. Do I know many like that though? Yes I do.

I could very much be proven wrong and maybe there will be enough housing in highly desired areas like this to exhaust all those pockets… Under conditions like we have now I just don’t see it. What we would need to see would be substantial employment reduction in the engineering, biotech and medical sectors.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If it is lender owned the tax roll on Realist does not indicate that.

To echo what RO said, the tax roll only indicates a NOD has been filed on it. Not only is it not lender owned there has not been a NOT filed yet.

Guys please can we at least say things like, “I think it is lender owned” or something to that effect if you are just making a guess or speculating on something.

Is it that hard to do?

*******

According to the listing agent currently there are 5 offers in on this home and they are all in the price range. New offers will only be sent to the lender that are in the upper end of the price range. Nothing has been sent to the lender, nor has the seller generated the documentation needed for the short sale package. So in essence they are simply collecting offers. Prospective buyers will get to look at the home after the lender has accepted any offer.

********

The NOD amount is 23896 but it was filed in September so it has most likely grown since then. The purchase price was 1.2M back in January of 07 and it was 100% financed. The NOD was filed on the 960k first. I would imagine there is or will be a NOD on the second but the second is out of luck.

I would say there is a bit of fishiness with regards to the original purchase. Okay the listing was listed with Keller Williams last year at 1.2M. Then on 1/9/07 the listing was cancelled. Then the home was sold (not through Sandicor so it was most likely a FSBO) at 1.2M on 1/18/07. Looks like the Keller Williams agent got screwed. Looks like the buyer got screwed (unless this was a fraud scam… and no I am not saying it was… it could be your standard back door deal) but again, there are not really any comps back at that time that support 1.2M for that home. At least not any that I can see. sdrealtor perhaps you can correlate it.

There is another sale at 610 Brae Mar on 1/16/07 of a home with a larger sf (not much but a little) at 1.050M.

**********

Now I think there is still an overtone of denial with regards to just how much money is on the sidelines here in town. I don’t mean just lots of kabillioniare types… Just people who have money… maybe they are engineers or attorneys or doctors or whatever… The point is that they have money and it is on the sidelines and when they see good deals like this or others they will pounce. They may not by a great deal (with the same ratio loss) in say San Marcos or the college area, but stuff like this? Absolutely. Do I wish properties like this would hit 98 levels? Of course. Do I believe they will? Not at all.

Another point to make is that first off, since 1998 astounding amounts of money have been made. Second, the wealth concentration is still highly uneven. The small majority owns alot of cash. Those people are smart and they will be the ones that buy these properties. They may not even wait for them to cash flow because they may purchase the property for an appreciation play. I am just trying to be realistic. Yes my statements are speculative and no I am not one of them sitting on the sidelines with 7 figures worth of cash laying around. Do I know many like that though? Yes I do.

I could very much be proven wrong and maybe there will be enough housing in highly desired areas like this to exhaust all those pockets… Under conditions like we have now I just don’t see it. What we would need to see would be substantial employment reduction in the engineering, biotech and medical sectors.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If it is lender owned the tax roll on Realist does not indicate that.

To echo what RO said, the tax roll only indicates a NOD has been filed on it. Not only is it not lender owned there has not been a NOT filed yet.

Guys please can we at least say things like, “I think it is lender owned” or something to that effect if you are just making a guess or speculating on something.

Is it that hard to do?

*******

According to the listing agent currently there are 5 offers in on this home and they are all in the price range. New offers will only be sent to the lender that are in the upper end of the price range. Nothing has been sent to the lender, nor has the seller generated the documentation needed for the short sale package. So in essence they are simply collecting offers. Prospective buyers will get to look at the home after the lender has accepted any offer.

********

The NOD amount is 23896 but it was filed in September so it has most likely grown since then. The purchase price was 1.2M back in January of 07 and it was 100% financed. The NOD was filed on the 960k first. I would imagine there is or will be a NOD on the second but the second is out of luck.

I would say there is a bit of fishiness with regards to the original purchase. Okay the listing was listed with Keller Williams last year at 1.2M. Then on 1/9/07 the listing was cancelled. Then the home was sold (not through Sandicor so it was most likely a FSBO) at 1.2M on 1/18/07. Looks like the Keller Williams agent got screwed. Looks like the buyer got screwed (unless this was a fraud scam… and no I am not saying it was… it could be your standard back door deal) but again, there are not really any comps back at that time that support 1.2M for that home. At least not any that I can see. sdrealtor perhaps you can correlate it.

There is another sale at 610 Brae Mar on 1/16/07 of a home with a larger sf (not much but a little) at 1.050M.

**********

Now I think there is still an overtone of denial with regards to just how much money is on the sidelines here in town. I don’t mean just lots of kabillioniare types… Just people who have money… maybe they are engineers or attorneys or doctors or whatever… The point is that they have money and it is on the sidelines and when they see good deals like this or others they will pounce. They may not by a great deal (with the same ratio loss) in say San Marcos or the college area, but stuff like this? Absolutely. Do I wish properties like this would hit 98 levels? Of course. Do I believe they will? Not at all.

Another point to make is that first off, since 1998 astounding amounts of money have been made. Second, the wealth concentration is still highly uneven. The small majority owns alot of cash. Those people are smart and they will be the ones that buy these properties. They may not even wait for them to cash flow because they may purchase the property for an appreciation play. I am just trying to be realistic. Yes my statements are speculative and no I am not one of them sitting on the sidelines with 7 figures worth of cash laying around. Do I know many like that though? Yes I do.

I could very much be proven wrong and maybe there will be enough housing in highly desired areas like this to exhaust all those pockets… Under conditions like we have now I just don’t see it. What we would need to see would be substantial employment reduction in the engineering, biotech and medical sectors.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If it is lender owned the tax roll on Realist does not indicate that.

