[rocketman]

1. Rent- Pleasanton, CA (have kids – great schools).
2. Moved out of Naples, Fl due to lack of work – sold a bitchen house, doubled $$ in 3 years thanks to the bubble.
3. Sold in 2004 when things really started taking off in Florida.
4. I knew something was going on in 2004 when prices started to soar. Then I realized we were being priced out of the market even after our healthy profit.
5. We are waiting for our daughter to finish high school here in the next 2 years – then we’ll see what to do. Stay in the Bay area and live on a sail boat or move someplace close to the coast and get a great deal on a condo with a dock.
6. N/A
7. I think we are going through some major uncharted waters (US / Global economy)in the next few years. So I’m into investing on the lee side and see what happens. We’re definitely stuck here for 2 more years.

[rocketman]

Chris, I appreciate your advice tremendously. It is nice to get the sophisticated opinion you offer. As an average investor, I can only go by the tools presented to me by a few different resources. I see that gold (gray ) has been increasing in value, paralleling prime (blue) and oil (brown). The aberration in the 80’s was due, I believe, to a falling dollar. Now with the problem we foresee with real estate, China and the deficit don’t you foresee that the same psychology will apply in the next year or so. Of course maybe the price will fall a bit, but drop >150 after 574? Would you give me some more feedback on this? – Thanks
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[rocketman]

Now that 98 percent of the media is controlled by two major share holding corporations and one foreign investor I’ve noticed that there is more sensationalism and less focus on domestic and foreign news. Over the past five years I’ve seen more and more network news stations dropping off the air.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t watch a lot of television, but I do consider myself somewhat of a “news hound” and just want to have a wide variety of news (print, radio, TV and internet) with as much unbiased facts as possible. Editorials and opposing views are welcomed as well.

It seems the Internet is turning out to be the most desirable place to google news stories – however, Google has shareholders too, as well as friends in Government (shhhh..).

The only national news on cable here in SF are CNN, Fox (if you consider Fox news) and BBC. MSNBC is not much different than CNN. I thought Larry King was into interviewing celebs – now he’s practically on the front lines. What’s up with that? Maybe Jerry Springer will be hosting “Suni’s vs Shites tonight at 6:00pm”. How about Oprah interviewing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – Now there’s an interview I’d want to watch :-). Next: Mike Wallace OUT – Katie Kouric IN.

[rocketman]

Irrational Exuberance is both manifested in politics and economics as illustrated here in this topic. People are creatures of elevating fear and status seeking without regard to cost. Case in point: Fear of terrorism and the fear of not be being included in home ownership are two examples of this same manifestation. Read Noam Chomsky’s views on the influence of corporate mass media and politics along with Robert Schiller’s views of consensus seeking belief systems, and the reasons for our predicament politically and economically are apparent.

I remember Osama Bin Laden wrote a letter to George W. Bush outlining the reasons for the Sept. 11 attacks. I couldn’t find the letter in any local newspaper, so I went to the Aljazeera website, and of course it was headline news. The letter stated that Bin Laden witnessed American attacks against his Muslim brothers and that he would retaliate someday which produced the destruction of the Twin Towers in New York. He also stated in the letter that his goal was to bankrupt America just like he and his fighters bankrupted the Soviet Union fighting an endless war in Afghanistan.

My paternal family has been in America since 1790. Most of the men in my family have been fighting in just wars since the war of 1812. I was personally involved in the Viet Nam war – not as infantry, but as a 1A0 medic. I didn’t believe in that war just as much as I don’t believe in the war in Iraq. Do I believe we should be in Afghanistan? No. Do I believe we should cut and run from Iraq? Yes. Mission accomplished – right? Time to move out and move on.

There have been a thousand years of conquering going on in Asia and especially in the Mesopotamia Valley. The British were the last ones to get there asses kicked. Volumes of books have been written of their mistakes in trying to create a democracy in a theocratic civilization. Had George Bush studied up a little on this subject? Where are all the think tanks of great intelligence advisors? AS an average guy I knew before one jet flew a sortie over Baghdad what the out come was going to be – urban gorilla war fare amongst civilians! Say, maybe I should be getting paid what all the consultants in DC are being paid. Obviously unless you go along with the agenda, you’re out.

Personally I lost my job in Florida at post dot.com boom and right before Sept. 11th. The economy was at a stand still for three years. Instead of pouring Federal funds into security and technology in America, Iraq and Haliburton became the beneficiaries of our Republican tax disposal. I finally had to bail out and move to SF to find work. Luckily the speculators started flipping houses in Florida and I walked out with twice as much as I paid for the house I mortgaged in matter of three years.

As far as a two party system in America:. I have to agree with powayseller. I have been a Democrat all my life but now I switching to Independent. I can’t stand either of the two parties.

