[Roman]

I should have been a little more analytical in my approach. So,here is a little stats table for US IT contractor from my portfolio (210 contractors).

Correction: I think I’ve mentioned AVERAGE vs. MEAN in my previous post.

US IT Labor Rate – Descriptive statistics

Base Rate
count 210
mean 63.0606
sample variance 1,112.0150
sample standard deviation 33.3469
minimum 18
maximum 221
range 203

1st quartile 34.0000
median 59.0000
3rd quaritle 80.0000
interquartile range 46.0000
mode 80.0000

[Roman]

Ok Gang,

I feel compelled to reply to this message, since this is a little up my alley.

First, I did not even have a Bachelor in 2000, and with 3-4 years experience, and I’ve made $80k. Things changed after the DOT.COM bubble…..

However, to put my 2 cents in this trail, here are some facts.

NOTE: I don’t have SD specific data, as my portfolio of Engineers (contractors/contingent labor) is for US high tech positions (software, hardware, IT architects, PMs etc…..all IT related)

My portfolio of contractors (504 right now), combined with off-shore (India = 294) and local (US = 210) shows something like this:

Local (USA) – IT contractors (high tech engineers/techs) AVE RATE / Hour $63.06 (you have to subtract 20% from the agencies/headhunters mark up) – REAL RATE $ 50.45

Combined (USA + India) – IT Contractors AVE RATE / Hour $ $43.15 (again, subtract 20% markup).

Bottom line, per my local (US portfolio of IT contractors):

US Contractors (Engineering IT jobs) aprox. $50.45 / hour (2,080 x hourly rate = $104,936 average contractor salary / year)

Note: keep in mind, the ratio of US hires vs. off-shore hires is consistently moving toward (off-shoring…..India). However, as some research might have you believe, off-shore outsourcing does create jobs locally (high end…….complexity/management/PM jobs).
Also, keep in mind, that contractors don’t get benefits (401K, medical….etc)

[Roman]

I did not attach the proper type of file, so here it is the full ranking report as PDF

[Roman]

I’ve got to share my story with you. Yesterday in the office, a co-worker of mine who got a lay off notice (60 days), an was walking through the builing talking to people before her time is up. In any event, the woman is not too happy after working here for over 15 years. She seemed depressed and hopeless.

However, she stopped by my cubicle all pale looking telling me that she now knows that now she doesn’t think she’s in such a bad shape after she got back from the Tech group. Apparently, one of the IT techs was now openly complaining about not being able to sell his 2nd house (investment house in Temecula). Needless to say, he’s stressing eveyone else in the group, and he’s probably going to loose his own house in SD along with that. By the way, did I mention he’s purchased a new Truck a couple a months ago?……I’m guessing some HELOC…..

This is what happens when your IT tech guy becomes a INVESTOR-FLIPPER. Above all this, our SD builing could be closed down, so the IT guy is stressed that he could possibly loose his job too…..I wonder how many like this around?

[Roman]

One’s guess could be that if the PPP was available to the public, it would show that NAR economists were already aware & forecasted the RE bubble. Doesn’t this make sense?

[Roman]

From an interview on NPR this morning, the insight information was that 10-15% fluctuation (minus or plus in prices per barrel of oil) is linked to pure speculation. According to the oil analyst, (I don’t remember his name) is that the true value of a barrel of petrol, based on fundamental economics of supply & demand, should be in the low $50s . Hence – or + 10-15% is just pure speculation (specifically based on Geo-Political news…….or BAD news).

However, today’s price is somewhere around $61/ barrel. My guess is there should be some more room to future drops (as long as Iran and Middle East issues are being tamed).

According to the same report, OPEC is working hard to keep the production & price of oil in the low $60s (that is OPEC’s production optimum / equilibrium)

[Roman]

That’s a great article find Powayseller. Unfortunately, our (Piggingtonians’)worries become more of a tracking meeting agenda from US Congress to IMF. Just to talk and trend along would make it IMHO a “rough landing”. The statistical analysis shown in variuos articles would make it a lot worse than that (probably recession). I do rent, and I’m looking forward to the day I could purchase RE for a fair price in San Diego. However, I’m afraid I might be careful what I wish for…..

[Roman]

In today’s real estate poll from CNN Money, here are the results to the burning question (these is online now)

1. How bad will the housing market get?

Crash 22%
Regional bubbles will burst 46%
Gradual orderly slowdown 25%
Too early to say 7%

total responses to this question: 12298

Source: http://money.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/27182.html

[Roman]

I couldn’t restrain from not putting my 2 cents into this subject. Talking about giving financial/RE advice to friends/family is a sure bet to make new enemies. People love to ignore the problem, and I do admire them for that. And DENAIL/IGNORANCE is bliss.