To echo what RO said, the tax roll only indicates a NOD has been filed on it. Not only is it not lender owned there has not been a NOT filed yet.

Guys please can we at least say things like, “I think it is lender owned” or something to that effect if you are just making a guess or speculating on something.

Is it that hard to do?

*******

According to the listing agent currently there are 5 offers in on this home and they are all in the price range. New offers will only be sent to the lender that are in the upper end of the price range. Nothing has been sent to the lender, nor has the seller generated the documentation needed for the short sale package. So in essence they are simply collecting offers. Prospective buyers will get to look at the home after the lender has accepted any offer.

********

The NOD amount is 23896 but it was filed in September so it has most likely grown since then. The purchase price was 1.2M back in January of 07 and it was 100% financed. The NOD was filed on the 960k first. I would imagine there is or will be a NOD on the second but the second is out of luck.

I would say there is a bit of fishiness with regards to the original purchase. Okay the listing was listed with Keller Williams last year at 1.2M. Then on 1/9/07 the listing was cancelled. Then the home was sold (not through Sandicor so it was most likely a FSBO) at 1.2M on 1/18/07. Looks like the Keller Williams agent got screwed. Looks like the buyer got screwed (unless this was a fraud scam… and no I am not saying it was… it could be your standard back door deal) but again, there are not really any comps back at that time that support 1.2M for that home. At least not any that I can see. sdrealtor perhaps you can correlate it.

There is another sale at 610 Brae Mar on 1/16/07 of a home with a larger sf (not much but a little) at 1.050M.

**********

Now I think there is still an overtone of denial with regards to just how much money is on the sidelines here in town. I don’t mean just lots of kabillioniare types… Just people who have money… maybe they are engineers or attorneys or doctors or whatever… The point is that they have money and it is on the sidelines and when they see good deals like this or others they will pounce. They may not by a great deal (with the same ratio loss) in say San Marcos or the college area, but stuff like this? Absolutely. Do I wish properties like this would hit 98 levels? Of course. Do I believe they will? Not at all.

Another point to make is that first off, since 1998 astounding amounts of money have been made. Second, the wealth concentration is still highly uneven. The small majority owns alot of cash. Those people are smart and they will be the ones that buy these properties. They may not even wait for them to cash flow because they may purchase the property for an appreciation play. I am just trying to be realistic. Yes my statements are speculative and no I am not one of them sitting on the sidelines with 7 figures worth of cash laying around. Do I know many like that though? Yes I do.

I could very much be proven wrong and maybe there will be enough housing in highly desired areas like this to exhaust all those pockets… Under conditions like we have now I just don’t see it. What we would need to see would be substantial employment reduction in the engineering, biotech and medical sectors.

SD Realtor

[RatherOpinionated]

BTW, here’s an additional scoop on the Brae Mar listing in this post:

“Offer must be made sight unseen. There is an uncooperative occupant who refuses to give access, and any sale will be subject to the rights of the current occupants(s) until lease ends in April, 2008.”

As of september, loan is in default $23,896

BTW, where do you show that WAMU owns it? Looks like short sale to me.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

BTW, here’s an additional scoop on the Brae Mar listing in this post:

“Offer must be made sight unseen. There is an uncooperative occupant who refuses to give access, and any sale will be subject to the rights of the current occupants(s) until lease ends in April, 2008.”

As of september, loan is in default $23,896

BTW, where do you show that WAMU owns it? Looks like short sale to me.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

BTW, here’s an additional scoop on the Brae Mar listing in this post:

“Offer must be made sight unseen. There is an uncooperative occupant who refuses to give access, and any sale will be subject to the rights of the current occupants(s) until lease ends in April, 2008.”

As of september, loan is in default $23,896

BTW, where do you show that WAMU owns it? Looks like short sale to me.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

BTW, here’s an additional scoop on the Brae Mar listing in this post:

“Offer must be made sight unseen. There is an uncooperative occupant who refuses to give access, and any sale will be subject to the rights of the current occupants(s) until lease ends in April, 2008.”

As of september, loan is in default $23,896

BTW, where do you show that WAMU owns it? Looks like short sale to me.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[sdrealtor]

If they reached 2001 prices I know that I would be “all in”. I’d buy 3 in my hood and have the assets to easily do so.

[sdrealtor]

If they reached 2001 prices I know that I would be “all in”. I’d buy 3 in my hood and have the assets to easily do so.

[sdrealtor]

If they reached 2001 prices I know that I would be “all in”. I’d buy 3 in my hood and have the assets to easily do so.

[sdrealtor]

If they reached 2001 prices I know that I would be “all in”. I’d buy 3 in my hood and have the assets to easily do so.

[RatherOpinionated]

Thank you sdrealtor. Ex-SD himself believes prices will reach those levels, but by no means does that mean they will. As you just stated, you and all your neighbors will snap them up well before they get anywhere near those levels.

Even at 2003 prices where they are now (right), they are not overpriced for the quality of homeowner in the area.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Thank you sdrealtor. Ex-SD himself believes prices will reach those levels, but by no means does that mean they will. As you just stated, you and all your neighbors will snap them up well before they get anywhere near those levels.

Even at 2003 prices where they are now (right), they are not overpriced for the quality of homeowner in the area.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Thank you sdrealtor. Ex-SD himself believes prices will reach those levels, but by no means does that mean they will. As you just stated, you and all your neighbors will snap them up well before they get anywhere near those levels.

Even at 2003 prices where they are now (right), they are not overpriced for the quality of homeowner in the area.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

Thank you sdrealtor. Ex-SD himself believes prices will reach those levels, but by no means does that mean they will. As you just stated, you and all your neighbors will snap them up well before they get anywhere near those levels.

Even at 2003 prices where they are now (right), they are not overpriced for the quality of homeowner in the area.

[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

Encinitas has above average incomes in this county. No argument about it. It’s just not so wealthy as to support seven-figure valuations east of 5 without exotic financing.