Fear is what is generated to bred compliance and consensus amongst the masses. It’s been done many times in history. Government becomes a police state. Freedoms are overlooked in lieu of “Protecting our Security”. Sound familiar? Why don’t we just throw out the Constitution and start over? Have you been to a place where Bush is visiting lately? How about to demonstrate your opposition to the Iraq War? The last one I was at they kept demonstrators one mile away from any motor pool or facility he was to speak at. You couldn’t get close. He’s afraid to be seen in Public – anywhere. Check it out.

Re Terri Shiavo. I was in Florida when this story was unfolding. I couldn’t believe that the Republicans made such an effort to save a woman, who was examined by top medical experts, who had no chance of recovery, who left the decision to her best friend, lover and husband to do what was in her best interest. Then I saw pictures of hundreds of innocent children and parents killed in Iraq and being called untargeted “collateral” on CNN. I think of my son and daughter, who I would take a bullet for and wonder… What is this? A fu*king nightmare or what?

[rocketman]

Gold follows oil. Do you see $55.00 oil again in the future? Sorry, I don’t think so.

[rocketman]

Are you JUST starting to see the true side of this idiot and his cabinet? I wash my hands – I never voted for him.

[rocketman]

Thanks Powerseller

I am glad you said that you were nervous to short LEND. I am a little too nervous to jump in right now as well. I think we missed the boat on LEND (down .01% today) until the Fed makes another cut.

As another note, the Network’s up here in the Bay area have been running short news stories on the decline of real estate prices up here in the Bay area. Someone (of RE authority) has been sending them PR reports that prices have declined 25% (what a bunch of baloney) and that this is a “good time to jump in and buy”. I was thinking of sending them a statement indicating that they need to check their sources for accuracy before releasing such news.

[rocketman]

I can imagine that they might be buying for that reason, however if they can move volume like that, then yes, I would like to sell them a bridge like the one I sold Robert McCulloch.

[rocketman]

I’ll be glad to do it. My answers might be a little skewed since I live in Pleasanton (Bay area) and the market is relatively only “flattening-out” here. I think there is an absolute lull going on around here since the Fed paused.

[rocketman]

I feel the same way. I’ve been trying to warn everyone I know. I send them links to all the information I can find. I find that my friends and relatives who own real estate in California are in denial. They believe that prices will “flatten out” since California is so desireable. Those who don’t own property want to listen. That’s the way it’s been since June. So now that I’ve warned everyone I know, I am going to stop being an evangelist and just pay attention for new investments.

[rocketman]

Greetings from the Bay area. I enjoy this blog community and read everyone’s contribution every morning. What a fascinating group of people who enjoy this most infromative website. I believe I am reading opinions from very educated investors, some weary speculators and some enthusiastic buyers who have been driven out of the market for years and have been looking forward to the predicted demise (like myself).

I believe that if most of us who have been on the “side lines” are even more patient, more cognizant of the market conditions, and saving more cash, then we will prevail to cash-in at a time most adequate to our needs and desires. If however, individuals start to see prices at a comfort level that they believe they can afford, and if the financing is available, then the market will stop falling and the demand will rise. Take for example a house that sold for $250k in 1999 and is now priced at $750k. Would you want to buy it at $500k? Or would you rather see the price of that house fall, let’s say to $300k or $350k. My point is that prices will fall and level to realistic pricing if we all pull together and don’t get to anxious to jump right in. Especially if we see gradual price reductions and unbelievable incentives. Time is on our side now, be as pateint as possible.

[rocketman]

Now that’s my kind of Realtor! I like her. Although I think she’s about one or two years ahead of her time.

[rocketman]

I just read the San Diego Chamber forecast and I didn’t know if I should’ve been crying or laughing. I found so many inconsistent opinions about the health of the present and future economy that I was confused throughout most of the statement. On one hand it says that the population will increase by 10 – 12% then on the other hand it observes that only 1% will be middle income earners.

I like the apocalyptic “Perfect Storm” theory. I’ve never seen it described so nonchalantly. It appears they tried to stay upbeat throughout the paper with a lot of smoke and mirrors, however, the Chamber looks as confused as all of us and appears to be in a nervous “wait and see” mode for the next year.

[rocketman]

I lived in Naples, Florida and sold my house in 2004 to move to the Bay area. I sold my new 2400 sq ft house with pool for $460k. Since then it has flipped 3 times and now is selling for $750k. This was a nice family gated community which at one time was affordable. I hope some of these ruthless flippers get a good spanking out there!

[rocketman]

This is a very intersesting website. I especially like this article:

http://www.hightower-realty.com/market-report-july-2006.htm

 

Thanks!

[Author]

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