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SD Realtor
ParticipantAt this point I heavily agree with sdr and esmith. Indeed the data does not support a 3000 sf home going for 470k or some crazy amount of money in the near future. Unless there is a very large spike in unemployment or interest rates I don’t see it happening for a long time based on the raw data.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAt this point I heavily agree with sdr and esmith. Indeed the data does not support a 3000 sf home going for 470k or some crazy amount of money in the near future. Unless there is a very large spike in unemployment or interest rates I don’t see it happening for a long time based on the raw data.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAt this point I heavily agree with sdr and esmith. Indeed the data does not support a 3000 sf home going for 470k or some crazy amount of money in the near future. Unless there is a very large spike in unemployment or interest rates I don’t see it happening for a long time based on the raw data.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.
Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.
So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.
Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure
9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure
9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.
Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.
So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.
Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure
9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure
9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.
Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.
So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.
Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure
9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure
9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.
Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.
So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.
Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure
9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure
9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.
Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.
So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.
Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure
9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure
9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCMcG – My apologies if you have never seen one in the bank before. I do believer you. Yeah Maxine G does pretty darn well. No worries at all.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCMcG – My apologies if you have never seen one in the bank before. I do believer you. Yeah Maxine G does pretty darn well. No worries at all.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCMcG – My apologies if you have never seen one in the bank before. I do believer you. Yeah Maxine G does pretty darn well. No worries at all.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCMcG – My apologies if you have never seen one in the bank before. I do believer you. Yeah Maxine G does pretty darn well. No worries at all.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCMcG – My apologies if you have never seen one in the bank before. I do believer you. Yeah Maxine G does pretty darn well. No worries at all.
SD Realtor
Participantuco –
“I generally use my facts and analysis on this board because I feel the “quality of clientèle” is better. If I try the logic approach to a member of the general public, it is often too much for them to handle and their eyes glaze over. They then grasp a one of the statements the RE hypers have used to counter. Sorry if I sound like Tanta or Calculated Risk…”
Which is a good thing. I am not in stark disagreement with your argument as I said before. In theory it makes perfect sense.
“I was also bringing in the fact that many of the non-savy buyers have already shot their wad… of cash to coin a phrase. They don’t have money to buy in now. The ones that have money to buy in are the savy buyers (who probably haven’t contacted a Realtor yet because they know this thing has legs in the downward direction) and wannabe savy who are fence sitters sitting on the edge of their seat.”
Which makes great sense to me… Uco I wish I could tell you where they come from (the buyers) but I don’t think we will ever see a disruption in the demand until we have a an event… what are they called? Black swan moments? Until we see engineers, biotech people, and the likes of the 150k salaries getting seriously disrupted, the supply lines for the 750k homes will stay pretty much intact. In fact I would say that to be regardless of this non conforming nonsense unless somehow the rates skyrocketed up. In my opinion we need a more substantial event then we have had to push 4S down to 470k or other wishful pricings like people have posted about. I think that in lieu of something like that we will have a very measured ride down over several years. Now contrary moves to subsidize the market, (I lump this move and other political bs in the same basket) are like you said, not even close to being intended to help anyone. They are intended to mask or delay the inevitable.
The fluff that NAR puts out, is to me, no different then the smell I deal with when I change the kids. I hold my nose, wipe em up, and throw the waste in the trash. Your explanation makes perfect sense and in no way do I disagree with the facts. Eventually one thinks, (at least I think) that it all catches up… it has to catch up doesn’t it? Yet I know to many people where this cut will make a difference. Will it push them into the market? Perhaps. Yet when has NAR ever said RE sucks? In a hot market they say buy now before you get priced out and in a p.o.s market they say buy now cuz it is a good deal.
Anyways no need for saying sorry if you sound link Tanta or Calculated Risk at all because I agree. Besides I lurk over there all the time and it all makes sense to me. Believe me what you and they say makes perfect sense to me. I used to not understand buyers psyche but I do now, I am just not good at explaining it.
SD Realtor
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