This particular street was built and sold off in 2003 at a median price of $682,000. You didn’t have to be a lawyer or a surgeon to “afford” that. Monthly payment on an interest-only mortgage of $682,000 is less than 3K/month.

You are a realtor, I believe you have the capability to look up existing mortgages on homes. Could you please check these houses.

621 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 681k)
642 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 682k)
655 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 687k)
622 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2005 for 840k)
610 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2007 for 1050k)

I’ll venture a guess. All five were financed using interest-only mortgages. Furthermore, the latter two are negative amortization loans.

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.

You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.

Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.

In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.

[SD Realtor]

I did use current rates. I thought your intent was to show that these homes could be used to illustrate a viable purchase by Joe Blow today, not back in 2003.

I guess we are going in different directions, mine being that Joe Blow is losing ground in the overall race and that his housing selection is indeed shrinking.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

The original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”

In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)

Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)

I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.

[SD Realtor]

So I will try one last time to put my point across. Seems as if I said, I am failing miserably.

1 – I am not advocating to buy now. Nor am I saying this is a good deal or is not a good deal.

2 – That the uneven distribution of wealth will not only continue, but depreciation cycles like this will benefit those with wealth more then those without wealth.

3 – That of these same people with wealth may indeed not share the same criteria to buy a home that you or I do. They may wait, they may not wait. Like you, it doesn’t matter to me what they do. I don’t base my purchase criteria on other peoples actions.

4 – That bubbles are not created by wealthy people buying properties and/or catching knives.

5 – That tighter lending standards will indeed lead to a healthier market, but will be more beneficial to those with wealth then those without it or those at a median income level.

6 – That because of all of the above, people with wealth are better positioned to re-enter the real estate market and will thus do so at an earlier point then more prudent buyers. Thus they (the wealthier) will more then likely have more to choose from and will get the best cracks.

7 – That what was affordable to some in 2003 is LESS affordable or shall I say affordable to less people today and even less in the future.

Is this a little bit more clear?

[SD Realtor]

So I will try one last time to put my point across. Seems as if I said, I am failing miserably.

1 – I am not advocating to buy now. Nor am I saying this is a good deal or is not a good deal.

2 – That the uneven distribution of wealth will not only continue, but depreciation cycles like this will benefit those with wealth more then those without wealth.

3 – That of these same people with wealth may indeed not share the same criteria to buy a home that you or I do. They may wait, they may not wait. Like you, it doesn’t matter to me what they do. I don’t base my purchase criteria on other peoples actions.

4 – That bubbles are not created by wealthy people buying properties and/or catching knives.

5 – That tighter lending standards will indeed lead to a healthier market, but will be more beneficial to those with wealth then those without it or those at a median income level.

6 – That because of all of the above, people with wealth are better positioned to re-enter the real estate market and will thus do so at an earlier point then more prudent buyers. Thus they (the wealthier) will more then likely have more to choose from and will get the best cracks.

7 – That what was affordable to some in 2003 is LESS affordable or shall I say affordable to less people today and even less in the future.

Is this a little bit more clear?

[SD Realtor]

So I will try one last time to put my point across. Seems as if I said, I am failing miserably.

1 – I am not advocating to buy now. Nor am I saying this is a good deal or is not a good deal.

2 – That the uneven distribution of wealth will not only continue, but depreciation cycles like this will benefit those with wealth more then those without wealth.

3 – That of these same people with wealth may indeed not share the same criteria to buy a home that you or I do. They may wait, they may not wait. Like you, it doesn’t matter to me what they do. I don’t base my purchase criteria on other peoples actions.

4 – That bubbles are not created by wealthy people buying properties and/or catching knives.

5 – That tighter lending standards will indeed lead to a healthier market, but will be more beneficial to those with wealth then those without it or those at a median income level.

6 – That because of all of the above, people with wealth are better positioned to re-enter the real estate market and will thus do so at an earlier point then more prudent buyers. Thus they (the wealthier) will more then likely have more to choose from and will get the best cracks.

7 – That what was affordable to some in 2003 is LESS affordable or shall I say affordable to less people today and even less in the future.

Is this a little bit more clear?

[SD Realtor]

So I will try one last time to put my point across. Seems as if I said, I am failing miserably.

1 – I am not advocating to buy now. Nor am I saying this is a good deal or is not a good deal.

2 – That the uneven distribution of wealth will not only continue, but depreciation cycles like this will benefit those with wealth more then those without wealth.

3 – That of these same people with wealth may indeed not share the same criteria to buy a home that you or I do. They may wait, they may not wait. Like you, it doesn’t matter to me what they do. I don’t base my purchase criteria on other peoples actions.

4 – That bubbles are not created by wealthy people buying properties and/or catching knives.

5 – That tighter lending standards will indeed lead to a healthier market, but will be more beneficial to those with wealth then those without it or those at a median income level.

6 – That because of all of the above, people with wealth are better positioned to re-enter the real estate market and will thus do so at an earlier point then more prudent buyers. Thus they (the wealthier) will more then likely have more to choose from and will get the best cracks.

7 – That what was affordable to some in 2003 is LESS affordable or shall I say affordable to less people today and even less in the future.

Is this a little bit more clear?

[SD Realtor]

So I will try one last time to put my point across. Seems as if I said, I am failing miserably.

1 – I am not advocating to buy now. Nor am I saying this is a good deal or is not a good deal.

2 – That the uneven distribution of wealth will not only continue, but depreciation cycles like this will benefit those with wealth more then those without wealth.

3 – That of these same people with wealth may indeed not share the same criteria to buy a home that you or I do. They may wait, they may not wait. Like you, it doesn’t matter to me what they do. I don’t base my purchase criteria on other peoples actions.

4 – That bubbles are not created by wealthy people buying properties and/or catching knives.