I’ll keep my story short, but for the 3 day long weekend (Labor Day weekend), I’ve had a couple frieds in town from Sunnyvale. They’re great people and highly educated (I mean they’re are both PhD’s in their fields). Talking about rocket scientists…..one of them is indeed that. Needless to say, the couple purchased a home after their school and got great jobs in 2004.Purchased a house for about $550k, and one mentioned (the guy)over the weekend that the house has appreciated more than their sallaries …..aka now on zillow about $740k (4 beds, 2 bets…aprox 1444 sqf..old house).

Anyway, since the subject came up, WHY am I still renting….and I’ve made my argument with my expectation of prices further declining, with a smile on my face.

CONCLUSION: you could sense the reaction and the comeback that….”I don’t think prices will fall”..I mean, even the MOST educated “yes, rocket scientist” are in denial. What could we expect from less educated & comon folk? Not much…..just to ride the market down to reality. In fact, I’ve read a great story from Asian news on US RE market, and it was called “UNREAL ESTATE”…..LOL

[Roman]

Why do we (US) have to shoulder the weight of econ. growth of other nations?

Hmmmm, this becomes more of a political questions with economic/financial implications. However, let’s pick some issues:

– Corporate greeeeeeeed (we all have to get a return in our investment portfolios)
– US Corporations complain about the maturation of their market here (corporations push for new market expansion)
– Cheap wages & more market expansion sound like a good trade for any organization looking for steady growth & ROI for their stakeholders
– Geo-Political pressure to increase trade, strategic allignment with new partners (Eastern EU, Balkans, Asia.. aka old comunist countries)…I know, since I’m from one of those countries.

NOTE: from my limited knowledge, the US model of success (and the financial market definition of success) is to show continous growth. Such growth could only be achieved in big terms via (1) increase market share or (2) new breakthrough technology advancements……I guess we only limit ourselves to the first option.

I’m curious about your opinions, and I hope I did not divert the direction of Powayseller’s post here (this migh be worth a new topic).

[Roman]

JES,

I don’t work for either of those companies. I will not disclose the company and simply doing the math to come up to the 300 jobs lost does not add up due to other changes not captured in this report. Our competitor took away our multi million $ contract and barely absorbed a small percentage of the lost jobs (80 offers from 300 people lost). Not all offers were accepted by the 80 employees that were interviewed (I’d say probably 60 moved over). However, many jobs were not on the report due to job RELOCATIONS to other states from corporate. Ex: help desk and other portions were moved out of state & some employees went along.

Note: I’m fortunately/unfortunately specialized in managing offshore outsourcing (IT & Applications personnel to India). I guess soon they will look to outsource the outsourcer. This is just a matter of time since there is currently a team of Indian co-workers in our building mirroring/supervising various aspects of our daily operation. Hence, with the 130 personnel left in this building (that’s got a 600 personnel capacity), I’m expecting more cuts. Also, these cuts will be made on smaller scale ,less than 50 ea per downsizing incident, to avoid Federally mandated reporting of such news.

I’m guessing that soon I will be looking for a job (I can’t leave now since I’m under a contract). I only hate not being proactive, but that’s life.

How about them apples :0

[Roman]

I can confirm the accuracy of this list since the company I work for is on this list. In fact, the company is on the list with various forecasts, and all came true. I have nearly an empty parking lot in the building I reside. We’ve lost (San Diego, CA location) about 300 jobs.

[Roman]

Indeed a great and insightful presentation. For the longest time, I wished I were a fly on the wall to some of the NAR meetings. I wonder no more…….reality check is here.

Thank you for the article

[Roman]

If I know what I want, I wouldn’t see a reason to use a realtor. I’d definately use Zip Realty or alike online service to take advantage of the savings.

[Roman]

I can’t help it but add a few more:

10. When you go out partying on Tuesday night, get hammered, and wake up the next day in a realtor’s office fully qualified for a loan……because you were asking sporadically “where the hell is my house”……HERE IS A SIGN

11. When you realize that most TV channels dedicate time to programs/shows such as: “flip this house”, “house hunters”, “bargain hunters” , “become a millionaire in RE”, and they all have been in the 6th season rerun ……..HERE IS A SIGN

12. When your Eastern European old friends, who are averaging $200 income per month, buzz you via the internet to help them invest in the US real estate market because it’s a sure investment…….HERE IS A SIGN

[Author]

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