5 – That tighter lending standards will indeed lead to a healthier market, but will be more beneficial to those with wealth then those without it or those at a median income level.

6 – That because of all of the above, people with wealth are better positioned to re-enter the real estate market and will thus do so at an earlier point then more prudent buyers. Thus they (the wealthier) will more then likely have more to choose from and will get the best cracks.

7 – That what was affordable to some in 2003 is LESS affordable or shall I say affordable to less people today and even less in the future.

Is this a little bit more clear?

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, I have lived in Encinitas for the last 10 years and the change in the typical resident has been astounding. I have a several friend that have lived here their entire lives and they are even more astounded. Encinitas used to be a very laid back, non-pretentious town. It is still a great place but to a great degree it has been yuppified considerably and will never go back to what it was. In 1997, you couldnt find a place to eat dinner after 9 pm now many options abound. In 1997, you couldn’t find a decent meal unless you drove to Del Mar, now there are numerous fine dining options. Whole Foods is opening in downtown Encinitas. The Forum Shops on the border of Carlsbad and Enicnitas brought high end retail to the area. La Costa Glen brought hundreds of very wealthy seniors to the area. Encinitas Ranch brought a massive planned community with golf/ocean views and thousands of 3,000+ sq ft homes. In 1997, the only homes that big were in Olivenhain. In the beach area, bungalows are now torn down and replaced by luxury custom homes at an alarming rate.

Have you been to Encinitas lately?

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, I have lived in Encinitas for the last 10 years and the change in the typical resident has been astounding. I have a several friend that have lived here their entire lives and they are even more astounded. Encinitas used to be a very laid back, non-pretentious town. It is still a great place but to a great degree it has been yuppified considerably and will never go back to what it was. In 1997, you couldnt find a place to eat dinner after 9 pm now many options abound. In 1997, you couldn’t find a decent meal unless you drove to Del Mar, now there are numerous fine dining options. Whole Foods is opening in downtown Encinitas. The Forum Shops on the border of Carlsbad and Enicnitas brought high end retail to the area. La Costa Glen brought hundreds of very wealthy seniors to the area. Encinitas Ranch brought a massive planned community with golf/ocean views and thousands of 3,000+ sq ft homes. In 1997, the only homes that big were in Olivenhain. In the beach area, bungalows are now torn down and replaced by luxury custom homes at an alarming rate.

Have you been to Encinitas lately?

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, I have lived in Encinitas for the last 10 years and the change in the typical resident has been astounding. I have a several friend that have lived here their entire lives and they are even more astounded. Encinitas used to be a very laid back, non-pretentious town. It is still a great place but to a great degree it has been yuppified considerably and will never go back to what it was. In 1997, you couldnt find a place to eat dinner after 9 pm now many options abound. In 1997, you couldn’t find a decent meal unless you drove to Del Mar, now there are numerous fine dining options. Whole Foods is opening in downtown Encinitas. The Forum Shops on the border of Carlsbad and Enicnitas brought high end retail to the area. La Costa Glen brought hundreds of very wealthy seniors to the area. Encinitas Ranch brought a massive planned community with golf/ocean views and thousands of 3,000+ sq ft homes. In 1997, the only homes that big were in Olivenhain. In the beach area, bungalows are now torn down and replaced by luxury custom homes at an alarming rate.

Have you been to Encinitas lately?

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, I have lived in Encinitas for the last 10 years and the change in the typical resident has been astounding. I have a several friend that have lived here their entire lives and they are even more astounded. Encinitas used to be a very laid back, non-pretentious town. It is still a great place but to a great degree it has been yuppified considerably and will never go back to what it was. In 1997, you couldnt find a place to eat dinner after 9 pm now many options abound. In 1997, you couldn’t find a decent meal unless you drove to Del Mar, now there are numerous fine dining options. Whole Foods is opening in downtown Encinitas. The Forum Shops on the border of Carlsbad and Enicnitas brought high end retail to the area. La Costa Glen brought hundreds of very wealthy seniors to the area. Encinitas Ranch brought a massive planned community with golf/ocean views and thousands of 3,000+ sq ft homes. In 1997, the only homes that big were in Olivenhain. In the beach area, bungalows are now torn down and replaced by luxury custom homes at an alarming rate.

Have you been to Encinitas lately?

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, I have lived in Encinitas for the last 10 years and the change in the typical resident has been astounding. I have a several friend that have lived here their entire lives and they are even more astounded. Encinitas used to be a very laid back, non-pretentious town. It is still a great place but to a great degree it has been yuppified considerably and will never go back to what it was. In 1997, you couldnt find a place to eat dinner after 9 pm now many options abound. In 1997, you couldn’t find a decent meal unless you drove to Del Mar, now there are numerous fine dining options. Whole Foods is opening in downtown Encinitas. The Forum Shops on the border of Carlsbad and Enicnitas brought high end retail to the area. La Costa Glen brought hundreds of very wealthy seniors to the area. Encinitas Ranch brought a massive planned community with golf/ocean views and thousands of 3,000+ sq ft homes. In 1997, the only homes that big were in Olivenhain. In the beach area, bungalows are now torn down and replaced by luxury custom homes at an alarming rate.

Have you been to Encinitas lately?

[Eugene]

The original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”

In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)

Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)

I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.

[Eugene]

The original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”

In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)

Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)

I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.

[Eugene]

The original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”

In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)

Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)

I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.

[Eugene]

The original statement to which I responded: “I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas.”

In order to qualify for an interest-only mortgage for a house on Brae Mar Court in 2003, you had to make around 90k. Less if you had a down payment (say, this was your second house) or if you opted for a neg-am loan. A household with two schoolteachers, or one police officer and one clerk, could make that much. Income numbers for 92024 agree with that. Encinitas is above average, but it’s populated by considerable numbers of Joe Blows. It has to compete with other upper-middle-class suburbs and it is not as insulated from overall SoCal RE market as, say, Rancho Santa Fe. And Joe Blow’s purchasing power has been suffering lately (6.5% jumbo IO loans instead of 4.5%, problems with 100% CLTV loans, etc.)

Rising ARM interest rates and disappearance of creative financing have successfully priced out $90k/year households from the area. You seem to be implying that poorer households will be squeezed out of the city and well to do people will take over their properties, turning Encinitas into next Rancho Santa Fe. I disagree. The number of well to do people and the number of attractive properties are fairly constant. Encinitas is not the most attractive place in San Diego County. Instead the market will keep sinking as a whole, until two schoolteachers can afford a 4br in Encinitas again. (Even if they have to get an IO loan and spend 50% of their income on housing)

I expect the return to 2003 affordability levels in most areas. Even at 680k, 645 Brae Mar Ct would be far less affordable to residents of Encinitas today than it was in 2003. Incomes are up 10% (maybe), jumbo fixed interest rates are up 20-25%, and jumbo ARM interest rates are up 50%. The fact that there are 5 knife catchers bidding on this property? For me, not an argument to buy.

[SD Realtor]

I did use current rates. I thought your intent was to show that these homes could be used to illustrate a viable purchase by Joe Blow today, not back in 2003.

I guess we are going in different directions, mine being that Joe Blow is losing ground in the overall race and that his housing selection is indeed shrinking.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I did use current rates. I thought your intent was to show that these homes could be used to illustrate a viable purchase by Joe Blow today, not back in 2003.

I guess we are going in different directions, mine being that Joe Blow is losing ground in the overall race and that his housing selection is indeed shrinking.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I did use current rates. I thought your intent was to show that these homes could be used to illustrate a viable purchase by Joe Blow today, not back in 2003.

I guess we are going in different directions, mine being that Joe Blow is losing ground in the overall race and that his housing selection is indeed shrinking.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I did use current rates. I thought your intent was to show that these homes could be used to illustrate a viable purchase by Joe Blow today, not back in 2003.

I guess we are going in different directions, mine being that Joe Blow is losing ground in the overall race and that his housing selection is indeed shrinking.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

…

In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.

[SD Realtor]

esmith you have a peculiar way of addressing directed points. I thought I was pretty clear.

If you do not want to address my points in a more direct manner then so be it.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

I agree with most of your points with possible exception of the last one. Yes, today’s renters with six- or seven-digit sums in liquid investments are better positioned to take advantage of rock-bottom prices of 2009+ than today’s homeowners. Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!) That’s precisely why prices are going to fall. At least to 2003 affordability level if not lower. (Probably lower if 2003 affordability level means zero down and 45% debt-to-income, and 2010 homebuyer needs a 20% down payment and 30% debt-to-income). I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.

[SD Realtor]

“I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.”

Yeah you are right there. They will not take all of them.

“Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!)”

I blew this one. What I was trying to imply here was that the number of people who could afford the 2003 home in Encinitas in 2003, will be less for a correlating situation in say 2010. Mostly due to tighter lending standards and possibly due to higher interest rates that I assume will produce a vastly different lending environment.

So that last point was not to compare affordability of now verses then but percentage of the population that could afford a corresponding pricing in the future… (hard to illustrate the point but I think you know what I mean)

I can be selfish and say for people who may not be wealthy but who have been stockpiling cash, (like myself and others on this board) we should be okay as long as we exercise patience as you are preaching.

Anyways I’ll let it go. As Ex-sd says peace.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.”

Yeah you are right there. They will not take all of them.

“Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!)”

I blew this one. What I was trying to imply here was that the number of people who could afford the 2003 home in Encinitas in 2003, will be less for a correlating situation in say 2010. Mostly due to tighter lending standards and possibly due to higher interest rates that I assume will produce a vastly different lending environment.

So that last point was not to compare affordability of now verses then but percentage of the population that could afford a corresponding pricing in the future… (hard to illustrate the point but I think you know what I mean)

I can be selfish and say for people who may not be wealthy but who have been stockpiling cash, (like myself and others on this board) we should be okay as long as we exercise patience as you are preaching.

Anyways I’ll let it go. As Ex-sd says peace.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.”

Yeah you are right there. They will not take all of them.

“Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!)”

I blew this one. What I was trying to imply here was that the number of people who could afford the 2003 home in Encinitas in 2003, will be less for a correlating situation in say 2010. Mostly due to tighter lending standards and possibly due to higher interest rates that I assume will produce a vastly different lending environment.

So that last point was not to compare affordability of now verses then but percentage of the population that could afford a corresponding pricing in the future… (hard to illustrate the point but I think you know what I mean)

I can be selfish and say for people who may not be wealthy but who have been stockpiling cash, (like myself and others on this board) we should be okay as long as we exercise patience as you are preaching.

Anyways I’ll let it go. As Ex-sd says peace.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.”

Yeah you are right there. They will not take all of them.

“Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!)”

I blew this one. What I was trying to imply here was that the number of people who could afford the 2003 home in Encinitas in 2003, will be less for a correlating situation in say 2010. Mostly due to tighter lending standards and possibly due to higher interest rates that I assume will produce a vastly different lending environment.

So that last point was not to compare affordability of now verses then but percentage of the population that could afford a corresponding pricing in the future… (hard to illustrate the point but I think you know what I mean)

I can be selfish and say for people who may not be wealthy but who have been stockpiling cash, (like myself and others on this board) we should be okay as long as we exercise patience as you are preaching.

Anyways I’ll let it go. As Ex-sd says peace.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.”

Yeah you are right there. They will not take all of them.

“Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!)”

I blew this one. What I was trying to imply here was that the number of people who could afford the 2003 home in Encinitas in 2003, will be less for a correlating situation in say 2010. Mostly due to tighter lending standards and possibly due to higher interest rates that I assume will produce a vastly different lending environment.

So that last point was not to compare affordability of now verses then but percentage of the population that could afford a corresponding pricing in the future… (hard to illustrate the point but I think you know what I mean)

I can be selfish and say for people who may not be wealthy but who have been stockpiling cash, (like myself and others on this board) we should be okay as long as we exercise patience as you are preaching.

Anyways I’ll let it go. As Ex-sd says peace.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

I agree with most of your points with possible exception of the last one. Yes, today’s renters with six- or seven-digit sums in liquid investments are better positioned to take advantage of rock-bottom prices of 2009+ than today’s homeowners. Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!) That’s precisely why prices are going to fall. At least to 2003 affordability level if not lower. (Probably lower if 2003 affordability level means zero down and 45% debt-to-income, and 2010 homebuyer needs a 20% down payment and 30% debt-to-income). I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.

[Eugene]

I agree with most of your points with possible exception of the last one. Yes, today’s renters with six- or seven-digit sums in liquid investments are better positioned to take advantage of rock-bottom prices of 2009+ than today’s homeowners. Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!) That’s precisely why prices are going to fall. At least to 2003 affordability level if not lower. (Probably lower if 2003 affordability level means zero down and 45% debt-to-income, and 2010 homebuyer needs a 20% down payment and 30% debt-to-income). I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.

[Eugene]

I agree with most of your points with possible exception of the last one. Yes, today’s renters with six- or seven-digit sums in liquid investments are better positioned to take advantage of rock-bottom prices of 2009+ than today’s homeowners. Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!) That’s precisely why prices are going to fall. At least to 2003 affordability level if not lower. (Probably lower if 2003 affordability level means zero down and 45% debt-to-income, and 2010 homebuyer needs a 20% down payment and 30% debt-to-income). I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.

[Eugene]

I agree with most of your points with possible exception of the last one. Yes, today’s renters with six- or seven-digit sums in liquid investments are better positioned to take advantage of rock-bottom prices of 2009+ than today’s homeowners. Yes, houses are less affordable today than they were in 2003 (duh!) That’s precisely why prices are going to fall. At least to 2003 affordability level if not lower. (Probably lower if 2003 affordability level means zero down and 45% debt-to-income, and 2010 homebuyer needs a 20% down payment and 30% debt-to-income). I don’t think that wealthy people can buy off enough houses in Encinitas to keep them unaffordable to poorer people indefinitely.

[SD Realtor]

esmith you have a peculiar way of addressing directed points. I thought I was pretty clear.

If you do not want to address my points in a more direct manner then so be it.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith you have a peculiar way of addressing directed points. I thought I was pretty clear.

If you do not want to address my points in a more direct manner then so be it.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith you have a peculiar way of addressing directed points. I thought I was pretty clear.

If you do not want to address my points in a more direct manner then so be it.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith you have a peculiar way of addressing directed points. I thought I was pretty clear.

If you do not want to address my points in a more direct manner then so be it.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

…

In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.

[Eugene]

…

In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.

[Eugene]

…

In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.

[Eugene]

…

In California, interest-only loans accounted for 61% of the mortgages taken out to buy homes in the first two months of this year [2005], up from 47% in 2004 and less than 2% in 2002, according to LoanPerformance, a unit of First American Corp. Option ARMs, which can result in negative amortization, accounted for nearly one-third of jumbo mortgages — currently loans above $359,650 — in the fourth quarter of 2004, up from roughly 6% in the first quarter of that year.

[Eugene]

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.

You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.

Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.

In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.

[Eugene]

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.

You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.

Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.

In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.

[Eugene]

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.

You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.

Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.

In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.

[Eugene]

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694.

You’re using current rates, but 2003 was a bit different. National average rates for 5/1 IO ARMs were around 4.5%, jumbo or not. 682000 * 0.045 / 12 = $2557. Less if you have a down payment. Total housing payments (mortgage/insurance/etc.) on the order of $3600/month.

Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household.

In 2005, median household income of 92024 was around $77k.

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Actually in order to find the terms of the loans I would need to look at the notes which, while they are recorded documents, are not available for me on Realist. County recorder has them so I have no inclination to dig them up, you can if you like.

Also I know of many people who are very well off who USE I/O loans because they make a better return then the note. So why wouldn’t they do that? No they are not negaming but we have had very lengthy discourse about earning a better return then a mortgage so why tie up funds.

Also you are talking to someone who is way conservative and always errs on the side of a standard fully amortized fixed rate loan. However that is my taste.

610 has a single mortgage for 840k.
622 has one for 749k.
655 has one for 477k.
622 has an original for 551k and two others for a total of 400 since the original.
621 has one for 555.

Also most all interest only loans are a 30 yr amortized loan with a 10 yr I/O period. At 6% this payment is 3410 not 3000. Second this would be a jumbo loan so that 6% rate would not happen, it would be more along the lines of 6.5% so now we are at 3694. Adding on another 600 a month for property tax and now we are at 4294 for simply Interest and taxes.

Not so sure how livable this is for Joe Blow as we have not even purchased his homeowners insurance yet. By the way, the Mello Roos here is 3105 a year and another 119 a month for HOA. So now where you quoted 3k a month my figures are more along the lines of about 4700 a month.

So hmmm… we seem to have a discrepancy there.

*****************

Again, you can speculate all you want about how these people have financed the homes and whether they are Joe Blow median income types or not. Or whether this neighborhood is populated by those types. Personally I would envision this neighborhood to profile alot like some of the similarly priced neighborhoods in CV or 4S. Lots of engineers, or similarly salaried professionals, perhaps even a few dual income types, pulling in a minimum of 100k per household. That is just a guess.

My argument is not that it is not going to go down to 2003 levels esmith. It should… but will there be alot of opportunities and will it go well below the 03 levels? mmmmm… there will be some… I just am not as optimistic as some bears that there will be lots and lots of them. I think they will be scooped up by people who are not as stringent in thier criteria to buy. I am not saying those people are correct in buying… just that they are out there.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

Encinitas has above average incomes in this county. No argument about it. It’s just not so wealthy as to support seven-figure valuations east of 5 without exotic financing.

This particular street was built and sold off in 2003 at a median price of $682,000. You didn’t have to be a lawyer or a surgeon to “afford” that. Monthly payment on an interest-only mortgage of $682,000 is less than 3K/month.

You are a realtor, I believe you have the capability to look up existing mortgages on homes. Could you please check these houses.

621 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 681k)
642 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 682k)
655 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 687k)
622 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2005 for 840k)
610 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2007 for 1050k)

I’ll venture a guess. All five were financed using interest-only mortgages. Furthermore, the latter two are negative amortization loans.

[Eugene]

Encinitas has above average incomes in this county. No argument about it. It’s just not so wealthy as to support seven-figure valuations east of 5 without exotic financing.

This particular street was built and sold off in 2003 at a median price of $682,000. You didn’t have to be a lawyer or a surgeon to “afford” that. Monthly payment on an interest-only mortgage of $682,000 is less than 3K/month.

You are a realtor, I believe you have the capability to look up existing mortgages on homes. Could you please check these houses.

621 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 681k)
642 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 682k)
655 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 687k)
622 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2005 for 840k)
610 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2007 for 1050k)

I’ll venture a guess. All five were financed using interest-only mortgages. Furthermore, the latter two are negative amortization loans.

[Eugene]

Encinitas has above average incomes in this county. No argument about it. It’s just not so wealthy as to support seven-figure valuations east of 5 without exotic financing.

This particular street was built and sold off in 2003 at a median price of $682,000. You didn’t have to be a lawyer or a surgeon to “afford” that. Monthly payment on an interest-only mortgage of $682,000 is less than 3K/month.

You are a realtor, I believe you have the capability to look up existing mortgages on homes. Could you please check these houses.

621 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 681k)
642 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 682k)
655 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 687k)
622 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2005 for 840k)
610 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2007 for 1050k)

I’ll venture a guess. All five were financed using interest-only mortgages. Furthermore, the latter two are negative amortization loans.

[Eugene]

Encinitas has above average incomes in this county. No argument about it. It’s just not so wealthy as to support seven-figure valuations east of 5 without exotic financing.

This particular street was built and sold off in 2003 at a median price of $682,000. You didn’t have to be a lawyer or a surgeon to “afford” that. Monthly payment on an interest-only mortgage of $682,000 is less than 3K/month.

You are a realtor, I believe you have the capability to look up existing mortgages on homes. Could you please check these houses.

621 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 681k)
642 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 682k)
655 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2003 for 687k)
622 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2005 for 840k)
610 Brae Mar Ct (sold in 2007 for 1050k)

I’ll venture a guess. All five were financed using interest-only mortgages. Furthermore, the latter two are negative amortization loans.

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

esmith –

I don’t think what you said is true at all. I do not believe that an average joe blow can afford to buy the home in Encinitas. I also believe that if you took the median income for homeowners in this particular subdivision you will find it is much higher then the median in the country, in the state, and even in the county.

I never said Brae Mar was a playground for the super rich. Yet how many homeowners there in that subdivision that have a salary of 65k a year? My SPECULATIVE statement would be none. In fact, if you went and took a look at the 5 offers that the agent currently has on it, I would speculate none of those offers are from Joe Blows who earn what you are supposing they earn.

Brae Mar is no farther away from Sorrento Valley then 4S Ranch is. It is not as far away as La Costa Valley either.

Hey if you want, go ahead and presuppose that Brae Mar is going to fall to 440 or 500k. You think it is, I do not. I am not stopping you or calling names or anything like that.

So far there are 5 other offers on it and there is no speculation in that statement esmith. So yeah perhaps you are right. Go ahead and pull up a loan program in todays environment that will enable a median income wage earner to make the purchase like you said in todays world.

Personally I don’t see alot of that happening anymore.

I am not trying to say we are at a bottom now or anything like that. Please don’t confuse my posts to be cheerleading for the industry. I am just trying to point out what are facts in the here and now as well as my speculative opinion in the longer run. Perhaps I am way off. I guess we will see.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

This argument has nothing at all to do with Joe Blow. He can wait for the prices in Clairemont or San Marcos or Eastlake to fall to 350 or 400k. Not a problem there. I don’t believe the average Joe Blow lives in Encinitas. I think that is why my point is being widely missed.

Brae Mar Ct is not exactly the playground for the super-rich. It is 2 miles from the beach and relatively far from areas with well-paying jobs. 4br houses in this neighborhood are only going to sell for a million if 4br houses in Eastlake and San Marcos go for 800K. And those will only sell for 800K if 4br houses in Temecula go for 500K.

And, by the way, the average Joe Blow can very well afford to buy a million dollar house in Encinitas, that’s what negative amortization option ARMs are for. You could get a 1M neg-am loan with monthly payments of less than $4000 for a few years (until it resets to fully amortizing).

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[Eugene]

If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

The thing is, by the time they drop to 2000 prices, rents will drop as well. They will be dragged down by local recession and massive oversupply of housing. Your lawyer/exec buddies will contribute to that by buying properties and putting them on the market.

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Let’s put it very simply.
The only reason to get it now for 800 is if you believe that
1) Encinitas as a whole is not going to drop to 800
2) this is the last good deal before the rebound

[sdrealtor]

EX-SD,
If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

Do you honestly believe prices will reach those levels? There are a lot of my neighbors (Drs. lawyers, execs, business owners, wealthy retirees etc. ) that would buy every one of them well before they approached those levels as investments.

[sdrealtor]

EX-SD,
If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

Do you honestly believe prices will reach those levels? There are a lot of my neighbors (Drs. lawyers, execs, business owners, wealthy retirees etc. ) that would buy every one of them well before they approached those levels as investments.

[sdrealtor]

EX-SD,
If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

Do you honestly believe prices will reach those levels? There are a lot of my neighbors (Drs. lawyers, execs, business owners, wealthy retirees etc. ) that would buy every one of them well before they approached those levels as investments.

[sdrealtor]

EX-SD,
If homes in my neighborhood (which rent very very quickly) dropped to 1998 prices they would be cash positive by more than $1000 per month based upon current rents. At 2000 prices they would be cash flow positive by more than $500 per month.

Do you honestly believe prices will reach those levels? There are a lot of my neighbors (Drs. lawyers, execs, business owners, wealthy retirees etc. ) that would buy every one of them well before they approached those levels as investments.

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: I beg to differ. I say that prices will fall back to a minimum of 2000 levels and most likely to 1998 (or lower). If the liars can’t get loans and a decent credit score, proof of income and a reasonable down payment will now be required, just who do you think is going to line up and buy all of this inventory that is already on the market, much less, what’s going to hit the market over the next three years?

BTW: You write exactly like another troll who’s been posting on this forum for the last couple of weeks under various names.
You would be trying to rent out a crap hole of a home near SDSU, would you? 🙂

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: I beg to differ. I say that prices will fall back to a minimum of 2000 levels and most likely to 1998 (or lower). If the liars can’t get loans and a decent credit score, proof of income and a reasonable down payment will now be required, just who do you think is going to line up and buy all of this inventory that is already on the market, much less, what’s going to hit the market over the next three years?

BTW: You write exactly like another troll who’s been posting on this forum for the last couple of weeks under various names.
You would be trying to rent out a crap hole of a home near SDSU, would you? 🙂

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: I beg to differ. I say that prices will fall back to a minimum of 2000 levels and most likely to 1998 (or lower). If the liars can’t get loans and a decent credit score, proof of income and a reasonable down payment will now be required, just who do you think is going to line up and buy all of this inventory that is already on the market, much less, what’s going to hit the market over the next three years?

BTW: You write exactly like another troll who’s been posting on this forum for the last couple of weeks under various names.
You would be trying to rent out a crap hole of a home near SDSU, would you? 🙂

[Ex-SD]

RatherOpinionated: I beg to differ. I say that prices will fall back to a minimum of 2000 levels and most likely to 1998 (or lower). If the liars can’t get loans and a decent credit score, proof of income and a reasonable down payment will now be required, just who do you think is going to line up and buy all of this inventory that is already on the market, much less, what’s going to hit the market over the next three years?

BTW: You write exactly like another troll who’s been posting on this forum for the last couple of weeks under various names.
You would be trying to rent out a crap hole of a home near SDSU, would you? 🙂

[RatherOpinionated]

“If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.”

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Your contrarian troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

“If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.”

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Your contrarian troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

“If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.”

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Your contrarian troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[RatherOpinionated]

“If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.”

If you wait for it to get to 650-700, then someone else will own it instead of you. If you like it at this price, get it. Chances are it won’t drop down to those levels.

Your contrarian troll,
[img_assist|nid=5758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=419|height=500]

[PadreBrian]

2003 price point was hovering around $750K

If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.

[PadreBrian]

2003 price point was hovering around $750K

If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.

[PadreBrian]

2003 price point was hovering around $750K

If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.

[PadreBrian]

2003 price point was hovering around $750K

If 2001 Prices are where the market should be (before the free money was being handed out by the reserve), then 650-700k is where you should aim for.

[Anonymous]

You need to decide if you want to flip the house or resell to a investor. Based upon this determination you can decide if the price is right. I usually figure your offer should be 80% of value for resale to an investor or 70% value if you plan to flip. (You have to figure the value based upon the market in the area.)

I try a offer at 40-60% of value when I approach the bank. Expect them to say “no” and wait for them to respond. Then go to bank with a 2nd offer based upon their counter. Your second offer should be your best offer based upon your expected use once you own it.

[Anonymous]

You need to decide if you want to flip the house or resell to a investor. Based upon this determination you can decide if the price is right. I usually figure your offer should be 80% of value for resale to an investor or 70% value if you plan to flip. (You have to figure the value based upon the market in the area.)

I try a offer at 40-60% of value when I approach the bank. Expect them to say “no” and wait for them to respond. Then go to bank with a 2nd offer based upon their counter. Your second offer should be your best offer based upon your expected use once you own it.

[Anonymous]

You need to decide if you want to flip the house or resell to a investor. Based upon this determination you can decide if the price is right. I usually figure your offer should be 80% of value for resale to an investor or 70% value if you plan to flip. (You have to figure the value based upon the market in the area.)

I try a offer at 40-60% of value when I approach the bank. Expect them to say “no” and wait for them to respond. Then go to bank with a 2nd offer based upon their counter. Your second offer should be your best offer based upon your expected use once you own it.

[Anonymous]

You need to decide if you want to flip the house or resell to a investor. Based upon this determination you can decide if the price is right. I usually figure your offer should be 80% of value for resale to an investor or 70% value if you plan to flip. (You have to figure the value based upon the market in the area.)

I try a offer at 40-60% of value when I approach the bank. Expect them to say “no” and wait for them to respond. Then go to bank with a 2nd offer based upon their counter. Your second offer should be your best offer based upon your expected use once you own it.

[Anonymous]

You need to decide if you want to flip the house or resell to a investor. Based upon this determination you can decide if the price is right. I usually figure your offer should be 80% of value for resale to an investor or 70% value if you plan to flip. (You have to figure the value based upon the market in the area.)

I try a offer at 40-60% of value when I approach the bank. Expect them to say “no” and wait for them to respond. Then go to bank with a 2nd offer based upon their counter. Your second offer should be your best offer based upon your expected use once you own it.

[Author]

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